Valencia v Mallorca — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 19 December 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 4
On target
2 – 2
Shots in box
9 – 2
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.20 – 0.15
Goals − xG
-1.16 – +0.80
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Valencia win
39.5%
Draw
28.5%
Mallorca win
32.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Valencia have scored 12 from 12.6 expected and conceded 17 from 15.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWDWWDLLL last 10
scored 12
from 12.6 xG
conceded 17
from 15.9 xG
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLWDLLW last 10
scored 14
from 14.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.16–1.01 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.45–1.02 | 1-1 13% | 45% | 49% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Valencia 2.16 xGMallorca 0.20 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Valencia attacking right
Mallorca attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Beltrán |
| 6' |
Valencia |
José Gayá | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Rioja |
| 8' |
 Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mateo Joseph |
| 13' |
Mallorca |
Jan Virgili | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Samú Costa |
| 22' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | Raíllo |
| 24' |
Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | André Almeida |
| 36' |
Valencia |
Filip Ugrinic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Duro |
| 37' |
Valencia |
Lucas Beltrán | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pepelu |
| 38' |
Valencia |
Lucas Beltrán | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Rioja |
| 42' |
Valencia |
André Almeida | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 43' |
Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Duro |
| 51' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.60 | Open Play | — | Goal | Thierry Correia |
| 56' |
Valencia |
José Gayá | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Luis Rioja |
| 59' |
Valencia |
Filip Ugrinic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pepelu |
| 64' |
Valencia |
Lucas Beltrán | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | André Almeida |
| 74' |
Mallorca |
Mateo Joseph | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antonio Sánchez |
| 77' |
Valencia |
Lucas Beltrán | 0.58 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld |
| 84' |
Valencia |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | José Gayá |
Players
Valencia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Duro FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.66 | 0.03 | 0.70 |
| José Gayá DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 1.35 |
| Pepelu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.49 |
| Julen Agirrezabala GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| César Tárrega DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.10 |
| Copete DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.07 |
| Lucas Beltrán FW | 88 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.04 | 1.19 |
| André Almeida ML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.37 | 0.54 |
| Thierry Correia DR | 77 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 1.11 |
| Luis Rioja MR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 0.71 |
| Filip Ugrinic MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Javier Guerra Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Largie Ramazani Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| Dimitri Foulquier Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Diego López Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Mallorca
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vedat Muriqi FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Samú Costa DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Leo Román GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Johan Mojica DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Pablo Maffeo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Martin Valjent DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Raíllo DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| Mateo Joseph AMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| Antonio Sánchez AMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Jan Virgili AML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Manuel Morlanes DMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Sergi Darder Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marash Kumbulla Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mateu Morey Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Takuma Asano Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |