Vélez Sarsfield v Tigre — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 21 September 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Vélez Sarsfield

20:30

Tigre

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 329h before kick-off

Vélez Sarsfield win

44.1%

model 40.8%

Draw

28.4%

model 32.9%

Tigre win

27.5%

model 26.3%

442828

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 16.4%
0-0 16.4%
1-1 13.5%
0-1 12.1%
2-0 8.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	27.7%	Under 2.5	72.3%
BTTS yes	35.6%	BTTS no	64.4%
Vélez Sarsfield 1+	65.0%	Vélez Sarsfield 2+	28.2%
Tigre 1+	54.2%	Tigre 2+	18.4%

Expected goals 1.05 – 0.78. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

22/100

Data quality

55/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Under 2.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 66%

73.4% fair odds 1.36

moderate signal · 1338 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 1.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

83.6% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 388 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Vélez Sarsfield.

Risk factors

Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0033 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Vélez Sarsfield have an estimated 44.1% win probability, against 28.4% for the draw and 27.5% for Tigre. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.05 for Vélez Sarsfield and 0.78 for Tigre.

Why Vélez Sarsfield

Nothing in the data singles out Vélez Sarsfield.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.4%. A combined 1.83 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Tigre can win

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Vélez Sarsfield, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Tigre, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Vélez Sarsfield: 54% possession, 10.8 shots a match, 16.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Tigre: 45% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Vélez Sarsfield are the model's most likely outcome at 44.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 16.4%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	413326	1.05–0.78	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	393526	0.95–0.71	0-0 19%	23%	32%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to win	39.2%	36.4%	41.7%	0.87×	2.74
Draw	34.9%	30.4%	30.6%	0.99×	3.29
Tigre to win	25.9%	27.9%	27.8%	1.00×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield & not both score	29.7%	25.2%	27.8%	0.91×	3.97
Tigre & not both score	19.4%	17.9%	17.2%	1.04×	5.58
Draw & not both score	19.4%	17.9%	14.8%	1.21×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	15.6%	17.9%	15.9%	1.12×	5.58
Vélez Sarsfield & both teams score	9.5%	8.4%	14.1%	0.59×	11.92
Tigre & both teams score	6.5%	8.4%	10.7%	0.79×	11.93

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield & under 3.5	35.0%	30.9%	34.9%	0.89×	3.24
Draw & under 2.5	32.6%	30.9%	28.1%	1.10×	3.24
Draw & under 3.5	32.6%	30.9%	28.1%	1.10×	3.24
Vélez Sarsfield & under 2.5	26.2%	26.0%	23.6%	1.10×	3.84
Tigre & under 3.5	23.7%	21.7%	23.6%	0.92×	4.62
Vélez Sarsfield & over 1.5	21.5%	21.7%	27.6%	0.78×	4.62
Draw & under 1.5	19.4%	18.0%	14.8%	1.22×	5.56
Vélez Sarsfield & under 1.5	17.6%	18.0%	14.2%	1.26×	5.56
Tigre & under 2.5	18.0%	18.0%	14.7%	1.23×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	15.6%	18.0%	15.9%	1.13×	5.56
Vélez Sarsfield & over 2.5	13.0%	12.9%	18.2%	0.71×	7.77
Tigre & over 1.5	12.8%	12.9%	17.5%	0.73×	7.77
Tigre & under 1.5	13.2%	12.9%	10.3%	1.25×	7.77
Tigre & over 2.5	7.9%	7.9%	13.2%	0.60×	12.70
Vélez Sarsfield & over 3.5	4.2%	4.8%	7.0%	0.68×	20.93
Tigre & over 3.5	2.2%	4.8%	4.2%	1.13×	20.95
Draw & over 2.5	2.3%	4.8%	2.6%	1.81×	20.95
Draw & over 3.5	2.3%	4.8%	2.6%	1.81×	20.95

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (1UP)	49.5%	43.4%	—	—	2.31
Tigre (1UP)	37.2%	34.4%	—	—	2.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (2UP)	39.2%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
Tigre (2UP)	25.9%	24.8%	—	—	4.04

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	47.5%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Vélez Sarsfield to win 2nd half	30.1%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Tigre to win 2nd half	22.4%	23.1%	—	—	4.33

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre (+2.5)	95.9%	96.3%	95.0%	1.01×	1.04
Tigre (+1.5)	85.3%	88.5%	82.5%	1.07×	1.13
Vélez Sarsfield (+0.5)	74.1%	73.7%	72.2%	1.02×	1.36
Tigre (+0.5)	60.8%	62.9%	58.3%	1.08×	1.59
Vélez Sarsfield (-0.5)	39.2%	37.1%	41.7%	0.89×	2.70
Tigre (-0.5)	25.9%	26.3%	27.8%	0.95×	3.81
Vélez Sarsfield (-1.5)	14.7%	11.5%	17.5%	0.66×	8.69
Vélez Sarsfield (-2.5)	4.1%	3.7%	5.0%	0.74×	26.81

