Union Berlin v FC Heidenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 May 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 8
On target
1 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.30
Goals − xG
-0.53 – +1.14
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Union Berlin win
47.2%
Draw
27.4%
FC Heidenheim win
25.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Union Berlin have scored 16 from 14.7 expected and conceded 23 from 23.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLDWWDL last 10
scored 16
from 14.7 xG
conceded 23
from 23.0 xG
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.51–1.04 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Union Berlin 0.53 xGFC Heidenheim 1.86 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Union Berlin attacking right
FC Heidenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Adrian Beck | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marvin Pieringer |
| 14' |
 Union Berlin |
László Bénes | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Benedict Hollerbach |
| 18' |
Union Berlin |
Christopher Trimmel | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 40' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Danilho Doekhi |
| 48' |
Union Berlin |
László Bénes | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
FC Heidenheim |
Adrian Beck | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Paul Wanner |
| 55' |
FC Heidenheim |
Jan Schöppner | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marvin Pieringer |
| 64' |
Union Berlin |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
FC Heidenheim |
Frans Krätzig | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrian Beck |
| 69' |
FC Heidenheim |
Patrick Mainka | 0.26 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Frans Krätzig |
| 70' |
FC Heidenheim |
Adrian Beck | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
FC Heidenheim |
Adrian Beck | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Paul Wanner |
| 81' |
Union Berlin |
Andras Schafer | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Josip Juranovic |
| 86' |
Union Berlin |
David Preu | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Union Berlin |
David Preu | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Leopold Querfeld |
| 90' |
Union Berlin |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andras Schafer |
| 92' |
Union Berlin |
Josip Juranovic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andras Schafer |
Players
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benedict Hollerbach FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.38 |
| Janik Haberer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| László Bénes AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Christopher Trimmel MR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Tom Rothe ML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Vogt DC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Andrej Ilic FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Marin Ljubicic Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Preu Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Josip Juranovic Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andras Schafer Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Schöppner MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Frans Krätzig DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.26 | 0.08 |
| Tim Siersleben DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Paul Wanner AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| Benedikt Gimber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Frank Feller GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Marvin Pieringer FW | 84 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.86 | 1.51 |
| Omar Traoré DMR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Adrian Beck AMC | 81 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.12 | 0.08 | 1.17 |
| Niklas Dorsch MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marnon Busch Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathias Honsak Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Budu Zivzivadze Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Kerber Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julian Niehues Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |