Union Berlin v FC Cologne — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 31 October 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 02:09

Union Berlin

10:30

FC Cologne

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 1,327h before kick-off

Union Berlin win

49.9%

model 49.0%

Draw

21.9%

model 23.5%

FC Cologne win

28.1%

model 27.5%

502228

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.9%
2-1 9.5%
1-0 8.7%
2-0 7.6%
1-2 6.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	57.7%	Under 2.5	42.3%
BTTS yes	59.0%	BTTS no	41.0%
Union Berlin 1+	82.6%	Union Berlin 2+	52.2%
FC Cologne 1+	71.4%	FC Cologne 2+	35.6%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.25. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

83/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Under 1.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 59%

68.7% fair odds 1.46

moderate signal · 1584 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time · usually 79%

83.0% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1236 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Union Berlin have created 1.47 xG a match over their last five while FC Cologne have allowed 1.94.
At home Union Berlin average 1.96 xG a match.

Risk factors

Union Berlin have scored 2.40 a match from 1.47 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Union Berlin have an estimated 49.9% win probability, against 28.1% for FC Cologne and 21.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.75 for Union Berlin and 1.25 for FC Cologne.

Why Union Berlin

Union Berlin have created 1.47 xG a match over their last five while FC Cologne have allowed 1.94. At home Union Berlin average 1.96 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.9%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why FC Cologne can win

FC Cologne have created 2.23 xG a match over their last five while Union Berlin have allowed 2.30. Away from home FC Cologne average 1.96 xG a match.

Key players

Union Berlin's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Andrej Ilic (0.44), Emmanuel Latte Lath (0.26), Oliver Burke (0.23). FC Cologne's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Said El Mala (0.47), Ragnar Ache (0.43), Jakub Kaminski (0.35).

Availability

2 of Union Berlin's top three contributors did not start their last match. Union Berlin changed goalkeeper for their last match. 36% of Union Berlin's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of FC Cologne's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of FC Cologne's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Union Berlin: 42% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 16.5 faced, 0.67 xG a match from set pieces. FC Cologne: 42% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 15.6 faced, 0.39 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Union Berlin are the model's most likely outcome at 49.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.9%. Confidence 83/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Union Berlin have scored 16 from 14.7 expected and conceded 23 from 23.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LDLLLDWWDL last 10 scored 16 from 14.7 xG conceded 23 from 23.0 xG

FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

DDWDLDLLWL last 10 scored 18 from 22.3 xG conceded 25 from 19.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	492427	1.75–1.25	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	452431	1.70–1.38	1-1 11%	59%	61%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to win	47.1%	47.4%	41.7%	1.14×	2.11
FC Cologne to win	29.7%	27.9%	33.5%	0.83×	3.59
Draw	23.2%	24.4%	24.9%	0.98×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin & both teams score	25.8%	25.2%	22.2%	1.13×	3.97
Union Berlin & not both score	21.3%	21.9%	19.7%	1.11×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	18.8%	17.9%	19.2%	0.93×	5.58
FC Cologne & both teams score	17.0%	17.9%	18.3%	0.98×	5.58
FC Cologne & not both score	12.7%	13.3%	15.4%	0.86×	7.54
Draw & not both score	4.4%	4.9%	5.9%	0.83×	20.53

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin & over 1.5	39.4%	34.9%	35.6%	0.98×	2.86
Union Berlin & over 2.5	32.5%	30.9%	29.5%	1.04×	3.24
Union Berlin & under 3.5	27.9%	26.0%	21.6%	1.21×	3.84
FC Cologne & over 1.5	23.7%	21.6%	27.6%	0.78×	4.62
FC Cologne & over 2.5	19.6%	18.0%	23.3%	0.77×	5.56
Union Berlin & over 3.5	19.2%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.8%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.56
FC Cologne & under 3.5	19.0%	18.0%	19.8%	0.91×	5.56
Union Berlin & under 2.5	14.6%	12.9%	12.4%	1.04×	7.77
Draw & under 2.5	14.9%	12.9%	15.6%	0.83×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	14.9%	12.9%	15.6%	0.83×	7.77
FC Cologne & over 3.5	10.6%	12.9%	13.8%	0.93×	7.77
FC Cologne & under 2.5	10.0%	12.9%	10.3%	1.25×	7.77
Union Berlin & under 1.5	7.7%	7.9%	6.3%	1.24×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	8.3%	7.9%	9.5%	0.83×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	8.3%	7.9%	9.5%	0.83×	12.70
FC Cologne & under 1.5	6.0%	7.9%	6.0%	1.31×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	4.4%	4.8%	5.9%	0.81×	20.92

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (1UP)	64.0%	63.2%	59.6%	1.06×	1.58
FC Cologne (1UP)	49.3%	43.5%	52.8%	0.82×	2.30

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (2UP)	47.1%	49.7%	45.2%	1.10×	2.01
FC Cologne (2UP)	29.7%	25.2%	36.4%	0.69×	3.97

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to win 2nd half	44.6%	41.4%	37.2%	1.11×	2.42
2nd half drawn	30.6%	34.2%	33.5%	1.02×	2.92
FC Cologne to win 2nd half	24.7%	23.1%	29.4%	0.79×	4.33

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Cologne (+2.5)	88.8%	88.5%	88.3%	1.00×	1.13
FC Cologne (+1.5)	74.5%	73.7%	75.2%	0.98×	1.36
Union Berlin (+0.5)	70.3%	73.7%	66.5%	1.11×	1.36
FC Cologne (+0.5)	52.9%	52.4%	58.3%	0.90×	1.91
Union Berlin (-0.5)	47.1%	47.6%	41.7%	1.14×	2.10
FC Cologne (-0.5)	29.7%	26.4%	33.5%	0.79×	3.80
Union Berlin (-1.5)	25.5%	26.3%	24.8%	1.06×	3.80
Union Berlin (-2.5)	11.2%	11.5%	11.7%	0.98×	8.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Cologne to concede	82.9%	81.3%	78.9%	1.03×	1.23
FC Cologne clean sheet	17.1%	18.7%	21.1%	0.88×	5.36

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Cologne to concede in 1st half	45.5%	50.5%	51.8%	0.97×	1.98
FC Cologne clean sheet in 1st half	54.5%	49.5%	48.2%	1.03×	2.02

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Cologne under 3.5 goals	95.1%	97.5%	92.9%	1.05×	1.03
FC Cologne under 2.5 goals	84.3%	81.4%	79.2%	1.03×	1.23
FC Cologne over 0.5 goals	74.3%	72.0%	74.6%	0.96×	1.39
FC Cologne under 1.5 goals	60.6%	62.9%	57.3%	1.10×	1.59
FC Cologne over 1.5 goals	39.4%	37.1%	42.7%	0.87×	2.70
FC Cologne under 0.5 goals	25.7%	28.0%	25.4%	1.10×	3.57
FC Cologne over 2.5 goals	15.7%	18.6%	20.8%	0.89×	5.39
FC Cologne over 3.5 goals	4.9%	2.5%	7.1%	0.34×	40.71

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Cologne under 1.5 in 1st half	88.5%	89.5%	85.9%	1.04×	1.12
FC Cologne under 0.5 in 1st half	56.1%	62.4%	54.5%	1.14×	1.60
FC Cologne over 0.5 in 1st half	43.9%	37.6%	45.5%	0.83×	2.66
FC Cologne over 1.5 in 1st half	11.5%	10.5%	14.1%	0.74×	9.49

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (away no bet)	67.0%	66.4%	62.6%	1.06×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	33.0%	33.6%	37.4%	0.90×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Cologne even goals	53.3%	52.8%	53.2%	0.99×	1.90
FC Cologne odd goals	46.7%	47.2%	46.8%	1.01×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.8%	83.0%	76.0%	1.09×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.2%	17.1%	24.0%	0.71×	5.87

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	71.8%	67.1%	72.2%	0.93×	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	28.2%	32.9%	27.8%	1.18×	3.04

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	62.9%	59.8%	66.8%	0.89×	1.67
Union Berlin to score 2+ in a row	42.8%	38.3%	42.4%	0.90×	2.61
FC Cologne to score 2+ in a row	28.9%	25.2%	34.5%	0.73×	3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.6%	19.6%	29.3%	0.67×	5.12
Union Berlin to score 3+ in a row	16.7%	16.4%	17.6%	0.93×	6.10
FC Cologne to score 3+ in a row	8.4%	5.7%	12.6%	0.45×	17.67

