V-Varen Nagasaki v Cerezo Osaka — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · JPN-J League · 2627

JPN-J League results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

V-Varen Nagasaki

05:30

Cerezo Osaka

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 314h before kick-off

V-Varen Nagasaki win

28.1%

model 26.7%

Draw

21.9%

model 24.1%

Cerezo Osaka win

49.9%

model 49.2%

282250

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.4%
0-1 10.1%
1-2 9.5%
0-2 8.3%
1-0 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	53.2%	Under 2.5	46.8%
BTTS yes	55.2%	BTTS no	44.8%
V-Varen Nagasaki 1+	68.4%	V-Varen Nagasaki 2+	32.0%
Cerezo Osaka 1+	80.9%	Cerezo Osaka 2+	49.2%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.65. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Cerezo Osaka or draw (X2)

Double chance · usually 57%

72.3% fair odds 1.38

strong signal · 1552 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

V-Varen Nagasaki to concede

Home clean sheet · usually 68%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 244 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Cerezo Osaka carry the stronger rating, 1586 Elo against 1440.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Cerezo Osaka have an estimated 49.9% win probability, against 28.1% for V-Varen Nagasaki and 21.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.15 for V-Varen Nagasaki and 1.65 for Cerezo Osaka.

Why V-Varen Nagasaki

Nothing in the data singles out V-Varen Nagasaki.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.9%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Cerezo Osaka can win

Cerezo Osaka carry the stronger rating, 1586 Elo against 1440. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for V-Varen Nagasaki, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Cerezo Osaka, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

V-Varen Nagasaki: 45% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Cerezo Osaka: 56% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Cerezo Osaka are the model's most likely outcome at 49.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.4%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	272449	1.15–1.65	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	252451	1.14–1.72	1-1 11%	55%	56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka to win	50.9%	51.4%	31.0%	1.66×	1.95
V-Varen Nagasaki to win	25.5%	27.9%	42.9%	0.65×	3.59
Draw	23.6%	24.4%	26.3%	0.93×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka & not both score	26.3%	25.2%	17.7%	1.42×	3.97
Cerezo Osaka & both teams score	24.7%	21.9%	13.4%	1.63×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	18.0%	17.9%	19.3%	0.93×	5.58
V-Varen Nagasaki & both teams score	13.1%	13.2%	18.0%	0.73×	7.55
V-Varen Nagasaki & not both score	12.4%	13.2%	25.0%	0.53×	7.55
Draw & not both score	5.6%	8.4%	7.1%	1.17×	11.95

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka & over 1.5	41.0%	40.3%	21.2%	1.90×	2.48
Cerezo Osaka & under 3.5	32.9%	30.9%	23.4%	1.32×	3.24
Cerezo Osaka & over 2.5	32.5%	30.9%	17.9%	1.73×	3.24
V-Varen Nagasaki & over 1.5	18.8%	18.0%	30.2%	0.60×	5.56
V-Varen Nagasaki & under 3.5	18.3%	18.0%	33.1%	0.54×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.0%	18.0%	19.3%	0.93×	5.56
Cerezo Osaka & under 2.5	18.4%	18.0%	13.3%	1.35×	5.56
Cerezo Osaka & over 3.5	18.1%	18.0%	7.8%	2.32×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	16.7%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.7%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
V-Varen Nagasaki & over 2.5	15.1%	18.0%	23.1%	0.78×	5.56
V-Varen Nagasaki & under 2.5	10.4%	12.9%	19.9%	0.65×	7.78
Cerezo Osaka & under 1.5	9.9%	7.9%	10.0%	0.79×	12.69
V-Varen Nagasaki & over 3.5	7.2%	7.9%	10.0%	0.79×	12.69
V-Varen Nagasaki & under 1.5	6.7%	7.9%	12.8%	0.61×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	6.9%	7.9%	6.0%	1.31×	12.69
Draw & over 3.5	6.9%	7.9%	6.0%	1.31×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	5.6%	7.9%	7.1%	1.11×	12.69

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka (1UP)	65.8%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
V-Varen Nagasaki (1UP)	43.8%	38.9%	—	—	2.57

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka (2UP)	50.9%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
V-Varen Nagasaki (2UP)	25.5%	24.5%	—	—	4.09

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka to win 2nd half	43.9%	41.3%	—	—	2.42
2nd half drawn	33.3%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
V-Varen Nagasaki to win 2nd half	22.8%	23.0%	—	—	4.35

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka (+2.5)	97.0%	96.3%	93.8%	1.03×	1.04
Cerezo Osaka (+1.5)	90.1%	92.1%	82.0%	1.12×	1.09
Cerezo Osaka (+0.5)	74.5%	73.7%	57.1%	1.29×	1.36
Cerezo Osaka (-0.5)	50.9%	52.3%	31.0%	1.69×	1.91
V-Varen Nagasaki (+0.5)	49.1%	47.7%	69.0%	0.69×	2.10
V-Varen Nagasaki (-0.5)	25.5%	26.3%	42.9%	0.61×	3.80
V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)	9.9%	7.9%	18.0%	0.44×	12.64
V-Varen Nagasaki (-2.5)	3.0%	3.7%	6.2%	0.60×	26.81

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka to concede	68.1%	72.5%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
Cerezo Osaka clean sheet	31.9%	27.5%	24.7%	1.11×	3.64

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka clean sheet in 1st half	61.1%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Cerezo Osaka to concede in 1st half	38.9%	35.3%	—	—	2.83

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka over 2.5 corners	84.0%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Cerezo Osaka under 6.5 corners	72.9%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Cerezo Osaka over 3.5 corners	70.2%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Cerezo Osaka under 5.5 corners	60.2%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Cerezo Osaka over 4.5 corners	54.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Cerezo Osaka under 4.5 corners	45.3%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Cerezo Osaka over 5.5 corners	39.8%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Cerezo Osaka under 3.5 corners	29.8%	27.7%	—	—	3.61
Cerezo Osaka over 6.5 corners	27.1%	27.7%	—	—	3.62
Cerezo Osaka under 2.5 corners	16.0%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka under 3.5 goals	90.4%	92.3%	95.9%	0.96×	1.08
Cerezo Osaka over 0.5 goals	82.1%	81.5%	68.0%	1.20×	1.23
Cerezo Osaka under 2.5 goals	75.3%	76.2%	87.8%	0.87×	1.31
Cerezo Osaka over 1.5 goals	51.2%	53.7%	31.8%	1.69×	1.86
Cerezo Osaka under 1.5 goals	48.8%	46.3%	68.2%	0.68×	2.16
Cerezo Osaka over 2.5 goals	24.7%	23.8%	12.2%	1.95×	4.20
Cerezo Osaka under 0.5 goals	17.9%	18.5%	32.0%	0.58×	5.40
Cerezo Osaka over 3.5 goals	9.6%	7.7%	4.1%	1.86×	13.05

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka under 1.5 in 1st half	84.9%	83.6%	—	—	1.20
Cerezo Osaka under 0.5 in 1st half	50.3%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Cerezo Osaka over 0.5 in 1st half	49.7%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Cerezo Osaka over 1.5 in 1st half	15.1%	16.4%	—	—	6.11

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki (away no bet)	52.0%	51.2%	62.0%	0.83×	1.95
Draw (away no bet)	48.1%	48.8%	38.0%	1.28×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka even goals	51.6%	52.7%	54.4%	0.97×	1.90
Cerezo Osaka odd goals	48.4%	47.3%	45.6%	1.04×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	83.5%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	16.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.96

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	66.5%	68.3%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	33.5%	31.7%	—	—	3.16

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	58.8%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Cerezo Osaka to score 2+ in a row	42.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
V-Varen Nagasaki to score 2+ in a row	22.8%	19.3%	—	—	5.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row	22.3%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Cerezo Osaka to score 3+ in a row	16.8%	16.4%	—	—	6.10
V-Varen Nagasaki to score 3+ in a row	5.7%	5.5%	—	—	18.08

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (+3.5)	83.5%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Cerezo Osaka corners (+3.5)	82.5%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (+2.5)	76.0%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Cerezo Osaka corners (+2.5)	74.7%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (+1.5)	66.7%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Cerezo Osaka corners (+1.5)	65.3%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (-1.5)	34.7%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Cerezo Osaka corners (-1.5)	33.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (-2.5)	25.3%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Cerezo Osaka corners (-2.5)	24.0%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (-3.5)	17.5%	20.0%	—	—	5.00
Cerezo Osaka corners (-3.5)	16.5%	20.0%	—	—	5.00

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	34.7%	32.0%	—	—	3.12
0-8 corners	34.2%	32.0%	—	—	3.12
9-11 corners	31.2%	32.0%	—	—	3.13

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	75.8%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	73.9%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	65.8%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Under 11.5 corners	65.3%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Under 10.5 corners	55.5%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	55.1%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	44.9%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	44.5%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	34.7%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Under 8.5 corners	34.2%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Over 12.5 corners	26.1%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	24.2%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.1%	11.5%	13.4%	0.85×	8.73
0-1	9.9%	7.4%	10.0%	0.75×	13.46
0-2	8.4%	7.4%	3.5%	2.13×	13.46
1-2	9.7%	7.4%	7.3%	1.02×	13.46
1-0	6.7%	7.4%	12.8%	0.58×	13.46
0-0	5.6%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.46
1-3	5.5%	7.4%	2.4%	3.13×	13.46
2-1	6.4%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.46
2-2	5.5%	7.4%	5.2%	1.42×	13.46
0-3	4.8%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.56
0-4	2.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.58
1-4	2.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.16×	58.58
2-0	3.7%	1.7%	7.3%	0.23×	58.57
2-3	3.2%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.57
2-4	1.4%	1.7%	0.5%	3.60×	58.58
3-0	1.4%	1.7%	3.6%	0.47×	58.58
3-1	2.5%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.58
3-2	2.1%	1.7%	2.5%	0.67×	58.58
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.16×	58.59
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.70×	58.59
4-0	0.4%	1.7%	1.3%	1.35×	58.59
4-1	0.7%	1.7%	0.5%	3.60×	58.59
4-2	0.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.59
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.39×	58.59
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.39×	58.59
Any other score	3.7%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.57

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka leading at HT (DNB)	60.7%	66.0%	—	—	1.51
V-Varen Nagasaki leading at HT (DNB)	39.3%	34.0%	—	—	2.95

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki or Cerezo Osaka (12)	76.4%	75.6%	73.7%	1.02×	1.32
Cerezo Osaka or draw (X2)	74.5%	72.1%	57.1%	1.26×	1.39
V-Varen Nagasaki or draw (1X)	49.1%	48.6%	69.0%	0.70×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka or draw at HT	77.2%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
V-Varen Nagasaki or draw at HT	64.8%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
V-Varen Nagasaki or Cerezo Osaka at HT	58.0%	56.8%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka or draw (1UP)	74.5%	80.1%	—	—	1.25
V-Varen Nagasaki or draw (1UP)	49.1%	52.4%	—	—	1.91

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka or draw in 2nd half	77.2%	77.0%	—	—	1.30
V-Varen Nagasaki or Cerezo Osaka in 2nd half	66.7%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
V-Varen Nagasaki or draw in 2nd half	56.1%	58.7%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.4%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	38.6%	38.5%	—	—	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka (DNB)	66.6%	67.1%	42.0%	1.60×	1.49
V-Varen Nagasaki (DNB)	33.4%	32.9%	58.0%	0.57×	3.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka to score first	56.7%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
V-Varen Nagasaki to score first	37.7%	32.5%	—	—	3.07
No goal scored	5.6%	7.3%	—	—	13.65

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.8%	54.7%	50.5%	1.08×	1.83
Not both teams to score	44.2%	45.3%	49.5%	0.91×	2.21

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.7%	41.6%	37.2%	1.12×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	34.4%	34.4%	40.0%	0.86×	2.91
Both score & under 2.5	11.1%	12.3%	13.4%	0.92×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	9.8%	8.4%	9.7%	0.87×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.8%	83.2%	86.2%	0.96×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	16.2%	16.8%	13.8%	1.22×	5.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.2%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.8%	32.3%	—	—	3.10

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	55.9%	59.8%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	24.8%	21.2%	—	—	4.71
Both score 1st half only	13.3%	10.5%	—	—	9.52
Both score in both halves	6.0%	6.7%	—	—	15.00

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.7%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	19.3%	17.2%	—	—	5.81

