Union Berlin v Hoffenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 13 September 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 9
On target
6 – 8
Shots in box
14 – 9
xG per shot
0.20 – 0.37
Set-piece xG
1.04 – 1.86
Goals − xG
-2.06 – +0.66
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Union Berlin win
35.4%
Draw
27.3%
Hoffenheim win
37.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Union Berlin have scored 16 from 14.7 expected and conceded 23 from 23.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLDWWDL last 10
scored 16
from 14.7 xG
conceded 23
from 23.0 xG
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDWWDWLLL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 19.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.41–1.45 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.67–1.06 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Union Berlin 4.06 xGHoffenheim 3.34 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Union Berlin attacking right
Hoffenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bazoumana Touré |
| 4' |
 Union Berlin |
Ilyas Ansah | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Oliver Burke |
| 11' |
Union Berlin |
Oliver Burke | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ilyas Ansah |
| 18' |
Union Berlin |
Oliver Burke | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rani Khedira |
| 22' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 26' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Oliver Burke |
| 26' |
Union Berlin |
Oliver Burke | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Union Berlin |
Janik Haberer | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Oliver Burke |
| 40' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 45' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 46' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Danilho Doekhi |
| 47' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.29 | Open Play | — | Goal | Tim Lemperle |
| 48' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.92 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Union Berlin |
Ilyas Ansah | 0.96 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 50' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.67 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 54' |
Hoffenheim |
Albian Hajdari | 0.30 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 57' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fisnik Asllani |
| 64' |
Union Berlin |
Tom Rothe | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 69' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 70' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 70' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Union Berlin |
Tom Rothe | 0.53 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 82' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 84' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.15 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 86' |
Union Berlin |
Derrick Köhn | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Union Berlin |
Alex Kral | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aljoscha Kemlein |
| 89' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 89' |
Union Berlin |
Tim Skarke | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Union Berlin |
Tim Skarke | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leopold Querfeld |
Players
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wouter Burger MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| Bernardo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Robin Hranác DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leon Avdullahu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Tim Lemperle FWR | 89 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.86 | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| Bazoumana Touré FWL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.31 | 0.53 |
| Albian Hajdari DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fisnik Asllani FW | 69 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.31 | 0.11 | 1.38 |
| Andrej Kramaric MC | 69 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Moerstedt Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Grischa Prömel Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Arthur Chaves Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexander Prass Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Muhammed Damar Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Ilic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.51 | 0.00 | 1.42 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Christopher Trimmel DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.00 |
| Robert Skov DML | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Tom Rothe DC | 85 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilyas Ansah AMC | 76 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.12 | 1.12 |
| Oliver Burke AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.49 | 0.13 | 0.52 |
| Rani Khedira MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.00 |
| Janik Haberer MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alex Kral Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Aljoscha Kemlein Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Derrick Köhn Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |