Union Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 7 September 2026 · FIFA:2z7257m7hj58zuxcjrsg4erzc · 2627
FIFA:2z7257m7hj58zuxcjrsg4erzc
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (372 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 10.2%
- 2-1 9.8%
- 1-0 8.5%
- 2-0 8.2%
- 3-1 6.3%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 60.4% | Under 2.5 | 39.6% |
| BTTS yes | 59.6% | BTTS no | 40.4% |
| Union Berlin 1+ | 85.4% | Union Berlin 2+ | 57.4% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt 1+ | 69.8% | Eintracht Frankfurt 2+ | 33.6% |
Expected goals 1.93 – 1.20. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Union Berlin have created 1.47 xG a match over their last five while Eintracht Frankfurt have allowed 1.87.
- At home Union Berlin average 1.96 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Union Berlin have scored 2.40 a match from 1.47 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Union Berlin have an estimated 54.9% win probability, against 22.6% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 22.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.93 for Union Berlin and 1.20 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
Why Union Berlin
Union Berlin have created 1.47 xG a match over their last five while Eintracht Frankfurt have allowed 1.87. At home Union Berlin average 1.96 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 22.5%.
Why Eintracht Frankfurt can win
Eintracht Frankfurt carry the stronger rating, 1475 Elo against 1446. Eintracht Frankfurt have created 1.53 xG a match over their last five while Union Berlin have allowed 2.30. Away from home Eintracht Frankfurt average 1.40 xG a match. They have had 9 days' rest to Union Berlin's 2.
Key players
Union Berlin's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Andrej Ilic (0.44), Emmanuel Latte Lath (0.26), Oliver Burke (0.23). Eintracht Frankfurt's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Jonathan Burkardt (0.45), Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga (0.33), Ritsu Doan (0.27).
Availability
2 of Union Berlin's top three contributors did not start their last match. Union Berlin changed goalkeeper for their last match. 36% of Union Berlin's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Eintracht Frankfurt's top three contributors did not start their last match. Eintracht Frankfurt changed goalkeeper for their last match. 36% of Eintracht Frankfurt's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Union Berlin: 42% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 16.5 faced, 0.67 xG a match from set pieces. Eintracht Frankfurt: 56% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.23 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Union Berlin are the model's most likely outcome at 54.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.2%. Confidence 29/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Union Berlin have scored 16 from 14.7 expected and conceded 23 from 23.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
Eintracht Frankfurt have scored 16 from 15.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.93–1.20 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.