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	56.3%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	43.7%	42.8%	—	—	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.6%	47.4%	47.2%	1.01×	2.11
4-6 goals	29.5%	26.4%	21.0%	1.26×	3.78
0-1 goals	22.2%	22.8%	29.6%	0.77×	4.38
7+ goals	2.7%	1.8%	2.5%	0.72×	55.15

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka to score exactly 1	30.8%	33.9%	36.4%	0.93×	2.95
Cerezo Osaka to score exactly 2	26.5%	27.4%	19.8%	1.38×	3.65
Cerezo Osaka to score 3+	24.7%	22.4%	12.2%	1.84×	4.47
Cerezo Osaka to score exactly 0	17.9%	19.5%	32.0%	0.61×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki to score exactly 1	36.4%	35.6%	36.4%	0.98×	2.81
V-Varen Nagasaki to score exactly 0	31.9%	32.6%	24.7%	1.32×	3.06
V-Varen Nagasaki to score exactly 2	20.8%	23.3%	24.4%	0.95×	4.30
V-Varen Nagasaki to score 3+	10.9%	14.3%	14.9%	0.96×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.0%	43.2%	—	—	2.32
Cerezo Osaka leading at HT	35.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
V-Varen Nagasaki leading at HT	22.8%	20.0%	—	—	5.00

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka -1: 1	49.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Cerezo Osaka -1: 2	27.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Cerezo Osaka -1: X	23.3%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka (0:1)	74.5%	71.1%	57.1%	1.24×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	15.6%	17.8%	25.0%	0.71×	5.63
V-Varen Nagasaki (0:1)	9.9%	9.3%	18.0%	0.52×	10.77

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka (0:2)	90.1%	90.7%	82.0%	1.11×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	6.9%	7.7%	12.0%	0.64×	12.98
V-Varen Nagasaki (0:2)	3.0%	3.8%	6.2%	0.61×	26.51

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka (0:3)	97.0%	96.6%	93.8%	1.03×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.3%	2.4%	4.3%	0.56×	42.04
V-Varen Nagasaki (0:3)	0.8%	2.4%	2.1%	1.15×	42.11

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka (0:4)	99.2%	98.1%	97.9%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	1.4%	0.84×	83.41
V-Varen Nagasaki (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	0.8%	1.51×	83.46

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki (1:0)	49.1%	49.9%	69.0%	0.72×	2.01
Cerezo Osaka (1:0)	27.6%	25.1%	11.9%	2.12×	3.98
Draw (1:0)	23.3%	21.7%	19.3%	1.13×	4.60

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki (2:0)	72.4%	76.4%	88.1%	0.87×	1.31
Draw (2:0)	15.5%	15.6%	6.0%	2.60×	6.40
Cerezo Osaka (2:0)	12.1%	10.4%	6.0%	1.73×	9.62

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.3%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
1st half highest scoring	26.8%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	23.9%	24.3%	—	—	4.12

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki to concede	82.1%	80.8%	68.0%	1.19×	1.24
V-Varen Nagasaki clean sheet	17.9%	19.2%	32.0%	0.60×	5.20

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki clean sheet in 1st half	50.3%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
V-Varen Nagasaki to concede in 1st half	49.7%	44.3%	—	—	2.26

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki over 2.5 corners	84.6%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
V-Varen Nagasaki under 6.5 corners	71.9%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
V-Varen Nagasaki over 3.5 corners	71.1%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
V-Varen Nagasaki under 5.5 corners	59.1%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
V-Varen Nagasaki over 4.5 corners	55.7%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
V-Varen Nagasaki under 4.5 corners	44.3%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
V-Varen Nagasaki over 5.5 corners	40.9%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
V-Varen Nagasaki under 3.5 corners	28.9%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
V-Varen Nagasaki over 6.5 corners	28.1%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
V-Varen Nagasaki under 2.5 corners	15.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.36

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki under 3.5 goals	97.1%	96.4%	94.9%	1.01×	1.04
V-Varen Nagasaki under 2.5 goals	89.1%	87.2%	85.1%	1.02×	1.15
V-Varen Nagasaki under 1.5 goals	68.3%	67.9%	60.9%	1.12×	1.47
V-Varen Nagasaki over 0.5 goals	68.1%	67.9%	75.3%	0.90×	1.47
V-Varen Nagasaki under 0.5 goals	31.9%	32.1%	24.7%	1.30×	3.12
V-Varen Nagasaki over 1.5 goals	31.7%	32.1%	39.1%	0.82×	3.12
V-Varen Nagasaki over 2.5 goals	10.9%	12.8%	14.9%	0.86×	7.84
V-Varen Nagasaki over 3.5 goals	2.9%	3.6%	5.1%	0.72×	27.43

