Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 02:09

Union Berlin

09:30

Borussia Dortmund

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 990h before kick-off

Union Berlin win

28.4%

model 33.1%

Draw

27.5%

model 25.2%

Borussia Dortmund win

44.1%

model 41.7%

282844

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.9%
0-1 9.1%
1-2 8.9%
1-0 8.0%
2-1 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.8%	Under 2.5	47.2%
BTTS yes	56.4%	BTTS no	43.6%
Union Berlin 1+	72.8%	Union Berlin 2+	37.4%
Borussia Dortmund 1+	77.5%	Borussia Dortmund 2+	43.9%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.49. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

74/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

85%

★ Best pick

1-3 goals

Multi goal · usually 51%

62.7% fair odds 1.60

strong signal · 3105 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time · usually 79%

83.0% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1236 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger rating, 1724 Elo against 1446.
Borussia Dortmund have created 2.23 xG a match over their last five while Union Berlin have allowed 2.30.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
Away from home Borussia Dortmund average 1.57 xG a match.

Risk factors

The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.85).
Union Berlin have scored 2.40 a match from 1.47 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Borussia Dortmund have an estimated 44.1% win probability, against 28.4% for Union Berlin and 27.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.30 for Union Berlin and 1.49 for Borussia Dortmund.

Why Union Berlin

Union Berlin have created 1.47 xG a match over their last five while Borussia Dortmund have allowed 1.27. At home Union Berlin average 1.96 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.5%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.30 to 1.49. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Borussia Dortmund can win

Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger rating, 1724 Elo against 1446. Borussia Dortmund have created 2.23 xG a match over their last five while Union Berlin have allowed 2.30. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five. Away from home Borussia Dortmund average 1.57 xG a match.

Key players

Union Berlin's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Andrej Ilic (0.44), Emmanuel Latte Lath (0.26), Oliver Burke (0.23). Borussia Dortmund's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Serhou Guirassy (0.60), Maximilian Beier (0.39), Julian Ryerson (0.36).

Availability

2 of Union Berlin's top three contributors did not start their last match. Union Berlin changed goalkeeper for their last match. 36% of Union Berlin's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Union Berlin: 42% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 16.5 faced, 0.67 xG a match from set pieces. Borussia Dortmund: 52% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 10.2 faced, 0.54 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Borussia Dortmund are the model's most likely outcome at 44.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%. Confidence 74/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Union Berlin have scored 16 from 14.7 expected and conceded 23 from 23.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LDLLLDWWDL last 10 scored 16 from 14.7 xG conceded 23 from 23.0 xG

Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWLLWLWWWW last 10 scored 20 from 22.3 xG conceded 10 from 12.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	332542	1.30–1.49	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	212257	1.13–1.96	1-1 10%	60%	58%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to win	43.8%	43.0%	33.7%	1.28×	2.32
Union Berlin to win	31.8%	30.4%	41.6%	0.73×	3.30
Draw	24.4%	24.5%	24.8%	0.98×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund & both teams score	22.6%	21.9%	18.4%	1.19×	4.57
Borussia Dortmund & not both score	21.2%	21.9%	15.5%	1.41×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	19.0%	17.9%	19.1%	0.94×	5.58
Union Berlin & both teams score	16.9%	17.9%	22.2%	0.81×	5.58
Union Berlin & not both score	14.9%	13.3%	19.6%	0.68×	7.54
Draw & not both score	5.4%	8.4%	5.9%	1.43×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund & over 1.5	35.2%	34.9%	27.8%	1.25×	2.87
Borussia Dortmund & over 2.5	28.4%	26.0%	23.6%	1.10×	3.84
Borussia Dortmund & under 3.5	28.2%	26.0%	19.8%	1.32×	3.84
Union Berlin & over 1.5	24.7%	21.7%	35.4%	0.61×	4.62
Union Berlin & under 3.5	21.5%	21.7%	21.5%	1.01×	4.62
Union Berlin & over 2.5	19.9%	18.0%	29.4%	0.61×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	19.0%	18.0%	19.1%	0.94×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	16.8%	18.0%	15.5%	1.16×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.8%	18.0%	15.5%	1.16×	5.56
Borussia Dortmund & under 2.5	15.4%	18.0%	10.3%	1.75×	5.56
Borussia Dortmund & over 3.5	15.6%	18.0%	14.1%	1.28×	5.56
Union Berlin & under 2.5	11.9%	12.9%	12.3%	1.04×	7.77
Union Berlin & over 3.5	10.3%	12.9%	20.3%	0.64×	7.77
Borussia Dortmund & under 1.5	8.6%	7.9%	6.0%	1.31×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	7.7%	7.9%	9.5%	0.83×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	7.7%	7.9%	9.5%	0.83×	12.70
Union Berlin & under 1.5	7.1%	7.9%	6.3%	1.24×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	5.4%	7.9%	5.9%	1.35×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (1UP)	60.6%	63.0%	52.9%	1.19×	1.59
Union Berlin (1UP)	50.3%	52.5%	59.6%	0.88×	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (2UP)	43.8%	47.7%	36.6%	1.30×	2.10
Union Berlin (2UP)	31.8%	30.8%	45.0%	0.69×	3.24

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to win 2nd half	36.5%	36.1%	37.1%	0.97×	2.77
2nd half drawn	34.3%	34.5%	33.4%	1.03×	2.90
Borussia Dortmund to win 2nd half	29.3%	26.3%	29.6%	0.89×	3.80

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (+2.5)	95.2%	96.3%	88.3%	1.09×	1.04
Borussia Dortmund (+1.5)	86.1%	88.5%	75.3%	1.18×	1.13
Borussia Dortmund (+0.5)	68.2%	68.7%	58.4%	1.18×	1.46
Union Berlin (+0.5)	56.2%	57.0%	66.3%	0.86×	1.75
Borussia Dortmund (-0.5)	43.8%	43.0%	33.7%	1.28×	2.33
Union Berlin (-0.5)	31.8%	31.3%	41.6%	0.75×	3.20
Union Berlin (-1.5)	13.9%	11.5%	24.7%	0.47×	8.69
Union Berlin (-2.5)	4.8%	3.7%	11.7%	0.32×	26.76

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to concede	73.5%	76.5%	78.8%	0.97×	1.31
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet	26.5%	23.5%	21.2%	1.11×	4.25

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet in 1st half	65.4%	69.1%	48.2%	1.43×	1.45
Borussia Dortmund to concede in 1st half	34.6%	30.9%	51.8%	0.60×	3.23

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund under 3.5 goals	92.2%	92.3%	92.6%	1.00×	1.08
Borussia Dortmund over 0.5 goals	79.8%	76.3%	74.7%	1.02×	1.31
Borussia Dortmund under 2.5 goals	78.4%	76.2%	79.0%	0.97×	1.31
Borussia Dortmund under 1.5 goals	52.6%	53.7%	57.1%	0.94×	1.86
Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 goals	47.4%	46.3%	42.9%	1.08×	2.16
Borussia Dortmund over 2.5 goals	21.6%	23.8%	21.0%	1.13×	4.21
Borussia Dortmund under 0.5 goals	20.2%	23.7%	25.3%	0.94×	4.21
Borussia Dortmund over 3.5 goals	7.8%	7.7%	7.4%	1.03×	13.03

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund under 1.5 in 1st half	80.0%	76.4%	85.7%	0.89×	1.31
Borussia Dortmund over 0.5 in 1st half	56.2%	62.3%	45.6%	1.36×	1.61
Borussia Dortmund under 0.5 in 1st half	43.8%	37.7%	54.4%	0.69×	2.65
Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 in 1st half	20.0%	23.6%	14.3%	1.66×	4.23

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (away no bet)	56.6%	57.4%	62.6%	0.92×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	43.4%	42.6%	37.4%	1.14×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund even goals	52.0%	52.8%	53.2%	0.99×	1.89
Borussia Dortmund odd goals	48.0%	47.2%	46.8%	1.01×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.3%	82.9%	75.8%	1.09×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.7%	17.1%	24.2%	0.70×	5.85

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	67.7%	68.7%	72.3%	0.95×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	32.3%	31.3%	27.7%	1.13×	3.19

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	59.2%	55.3%	66.9%	0.83×	1.81
Borussia Dortmund to score 2+ in a row	38.1%	36.5%	34.7%	1.05×	2.74
Union Berlin to score 2+ in a row	28.7%	25.1%	42.3%	0.59×	3.99
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.7%	19.5%	29.5%	0.66×	5.13
Borussia Dortmund to score 3+ in a row	13.7%	12.2%	12.8%	0.95×	8.19
Union Berlin to score 3+ in a row	8.4%	5.7%	17.6%	0.32×	17.61

