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Valencia v Alaves — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 22 December 2024 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG

2–2
1.35 – 1.54 xG
Shots
7 – 11
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
5 – 7
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.78 – 1.01
Goals − xG
+0.65 – +0.44
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.91.31.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Carlos Martín 6' — goalLuis Rioja 69' — goalJoan Jordán 87' — goalDani Gómez 97' — goal
Valencia 1.35 xGAlaves 1.56 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

André Almeida 5' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Carlos Martín 6' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Carlos Martín 6' — Goal (0.09 xG, Open Play)Kike García 6' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Adrián Pica 10' — Missed Shot (0.20 xG, From Corner)André Almeida 32' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Stoichkov 33' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Kike García 57' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Carlos Martín 61' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Luis Rioja 69' — Goal (0.74 xG, )Antonio Blanco 70' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Javier Guerra 72' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Enzo Barrenechea 76' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Joan Jordán 87' — Goal (0.74 xG, )Dani Gómez 92' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Manuel Sánchez 94' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Tomás Conechny 94' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Dani Gómez 97' — Goal (0.44 xG, Open Play)
Valencia attacking right Alaves attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' Valencia André Almeida 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Luis Rioja
6' Alaves Carlos Martín 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Kike García
6' Alaves Carlos Martín 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Goal
6' Alaves Kike García 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
10' Alaves Adrián Pica 0.20 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Joan Jordán
32' Valencia André Almeida 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Diego López
33' Alaves Stoichkov 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Carlos Martín
57' Alaves Kike García 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Stoichkov
61' Alaves Carlos Martín 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Kike García
69' Valencia Luis Rioja 0.74 Left Foot Goal
70' Alaves Antonio Blanco 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
72' Valencia Javier Guerra 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
76' Valencia Enzo Barrenechea 0.01 From Corner Missed Shot Javier Guerra
87' Alaves Joan Jordán 0.74 Right Foot Goal
92' Valencia Dani Gómez 0.03 Open Play Missed Shot Luis Rioja
94' Alaves Manuel Sánchez 0.01 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot
94' Alaves Tomás Conechny 0.05 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot
97' Valencia Dani Gómez 0.44 Open Play Right Foot Goal Diego López

Players

Alaves

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Joan Jordán MC 90 1 0 1 1 0.74 0.20 0.00
Kike García FW 90 0 0 2 2 0.14 0.20 0.34
Antonio Blanco MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Manuel Sánchez DL 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.07
Abdelkabir Abqar DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Moussa Diarra DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Carlos Vicente DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Carlos Martín ML 85 1 0 3 1 0.29 0.07 0.36
Adrián Pica DC 84 0 0 1 0 0.20 0.00 0.03
Stoichkov Sub 68 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.03 0.16
Antonio Sivera GK 58 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jesús Owono Sub 32 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jon Guridi MR 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ander Guevara Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Aleksander Sedlar Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tomás Conechny Sub 5 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.00

Valencia

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Luis Rioja DL 90 1 0 1 2 0.74 0.05 0.04
André Almeida AMC 90 0 0 2 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Stole Dimitrievski GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hugo Duro FW 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dimitri Foulquier DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.44
Diego López AML 90 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.45 0.45
Cristhian Mosquera DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yarek Gasiorowski DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Javier Guerra DMC 82 0 0 1 1 0.09 0.01 0.10
Enzo Barrenechea DMC 82 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.02
Sergi Canos Sub 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fran Pérez AMR 43 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dani Gómez Sub 8 1 0 2 0 0.47 0.00 0.47
Pepelu Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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