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki under 1.5 in 1st half	91.2%	95.4%	—	—	1.05
V-Varen Nagasaki under 0.5 in 1st half	61.1%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
V-Varen Nagasaki over 0.5 in 1st half	38.9%	35.5%	—	—	2.82
V-Varen Nagasaki over 1.5 in 1st half	8.8%	4.6%	—	—	21.77

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka (home no bet)	68.4%	63.8%	54.1%	1.18×	1.57
Draw (home no bet)	31.6%	36.2%	45.9%	0.79×	2.77

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki even goals	55.1%	55.4%	52.4%	1.06×	1.80
V-Varen Nagasaki odd goals	44.9%	44.6%	47.6%	0.94×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.7%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
HT 0-1	21.2%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
HT 1-0	15.2%	18.8%	—	—	5.31
HT 1-1	10.4%	11.0%	—	—	9.07
HT 0-2	7.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.10
Any other HT score	4.6%	2.2%	—	—	44.58
HT 2-0	3.7%	2.2%	—	—	44.65
HT 1-2	3.6%	2.2%	—	—	44.66
HT 2-1	2.6%	2.2%	—	—	44.74
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.2%	—	—	44.87

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka at HT / Cerezo Osaka at FT	29.0%	26.7%	—	—	3.74
Draw at HT / Cerezo Osaka at FT	18.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
V-Varen Nagasaki at HT / V-Varen Nagasaki at FT	14.2%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / V-Varen Nagasaki at FT	9.7%	6.1%	—	—	16.51
V-Varen Nagasaki at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.64
Cerezo Osaka at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.4%	—	—	29.10
V-Varen Nagasaki at HT / Cerezo Osaka at FT	3.3%	3.4%	—	—	29.15
Cerezo Osaka at HT / V-Varen Nagasaki at FT	1.6%	3.4%	—	—	29.22

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka to score last	56.7%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
V-Varen Nagasaki to score last	37.8%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
No goal scored	5.6%	7.3%	—	—	13.65

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.4%	92.8%	—	—	1.08
Cerezo Osaka to lead by 1 at any time	65.8%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	49.5%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
V-Varen Nagasaki to lead by 1 at any time	43.8%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Cerezo Osaka to lead by 2 at any time	34.4%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.0%	15.0%	—	—	6.69
V-Varen Nagasaki to lead by 2 at any time	15.3%	14.9%	—	—	6.72
Cerezo Osaka to lead by 3 at any time	14.6%	10.5%	—	—	9.52
V-Varen Nagasaki to lead by 3 at any time	4.3%	1.6%	—	—	61.51

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki most corners	45.3%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Cerezo Osaka most corners	43.7%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Corners level	11.0%	10.6%	—	—	9.40

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.4%	87.4%	87.5%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.2%	78.6%	81.8%	0.96×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.1%	78.6%	68.0%	1.16×	1.27
2-5 goals	70.7%	72.4%	65.0%	1.11×	1.38
1-3 goals	62.2%	63.5%	69.6%	0.91×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.6%	63.5%	59.3%	1.07×	1.58
3-6 goals	51.8%	53.1%	44.3%	1.20×	1.88
3-5 goals	47.5%	48.7%	41.3%	1.18×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.6%	48.7%	47.2%	1.03×	2.06
1-2 goals	39.9%	39.2%	46.4%	0.84×	2.55
3-4 goals	38.3%	39.2%	35.6%	1.10×	2.55
4-6 goals	29.5%	30.2%	21.0%	1.43×	3.31
4-5 goals	25.1%	30.2%	18.0%	1.67×	3.31
5-6 goals	13.5%	14.9%	8.9%	1.68×	6.73
7+ goals	2.7%	2.5%	2.5%	1.00×	39.46

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka never behind	50.6%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
V-Varen Nagasaki never behind	28.7%	30.0%	—	—	3.33

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.9%	50.8%	46.8%	1.08×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.1%	49.2%	53.2%	0.93×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.7%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.3%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.6%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.4%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.4%	92.3%	92.9%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.9%	92.3%	94.5%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	83.8%	82.4%	88.8%	0.93×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	77.8%	77.4%	70.4%	1.10×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	67.8%	66.3%	76.6%	0.87×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	54.5%	52.4%	46.7%	1.12×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	45.5%	47.6%	53.3%	0.89×	2.10
Over 3.5 goals	32.2%	33.7%	23.4%	1.44×	2.96
Under 1.5 goals	22.2%	22.6%	29.6%	0.76×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	16.2%	17.6%	11.2%	1.57×	5.67
Over 5.5 goals	7.1%	7.7%	5.5%	1.39×	12.95
Under 0.5 goals	5.6%	7.7%	7.1%	1.08×	12.96

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.2%	97.3%	97.4%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.2%	92.5%	94.1%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	80.7%	81.1%	87.2%	0.93×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	71.1%	72.6%	61.2%	1.19×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	58.6%	55.5%	69.5%	0.80×	1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	41.4%	44.5%	30.5%	1.46×	2.25
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	28.9%	27.4%	38.8%	0.71×	3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	19.3%	18.9%	12.8%	1.48×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.8%	7.5%	5.9%	1.28×	13.26
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.8%	2.8%	2.6%	1.05×	36.36

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.4%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.3%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.0%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	33.0%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.7%	30.9%	—	—	3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.6%	10.7%	—	—	9.38

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.5%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	76.2%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.1%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.9%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	23.8%	20.1%	—	—	4.97
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.5%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki not to score in both halves	81.4%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Cerezo Osaka not to score in both halves	68.0%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Cerezo Osaka to score in both halves	32.0%	29.9%	—	—	3.34
V-Varen Nagasaki to score in both halves	18.6%	15.8%	—	—	6.34

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	55.8%	58.2%	50.5%	1.15×	1.72
Only Cerezo Osaka scores	26.3%	26.1%	17.7%	1.48×	3.83
Only V-Varen Nagasaki scores	12.4%	10.9%	25.0%	0.44×	9.14
Neither team scores	5.6%	7.2%	7.1%	1.01×	13.96

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.3%	22.6%	23.9%	0.95×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	23.4%	0.97×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	16.6%	17.5%	22.6%	0.77×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	16.0%	17.4%	12.3%	1.41×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	9.1%	7.6%	5.9%	1.30×	13.13
6 or more goals	7.1%	7.6%	5.5%	1.37×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	5.6%	7.6%	7.1%	1.07×	13.14

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	50.1%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
1 goal in 2nd half	31.4%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	18.5%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki not to win both halves	94.8%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Cerezo Osaka not to win both halves	84.6%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Cerezo Osaka to win both halves	15.4%	15.7%	—	—	6.38
V-Varen Nagasaki to win both halves	5.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.74

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka to win either half	63.7%	65.4%	—	—	1.53
V-Varen Nagasaki to win neither half	59.6%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
V-Varen Nagasaki to win either half	40.4%	40.5%	—	—	2.47
Cerezo Osaka to win neither half	36.3%	34.6%	—	—	2.89

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki not to win to nil	87.6%	88.2%	75.0%	1.18×	1.13
Cerezo Osaka not to win to nil	73.7%	75.3%	82.3%	0.91×	1.33
Cerezo Osaka to win to nil	26.3%	24.7%	17.7%	1.40×	4.04
V-Varen Nagasaki to win to nil	12.4%	11.8%	25.0%	0.47×	8.48

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.6%	24.1%	26.3%	0.92×	4.14
Cerezo Osaka by 1	23.3%	24.1%	19.3%	1.25×	4.14
V-Varen Nagasaki by 1	15.6%	16.9%	25.0%	0.68×	5.90
Cerezo Osaka by 2	15.5%	16.9%	6.0%	2.82×	5.90
Cerezo Osaka by 3+	12.1%	11.8%	6.0%	1.97×	8.46
V-Varen Nagasaki by 2	6.9%	7.2%	12.0%	0.60×	13.81
V-Varen Nagasaki by 3+	3.0%	2.7%	6.2%	0.44×	36.97