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.4%	11.5%	9.8%	1.17×	8.73
0-1	8.6%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.48
1-2	9.1%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.48
0-2	6.9%	7.4%	4.4%	1.67×	13.48
1-0	7.1%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.48
2-1	7.6%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.48
0-0	5.4%	7.4%	5.9%	1.27×	13.48
2-2	6.0%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.48
1-3	4.8%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.46
2-0	4.7%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	58.46
0-3	3.7%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.47
0-4	1.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.48
1-4	1.9%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.48
2-3	3.2%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.47
2-4	1.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.48
3-0	2.1%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.48
3-1	3.3%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	58.47
3-2	2.7%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.47
3-3	1.4%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.48
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.49
4-0	0.7%	1.7%	3.6%	0.47×	58.49
4-1	1.1%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.48
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.48
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.9%	1.80×	58.49
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.60×	58.49
Any other score	3.5%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund leading at HT (DNB)	70.5%	71.3%	44.5%	1.60×	1.40
Union Berlin leading at HT (DNB)	29.5%	28.7%	55.5%	0.52×	3.48

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin or Borussia Dortmund (12)	75.6%	75.5%	75.2%	1.01×	1.32
Borussia Dortmund or draw (X2)	68.2%	69.6%	58.4%	1.19×	1.44
Union Berlin or draw (1X)	56.2%	57.0%	66.3%	0.86×	1.76

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund or draw at HT	82.2%	84.4%	63.4%	1.33×	1.18
Union Berlin or Borussia Dortmund at HT	60.4%	62.0%	65.8%	0.94×	1.61
Union Berlin or draw at HT	57.4%	56.9%	70.7%	0.80×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund or draw (1UP)	68.2%	76.0%	65.1%	1.17×	1.32
Union Berlin or draw (1UP)	56.2%	62.6%	73.5%	0.85×	1.60

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin or draw in 2nd half	70.7%	73.7%	70.4%	1.05×	1.36
Union Berlin or Borussia Dortmund in 2nd half	65.7%	65.5%	66.6%	0.98×	1.53
Borussia Dortmund or draw in 2nd half	63.5%	63.9%	62.9%	1.02×	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.3%	61.5%	53.7%	1.14×	1.63
Neither half drawn	39.7%	38.5%	46.3%	0.83×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (DNB)	57.9%	58.3%	44.7%	1.30×	1.72
Union Berlin (DNB)	42.1%	41.7%	55.3%	0.76×	2.40

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to score first	51.7%	53.8%	43.6%	1.23×	1.86
Union Berlin to score first	42.9%	41.8%	50.7%	0.82×	2.39
No goal scored	5.4%	7.4%	5.9%	1.27×	13.43

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.6%	54.9%	59.3%	0.93×	1.82
Not both teams to score	41.4%	45.1%	40.7%	1.11×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	47.2%	44.3%	49.7%	0.89×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	32.6%	34.3%	28.2%	1.22×	2.92
Both score & under 2.5	11.4%	12.3%	9.8%	1.26×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	8.7%	8.4%	12.7%	0.66×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.9%	83.0%	79.7%	1.04×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	18.2%	17.0%	20.3%	0.84×	5.90

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	68.0%	67.6%	65.6%	1.03×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	32.0%	32.4%	34.4%	0.94×	3.09

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	54.8%	56.1%	51.7%	1.09×	1.78
Both score 2nd half only	25.8%	26.5%	27.7%	0.95×	3.78
Both score 1st half only	13.2%	10.8%	14.1%	0.76×	9.29
Both score in both halves	6.2%	6.8%	6.8%	0.99×	14.80

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.5%	82.3%	79.2%	1.04×	1.22
Both teams to score by HT	19.5%	17.7%	20.8%	0.85×	5.65

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	58.0%	57.3%	66.9%	0.86×	1.74
A half without a goal	42.0%	42.7%	33.1%	1.29×	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.3%	47.4%	38.8%	1.22×	2.11
4-6 goals	30.6%	30.7%	39.9%	0.77×	3.25
0-1 goals	21.1%	22.8%	17.9%	1.28×	4.39
7+ goals	3.0%	1.8%	3.8%	0.48×	54.49

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to score exactly 1	32.3%	33.8%	32.0%	1.06×	2.96
Borussia Dortmund to score exactly 2	25.8%	27.4%	22.0%	1.25×	3.65
Borussia Dortmund to score 3+	21.6%	22.4%	21.0%	1.06×	4.46
Borussia Dortmund to score exactly 0	20.2%	22.4%	25.3%	0.88×	4.47