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.5%	11.4%	9.8%	1.16×	8.74
2-1	9.3%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.47
1-0	7.7%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.47
1-2	7.2%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.47
2-0	6.8%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.47
0-1	6.0%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.47
2-2	6.3%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.47
3-1	5.5%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.47
0-0	4.4%	1.7%	5.9%	0.29×	58.50
0-2	4.1%	1.7%	4.4%	0.38×	58.50
0-3	1.8%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.51
0-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.52
1-3	3.3%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.51
1-4	1.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.52
2-3	2.9%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.51
2-4	1.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.52
3-0	4.0%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.50
3-2	3.7%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.50
3-3	1.7%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.51
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.52
4-0	1.8%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.51
4-1	2.4%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.51
4-2	1.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.51
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.52
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.59×	58.52
Any other score	4.6%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.50

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin leading at HT (DNB)	51.6%	55.5%	55.7%	1.00×	1.80
FC Cologne leading at HT (DNB)	48.4%	44.5%	44.3%	1.00×	2.25

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin or FC Cologne (12)	76.8%	75.6%	75.1%	1.01×	1.32
Union Berlin or draw (1X)	70.3%	72.1%	66.5%	1.08×	1.39
FC Cologne or draw (X2)	52.9%	52.6%	58.3%	0.90×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin or draw at HT	72.0%	74.5%	70.7%	1.05×	1.34
FC Cologne or draw at HT	70.2%	74.4%	63.3%	1.18×	1.34
Union Berlin or FC Cologne at HT	57.7%	56.6%	65.8%	0.86×	1.77

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin or draw (1UP)	70.3%	79.9%	73.6%	1.08×	1.25
FC Cologne or draw (1UP)	52.9%	59.3%	65.0%	0.91×	1.69

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin or draw in 2nd half	75.3%	76.9%	70.6%	1.09×	1.30
Union Berlin or FC Cologne in 2nd half	69.4%	65.8%	66.5%	0.99×	1.52
FC Cologne or draw in 2nd half	55.4%	58.6%	62.8%	0.93×	1.71

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.9%	58.2%	53.7%	1.08×	1.72
Neither half drawn	40.1%	41.8%	46.3%	0.90×	2.39

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (DNB)	61.4%	62.7%	55.5%	1.13×	1.59
FC Cologne (DNB)	38.6%	37.3%	44.5%	0.84×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to score first	54.0%	53.9%	50.7%	1.06×	1.85
FC Cologne to score first	41.6%	41.7%	43.6%	0.96×	2.40
No goal scored	4.4%	4.3%	5.9%	0.74×	23.12

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	61.6%	56.5%	59.4%	0.95×	1.77
Not both teams to score	38.4%	43.5%	40.6%	1.07×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	51.1%	47.0%	49.7%	0.95×	2.13
Not both score & under 2.5	29.0%	33.6%	28.3%	1.19×	2.97
Both score & under 2.5	10.5%	12.3%	9.8%	1.25×	8.12
Not both score & over 2.5	9.4%	8.4%	12.5%	0.67×	11.94

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	79.2%	80.0%	79.7%	1.00×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	20.8%	20.0%	20.3%	0.98×	5.01

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	62.8%	65.9%	65.5%	1.01×	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	37.2%	34.1%	34.5%	0.99×	2.93

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	50.2%	55.8%	51.7%	1.08×	1.79
Both score 2nd half only	29.8%	26.4%	27.8%	0.95×	3.79
Both score 1st half only	12.5%	10.5%	14.0%	0.75×	9.48
Both score in both halves	7.4%	6.8%	6.8%	0.99×	14.78

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.0%	82.7%	79.3%	1.04×	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	20.0%	17.3%	20.7%	0.84×	5.79

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	59.5%	57.6%	66.8%	0.86×	1.74
A half without a goal	40.5%	42.4%	33.2%	1.28×	2.36

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.8%	42.1%	38.9%	1.08×	2.38
4-6 goals	34.1%	30.8%	39.7%	0.78×	3.25
0-1 goals	18.1%	20.2%	17.9%	1.13×	4.95
7+ goals	4.0%	1.8%	3.8%	0.48×	54.83

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Cologne to score exactly 1	34.9%	33.9%	32.1%	1.06×	2.95
FC Cologne to score exactly 0	25.7%	27.4%	25.4%	1.08×	3.65
FC Cologne to score exactly 2	23.7%	22.4%	22.1%	1.02×	4.46
FC Cologne to score 3+	15.7%	19.5%	20.8%	0.94×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to score exactly 1	30.2%	32.6%	29.0%	1.12×	3.06
Union Berlin to score exactly 2	26.7%	26.5%	22.7%	1.17×	3.77
Union Berlin to score 3+	26.1%	26.5%	27.5%	0.97×	3.77
Union Berlin to score exactly 0	17.1%	18.9%	21.1%	0.89×	5.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.3%	43.4%	34.2%	1.27×	2.30
Union Berlin leading at HT	29.8%	25.6%	36.7%	0.70×	3.91
FC Cologne leading at HT	28.0%	25.5%	29.3%	0.87×	3.93

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin -1: 2	52.9%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Union Berlin -1: 1	25.5%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Union Berlin -1: X	21.6%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Cologne (0:1)	52.9%	51.2%	58.3%	0.88×	1.95
Union Berlin (0:1)	25.5%	27.0%	24.8%	1.09×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	21.6%	24.3%	17.1%	1.42×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Cologne (0:2)	74.5%	75.6%	75.2%	1.01×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	14.3%	11.0%	13.2%	0.83×	9.10
Union Berlin (0:2)	11.2%	11.0%	11.7%	0.93×	9.11

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Cologne (0:3)	88.8%	90.8%	88.3%	1.03×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.1%	5.8%	5.1%	1.15×	17.18
Union Berlin (0:3)	4.1%	2.4%	6.8%	0.35×	42.03

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Cologne (0:4)	95.9%	98.1%	93.2%	1.05×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.8%	1.2%	5.2%	0.23×	83.28
Union Berlin (0:4)	1.3%	1.2%	1.7%	0.69×	83.47

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (1:0)	70.3%	72.5%	66.5%	1.09×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	16.7%	17.0%	16.5%	1.03×	5.87
FC Cologne (1:0)	13.0%	12.8%	17.1%	0.75×	7.80

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (2:0)	87.0%	88.4%	82.9%	1.07×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.5%	6.4%	10.0%	0.64×	15.51
FC Cologne (2:0)	4.6%	2.3%	7.3%	0.31×	44.22

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	55.0%	50.4%	46.7%	1.08×	1.98
1st half highest scoring	23.0%	24.3%	26.4%	0.92×	4.12
Halves equal	22.0%	24.2%	27.0%	0.90×	4.12

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to concede	74.3%	73.1%	74.6%	0.98×	1.37
Union Berlin clean sheet	25.7%	26.9%	25.4%	1.06×	3.72

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin clean sheet in 1st half	56.1%	62.4%	54.5%	1.14×	1.60
Union Berlin to concede in 1st half	43.9%	37.6%	45.5%	0.83×	2.66

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin under 3.5 goals	89.7%	87.3%	88.6%	0.99×	1.15
Union Berlin over 0.5 goals	82.9%	82.1%	78.9%	1.04×	1.22
Union Berlin under 2.5 goals	73.9%	74.2%	72.5%	1.02×	1.35
Union Berlin over 1.5 goals	52.7%	53.3%	50.0%	1.07×	1.88
Union Berlin under 1.5 goals	47.3%	46.7%	50.0%	0.94×	2.14
Union Berlin over 2.5 goals	26.1%	25.8%	27.5%	0.94×	3.88
Union Berlin under 0.5 goals	17.1%	17.9%	21.1%	0.85×	5.60
Union Berlin over 3.5 goals	10.3%	12.7%	11.4%	1.11×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin under 1.5 in 1st half	87.6%	89.9%	80.8%	1.11×	1.11
Union Berlin over 0.5 in 1st half	45.5%	50.6%	51.8%	0.98×	1.98
Union Berlin under 0.5 in 1st half	54.5%	49.4%	48.2%	1.03×	2.02
Union Berlin over 1.5 in 1st half	12.4%	10.1%	19.2%	0.52×	9.92

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Cologne (home no bet)	56.1%	56.7%	57.3%	0.99×	1.76
Draw (home no bet)	43.9%	43.3%	42.7%	1.02×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin even goals	51.5%	50.6%	52.5%	0.96×	1.98
Union Berlin odd goals	48.5%	49.4%	47.5%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.6%	32.0%	23.4%	1.37×	3.12
HT 1-0	18.6%	18.8%	19.4%	0.97×	5.32
HT 0-1	17.7%	18.8%	16.5%	1.14×	5.32
HT 1-1	10.7%	11.0%	9.7%	1.13×	9.13
HT 2-0	5.6%	7.0%	9.5%	0.74×	14.20
HT 0-2	5.1%	7.0%	7.0%	1.01×	14.21
Any other HT score	4.4%	2.3%	6.7%	0.34×	43.74
HT 2-1	3.3%	2.3%	4.3%	0.53×	43.82
HT 1-2	3.1%	2.3%	3.5%	0.65×	43.84
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.3%	1.3%	1.79×	44.00

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin at HT / Union Berlin at FT	23.8%	21.8%	28.1%	0.77×	4.59
Draw at HT / Union Berlin at FT	18.9%	16.8%	10.7%	1.58×	5.94
FC Cologne at HT / FC Cologne at FT	17.4%	16.8%	20.2%	0.83×	5.94
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.9%	12.7%	14.0%	0.91×	7.90
Draw at HT / FC Cologne at FT	10.5%	12.6%	9.9%	1.28×	7.91
FC Cologne at HT / Draw at FT	6.1%	6.0%	6.0%	1.00×	16.62
FC Cologne at HT / Union Berlin at FT	4.4%	3.5%	3.3%	1.04×	28.82
Union Berlin at HT / Draw at FT	4.2%	3.5%	5.1%	0.68×	28.82
Union Berlin at HT / FC Cologne at FT	1.8%	3.5%	3.8%	0.91×	28.92

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to score last	54.0%	51.9%	49.9%	1.04×	1.93
FC Cologne to score last	41.6%	40.2%	44.4%	0.91×	2.49
No goal scored	4.4%	4.3%	5.9%	0.74×	23.12

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.6%	95.6%	94.1%	1.02×	1.05
Union Berlin to lead by 1 at any time	64.0%	61.4%	59.6%	1.03×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	52.5%	50.7%	55.8%	0.91×	1.97
FC Cologne to lead by 1 at any time	49.3%	44.1%	52.8%	0.84×	2.27
Union Berlin to lead by 2 at any time	33.2%	29.3%	33.2%	0.88×	3.41
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.5%	19.5%	25.4%	0.77×	5.12
FC Cologne to lead by 2 at any time	19.7%	15.0%	23.4%	0.64×	6.66
Union Berlin to lead by 3 at any time	14.1%	10.4%	15.6%	0.67×	9.58
FC Cologne to lead by 3 at any time	6.4%	6.5%	10.0%	0.65×	15.28

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.9%	87.4%	83.2%	1.05×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.9%	78.6%	78.4%	1.00×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.0%	72.4%	72.5%	1.00×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.2%	72.4%	71.1%	1.02×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.3%	63.4%	60.5%	1.05×	1.58
1-3 goals	57.5%	59.2%	51.0%	1.16×	1.69
3-6 goals	56.5%	59.2%	58.4%	1.01×	1.69
3-5 goals	50.8%	53.2%	51.1%	1.04×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.8%	43.6%	38.9%	1.12×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.8%	39.2%	40.5%	0.97×	2.55
1-2 goals	35.1%	39.2%	32.2%	1.22×	2.55
4-6 goals	34.1%	35.4%	39.7%	0.89×	2.83
4-5 goals	28.4%	30.2%	32.4%	0.93×	3.31
5-6 goals	16.6%	18.6%	18.1%	1.03×	5.37
7+ goals	4.0%	2.5%	3.8%	0.67×	39.33

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin never behind	46.3%	56.5%	47.2%	1.20×	1.77
FC Cologne never behind	31.6%	35.7%	40.4%	0.88×	2.80

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.8%	44.6%	1.14×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.2%	55.4%	0.89×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.7%	51.6%	52.5%	0.98×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.3%	48.4%	47.5%	1.02×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.0%	52.1%	53.1%	0.98×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.0%	47.9%	46.9%	1.02×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.6%	95.5%	94.1%	1.01×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	90.3%	92.3%	88.9%	1.04×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	81.9%	82.4%	82.1%	1.00×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	79.4%	77.4%	78.3%	0.99×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	61.9%	61.7%	56.7%	1.09×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	60.5%	61.7%	62.1%	0.99×	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	39.5%	38.3%	37.9%	1.01×	2.61
Over 3.5 goals	38.1%	38.3%	43.3%	0.88×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	20.6%	22.6%	21.7%	1.04×	4.42
Under 1.5 goals	18.1%	17.6%	17.9%	0.98×	5.67
Over 5.5 goals	9.7%	7.7%	11.1%	0.70×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	4.4%	4.5%	5.9%	0.77×	22.21

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.7%	97.2%	95.9%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.1%	86.8%	87.6%	0.99×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	77.0%	75.9%	77.6%	0.98×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	75.0%	72.6%	72.3%	1.00×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	50.9%	51.8%	46.7%	1.11×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	49.1%	48.2%	53.3%	0.90×	2.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	25.0%	27.4%	27.7%	0.99×	3.65
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	23.0%	24.1%	22.4%	1.07×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.9%	13.2%	12.4%	1.07×	7.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.3%	2.8%	4.1%	0.67×	36.29

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.3%	89.1%	84.7%	1.05×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.4%	69.2%	76.6%	0.90×	1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half	66.8%	69.1%	59.0%	1.17×	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	33.2%	30.9%	41.0%	0.75×	3.24
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.6%	30.8%	23.4%	1.32×	3.25
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.7%	10.9%	15.3%	0.72×	9.16

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	85.7%	85.2%	84.3%	1.01×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	69.2%	67.2%	73.6%	0.91×	1.49
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	57.8%	54.7%	55.2%	0.99×	1.83
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	42.2%	45.3%	44.8%	1.01×	2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	30.8%	32.8%	26.4%	1.24×	3.05
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	14.3%	14.8%	15.7%	0.94×	6.75

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Cologne not to score in both halves	76.2%	78.2%	72.7%	1.08×	1.28
Union Berlin not to score in both halves	68.8%	70.3%	64.7%	1.09×	1.42
Union Berlin to score in both halves	31.2%	29.7%	35.3%	0.84×	3.37
FC Cologne to score in both halves	23.8%	21.8%	27.3%	0.80×	4.59

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	61.6%	60.2%	59.4%	1.01×	1.66
Only Union Berlin scores	21.3%	22.3%	19.7%	1.13×	4.48
Only FC Cologne scores	12.7%	10.9%	15.4%	0.71×	9.14
Neither team scores	4.4%	4.6%	5.9%	0.78×	21.77

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	18.9%	1.20×	4.42
Exactly 2 goals	21.4%	22.6%	20.2%	1.12×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	17.5%	17.4%	21.7%	0.80×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	13.7%	12.1%	12.2%	0.99×	8.28
Exactly 5 goals	10.9%	12.1%	10.8%	1.12×	8.29
6 or more goals	9.7%	7.6%	11.1%	0.69×	13.09
Exactly 0 goals	4.4%	4.4%	5.9%	0.75×	22.67

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	57.8%	52.8%	55.2%	0.96×	1.89
1 goal in 2nd half	27.9%	29.8%	29.3%	1.02×	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	14.3%	14.7%	15.7%	0.94×	6.78

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Cologne not to win both halves	93.1%	94.0%	90.6%	1.04×	1.06
Union Berlin not to win both halves	86.7%	88.0%	84.1%	1.05×	1.14
Union Berlin to win both halves	13.3%	12.0%	15.9%	0.76×	8.32
FC Cologne to win both halves	6.9%	6.0%	9.4%	0.64×	16.64

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to win either half	61.1%	65.2%	58.0%	1.12×	1.54
FC Cologne to win neither half	54.2%	55.1%	50.7%	1.09×	1.82
FC Cologne to win either half	45.8%	44.9%	49.3%	0.91×	2.23
Union Berlin to win neither half	38.9%	34.8%	42.0%	0.83×	2.87

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Cologne not to win to nil	87.3%	88.2%	84.6%	1.04×	1.13
Union Berlin not to win to nil	78.7%	78.0%	80.3%	0.97×	1.28
Union Berlin to win to nil	21.3%	22.0%	19.7%	1.12×	4.55
FC Cologne to win to nil	12.7%	11.8%	15.4%	0.77×	8.48

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.2%	24.2%	24.9%	0.97×	4.14
Union Berlin by 1	21.6%	24.1%	17.1%	1.41×	4.14
FC Cologne by 1	16.7%	16.9%	16.5%	1.03×	5.90
Union Berlin by 2	14.3%	11.8%	13.2%	0.90×	8.47
Union Berlin by 3+	11.2%	11.8%	11.7%	1.01×	8.47
FC Cologne by 2	8.5%	7.3%	10.0%	0.73×	13.79
FC Cologne by 3+	4.6%	2.7%	7.3%	0.37×	36.99