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to score exactly 1	35.2%	35.6%	29.1%	1.22×	2.81
Union Berlin to score exactly 0	26.5%	26.5%	21.2%	1.25×	3.77
Union Berlin to score exactly 2	23.4%	23.2%	22.6%	1.03×	4.30
Union Berlin to score 3+	14.9%	14.3%	27.4%	0.52×	6.97

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund leading at HT	42.6%	43.1%	29.3%	1.47×	2.32
Draw at HT	39.6%	38.0%	34.2%	1.11×	2.63
Union Berlin leading at HT	17.8%	15.6%	36.6%	0.43×	6.42

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund -1: 1	56.2%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Borussia Dortmund -1: 2	22.3%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Borussia Dortmund -1: X	21.5%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (0:1)	68.2%	65.5%	58.4%	1.12×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	17.9%	17.8%	17.1%	1.04×	5.63
Union Berlin (0:1)	13.9%	13.9%	24.7%	0.56×	7.22

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (0:2)	86.1%	86.9%	75.3%	1.15×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.1%	7.7%	13.1%	0.59×	12.93
Union Berlin (0:2)	4.8%	3.8%	11.7%	0.32×	26.47

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (0:3)	95.2%	96.6%	88.3%	1.09×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.5%	2.4%	5.1%	0.47×	42.11
Union Berlin (0:3)	1.4%	2.4%	6.8%	0.35×	42.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (0:4)	98.6%	98.1%	93.2%	1.05×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	5.2%	0.23×	83.56
Union Berlin (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	1.7%	0.69×	83.65

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (1:0)	56.2%	58.0%	66.3%	0.88×	1.72
Borussia Dortmund (1:0)	22.3%	21.8%	17.4%	1.25×	4.59
Draw (1:0)	21.5%	21.8%	16.5%	1.32×	4.59

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (2:0)	77.7%	80.3%	82.6%	0.97×	1.25
Draw (2:0)	13.2%	10.4%	10.0%	1.04×	9.63
Borussia Dortmund (2:0)	9.1%	6.5%	7.6%	0.85×	15.47

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.4%	48.1%	46.9%	1.03×	2.08
1st half highest scoring	28.6%	26.5%	26.3%	1.01×	3.77
Halves equal	24.1%	24.1%	26.9%	0.90×	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to concede	79.8%	76.0%	74.7%	1.02×	1.32
Union Berlin clean sheet	20.2%	24.0%	25.3%	0.95×	4.17

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to concede in 1st half	56.2%	62.3%	45.6%	1.36×	1.61
Union Berlin clean sheet in 1st half	43.8%	37.7%	54.4%	0.69×	2.65

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin under 3.5 goals	95.4%	96.4%	88.6%	1.09×	1.04
Union Berlin under 2.5 goals	85.1%	87.2%	72.6%	1.20×	1.15
Union Berlin over 0.5 goals	73.5%	74.2%	78.8%	0.94×	1.35
Union Berlin under 1.5 goals	61.7%	63.5%	50.2%	1.27×	1.58
Union Berlin over 1.5 goals	38.3%	36.5%	49.8%	0.73×	2.74
Union Berlin under 0.5 goals	26.5%	25.8%	21.2%	1.22×	3.87
Union Berlin over 2.5 goals	14.9%	12.8%	27.4%	0.47×	7.84
Union Berlin over 3.5 goals	4.6%	3.6%	11.4%	0.32×	27.41

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin under 1.5 in 1st half	93.2%	95.4%	80.8%	1.18×	1.05
Union Berlin under 0.5 in 1st half	65.4%	67.8%	48.2%	1.41×	1.48
Union Berlin over 0.5 in 1st half	34.6%	32.2%	51.8%	0.62×	3.11
Union Berlin over 1.5 in 1st half	6.8%	4.6%	19.2%	0.24×	21.95

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (home no bet)	64.2%	60.2%	57.6%	1.05×	1.66
Draw (home no bet)	35.8%	39.8%	42.4%	0.94×	2.52

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin even goals	53.5%	50.6%	52.5%	0.96×	1.98
Union Berlin odd goals	46.5%	49.4%	47.5%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.7%	28.9%	23.3%	1.24×	3.46
HT 0-1	23.6%	24.1%	16.5%	1.46×	4.15
HT 1-0	12.2%	10.9%	19.3%	0.56×	9.16
HT 1-1	10.0%	10.9%	9.8%	1.11×	9.18
HT 0-2	9.7%	7.1%	7.1%	1.00×	14.01
Any other HT score	6.0%	7.1%	6.7%	1.07×	14.07
HT 1-2	4.1%	2.3%	3.5%	0.66×	43.31
HT 2-0	2.6%	2.3%	9.5%	0.24×	43.42
HT 2-1	2.1%	2.3%	4.3%	0.54×	43.45
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.3%	1.3%	1.81×	43.55

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund at HT / Borussia Dortmund at FT	30.8%	32.7%	20.3%	1.61×	3.05
Draw at HT / Union Berlin at FT	14.5%	12.7%	10.6%	1.20×	7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.6%	12.7%	13.9%	0.91×	7.88
Union Berlin at HT / Union Berlin at FT	13.3%	12.7%	28.1%	0.45×	7.89
Draw at HT / Borussia Dortmund at FT	11.6%	12.7%	10.0%	1.27×	7.90
Borussia Dortmund at HT / Draw at FT	7.7%	6.0%	6.0%	1.00×	16.66
Borussia Dortmund at HT / Union Berlin at FT	4.0%	3.5%	3.3%	1.04×	28.81
Union Berlin at HT / Draw at FT	3.1%	3.5%	5.1%	0.68×	28.84
Union Berlin at HT / Borussia Dortmund at FT	1.4%	3.5%	3.8%	0.91×	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to score last	51.7%	51.9%	44.5%	1.17×	1.93
Union Berlin to score last	42.9%	40.1%	49.8%	0.80×	2.50
No goal scored	5.4%	7.4%	5.9%	1.27×	13.43

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.6%	92.7%	94.1%	0.98×	1.08
Borussia Dortmund to lead by 1 at any time	60.6%	61.2%	52.9%	1.16×	1.63
Union Berlin to lead by 1 at any time	50.3%	50.6%	59.6%	0.85×	1.98
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	49.2%	44.1%	55.9%	0.79×	2.27
Borussia Dortmund to lead by 2 at any time	29.3%	25.5%	23.6%	1.08×	3.92
Union Berlin to lead by 2 at any time	20.2%	19.6%	33.1%	0.59×	5.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.1%	14.9%	25.7%	0.58×	6.70
Borussia Dortmund to lead by 3 at any time	11.5%	10.5%	10.3%	1.01×	9.57
Union Berlin to lead by 3 at any time	6.6%	6.6%	15.5%	0.43×	15.10

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.0%	87.4%	83.2%	1.05×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.4%	78.6%	72.3%	1.09×	1.27
2-6 goals	76.0%	78.6%	78.5%	1.00×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.3%	72.4%	71.2%	1.02×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.4%	60.3%	1.05×	1.58
1-3 goals	61.0%	63.4%	50.8%	1.25×	1.58
3-6 goals	53.0%	53.2%	58.5%	0.91×	1.88
3-5 goals	48.3%	48.7%	51.3%	0.95×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.3%	48.7%	38.8%	1.26×	2.06
1-2 goals	38.7%	39.2%	32.1%	1.22×	2.55
3-4 goals	38.8%	39.2%	40.3%	0.97×	2.55
4-6 goals	30.6%	35.4%	39.9%	0.89×	2.83
4-5 goals	25.9%	30.2%	32.6%	0.93×	3.31
5-6 goals	14.2%	14.9%	18.4%	0.81×	6.72
7+ goals	3.0%	2.6%	3.8%	0.67×	39.20

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund never behind	44.3%	48.4%	40.4%	1.20×	2.07
Union Berlin never behind	34.1%	35.7%	47.1%	0.76×	2.80

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.8%	44.8%	1.14×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.2%	55.2%	0.89×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.1%	51.7%	52.6%	0.98×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.9%	48.3%	47.4%	1.02×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.8%	52.1%	52.9%	0.98×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.2%	47.9%	47.1%	1.02×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.6%	92.3%	94.1%	0.98×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.4%	92.3%	88.9%	1.04×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	82.8%	82.4%	78.0%	1.06×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	78.9%	77.4%	82.1%	0.94×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	66.4%	66.2%	56.5%	1.17×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	56.0%	58.8%	62.2%	0.95×	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	44.0%	41.2%	37.8%	1.09×	2.43
Over 3.5 goals	33.6%	33.8%	43.5%	0.78×	2.96
Under 1.5 goals	21.1%	22.6%	17.9%	1.27×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	17.2%	17.6%	22.0%	0.80×	5.68
Over 5.5 goals	7.6%	7.7%	11.1%	0.70×	12.92
Under 0.5 goals	5.4%	7.7%	5.9%	1.32×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.9%	97.2%	95.9%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.5%	92.5%	87.6%	1.06×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	79.4%	75.9%	72.0%	1.06×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	72.7%	72.6%	77.7%	0.93×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	56.7%	55.4%	46.5%	1.19×	1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	43.3%	44.6%	53.5%	0.83×	2.24
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	27.4%	27.4%	22.3%	1.23×	3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	20.6%	24.1%	28.0%	0.86×	4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.5%	7.5%	12.4%	0.61×	13.25
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.1%	2.8%	4.1%	0.68×	36.13

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.8%	89.0%	84.8%	1.05×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.3%	71.2%	76.7%	0.93×	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	64.5%	63.7%	58.8%	1.08×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.5%	36.3%	41.2%	0.88×	2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.7%	28.8%	23.3%	1.24×	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.2%	11.0%	15.2%	0.73×	9.05

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.3%	82.8%	84.3%	0.98×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	76.4%	79.7%	73.4%	1.09×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	50.1%	53.1%	44.7%	1.19×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	49.9%	46.9%	55.3%	0.85×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	23.6%	20.3%	26.6%	0.76×	4.93
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.7%	17.2%	15.7%	1.10×	5.81

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin not to score in both halves	79.4%	78.3%	64.8%	1.21×	1.28
Borussia Dortmund not to score in both halves	69.8%	70.6%	72.4%	0.97×	1.42
Borussia Dortmund to score in both halves	30.2%	29.4%	27.6%	1.07×	3.40
Union Berlin to score in both halves	20.6%	21.7%	35.2%	0.62×	4.61

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	58.6%	58.4%	59.3%	0.98×	1.71
Only Borussia Dortmund scores	21.2%	22.3%	15.5%	1.44×	4.48
Only Union Berlin scores	14.9%	10.9%	19.6%	0.56×	9.14
Neither team scores	5.4%	7.2%	5.9%	1.23×	13.93

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.0%	22.6%	20.1%	1.13×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	18.8%	1.20×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	16.4%	17.4%	21.7%	0.80×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	15.7%	17.4%	12.2%	1.43×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	9.6%	7.6%	11.1%	0.69×	13.08
6 or more goals	7.6%	7.6%	11.1%	0.69×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	5.4%	7.6%	5.9%	1.30×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	49.9%	45.2%	55.3%	0.82×	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	31.4%	33.4%	29.2%	1.15×	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	18.7%	17.2%	15.7%	1.10×	5.82

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin not to win both halves	93.5%	94.0%	84.2%	1.12×	1.06
Borussia Dortmund not to win both halves	87.5%	87.9%	90.5%	0.97×	1.14
Borussia Dortmund to win both halves	12.5%	12.1%	9.5%	1.27×	8.26
Union Berlin to win both halves	6.5%	6.0%	15.8%	0.38×	16.59

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to win either half	59.4%	59.5%	49.4%	1.20×	1.68
Union Berlin to win neither half	52.2%	55.0%	42.2%	1.30×	1.82
Union Berlin to win either half	47.8%	45.0%	57.8%	0.78×	2.22
Borussia Dortmund to win neither half	40.6%	40.5%	50.6%	0.80×	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin not to win to nil	85.1%	88.2%	80.4%	1.10×	1.13
Borussia Dortmund not to win to nil	78.8%	78.1%	84.5%	0.92×	1.28
Borussia Dortmund to win to nil	21.2%	21.9%	15.5%	1.41×	4.56
Union Berlin to win to nil	14.9%	11.8%	19.6%	0.60×	8.48

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.4%	24.2%	24.8%	0.97×	4.14
Borussia Dortmund by 1	21.5%	24.1%	16.5%	1.47×	4.14
Union Berlin by 1	17.9%	16.9%	17.1%	0.99×	5.91
Borussia Dortmund by 2	13.2%	11.8%	10.0%	1.18×	8.47
Union Berlin by 2	9.1%	7.3%	13.1%	0.55×	13.77
Borussia Dortmund by 3+	9.1%	7.3%	7.6%	0.96×	13.77
Union Berlin by 3+	4.8%	2.7%	11.7%	0.23×	36.93