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre to concede	61.3%	67.2%	68.1%	0.99×	1.49
Tigre clean sheet	38.7%	32.8%	31.9%	1.03×	3.05

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre clean sheet in 1st half	66.5%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
Tigre to concede in 1st half	33.5%	30.8%	—	—	3.25

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre under 6.5 corners	90.1%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Tigre under 5.5 corners	82.2%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Tigre under 4.5 corners	70.1%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Tigre over 2.5 corners	65.4%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Tigre under 3.5 corners	53.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Tigre over 3.5 corners	46.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Tigre under 2.5 corners	34.6%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Tigre over 4.5 corners	29.9%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Tigre over 5.5 corners	17.8%	18.5%	—	—	5.39
Tigre over 6.5 corners	9.9%	10.0%	—	—	10.03

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre under 3.5 goals	99.4%	97.6%	98.9%	0.99×	1.03
Tigre under 2.5 goals	96.4%	97.5%	93.3%	1.04×	1.03
Tigre under 1.5 goals	84.0%	81.4%	78.2%	1.04×	1.23
Tigre over 0.5 goals	51.0%	53.7%	57.6%	0.93×	1.86
Tigre under 0.5 goals	49.0%	46.3%	42.4%	1.09×	2.16
Tigre over 1.5 goals	16.0%	18.6%	21.8%	0.85×	5.38
Tigre over 2.5 goals	3.6%	2.5%	6.7%	0.37×	40.69
Tigre over 3.5 goals	0.6%	2.4%	1.1%	2.13×	40.85

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre under 1.5 in 1st half	96.6%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Tigre under 0.5 in 1st half	75.2%	75.4%	—	—	1.33
Tigre over 0.5 in 1st half	24.8%	24.6%	—	—	4.07
Tigre over 1.5 in 1st half	3.4%	4.2%	—	—	23.62

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (away no bet)	52.9%	51.2%	57.7%	0.89×	1.95
Draw (away no bet)	47.1%	48.8%	42.3%	1.15×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre even goals	62.0%	59.0%	58.4%	1.01×	1.69
Tigre odd goals	38.0%	41.0%	41.6%	0.98×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	96.1%	96.2%	—	—	1.04
Both halves over 1.5 goals	3.9%	3.8%	—	—	26.43

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	63.1%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Not both halves under 1.5	36.9%	41.9%	—	—	2.39

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	32.2%	29.0%	—	—	3.45
Vélez Sarsfield to score 2+ in a row	20.9%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Tigre to score 2+ in a row	12.8%	12.2%	—	—	8.21
Either team to score 3+ in a row	7.7%	5.7%	—	—	17.67
Vélez Sarsfield to score 3+ in a row	5.3%	5.6%	—	—	17.86
Tigre to score 3+ in a row	2.4%	2.6%	—	—	39.11

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield corners (+3.5)	94.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Vélez Sarsfield corners (+2.5)	89.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Vélez Sarsfield corners (+1.5)	83.5%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Tigre corners (+3.5)	69.0%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Tigre corners (+2.5)	58.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Vélez Sarsfield corners (-1.5)	53.1%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Tigre corners (+1.5)	46.9%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Vélez Sarsfield corners (-2.5)	41.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Vélez Sarsfield corners (-3.5)	31.0%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Tigre corners (-1.5)	16.5%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
Tigre corners (-2.5)	10.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.46
Tigre corners (-3.5)	5.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	47.5%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	29.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	23.1%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	83.7%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	76.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	68.5%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	63.9%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	58.5%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	52.5%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	47.5%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	41.5%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	36.1%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	31.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	23.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	16.3%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-0	19.4%	13.8%	14.8%	0.93×	7.25
1-0	17.6%	13.8%	14.2%	0.97×	7.26
0-1	13.2%	11.5%	10.3%	1.11×	8.73
1-1	13.2%	11.5%	13.4%	0.85×	8.73
2-0	8.5%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.48
2-1	6.1%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.48
0-2	4.8%	1.7%	4.5%	0.38×	58.46
0-3	1.1%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.48
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.6%	2.98×	58.49
1-2	4.6%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.46
1-3	1.1%	1.7%	2.0%	0.88×	58.48
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	4.97×	58.49
2-2	2.2%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.48
2-3	0.5%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.49
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	14.91×	58.49
3-0	2.7%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.47
3-1	1.9%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.48
3-2	0.7%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.49
3-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	4.97×	58.49
3-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	14.91×	58.49
4-0	0.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.49×	58.49
4-1	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.13×	58.49
4-2	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	4.97×	58.49
4-3	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.45×	58.49
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.45×	58.49
Any other score	0.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.86×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield leading at HT (DNB)	60.4%	65.6%	—	—	1.53
Tigre leading at HT (DNB)	39.6%	34.4%	—	—	2.90

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield or draw (1X)	74.1%	72.1%	72.2%	1.00×	1.39
Vélez Sarsfield or Tigre (12)	65.1%	69.6%	69.4%	1.00×	1.44
Tigre or draw (X2)	60.8%	63.6%	58.3%	1.09×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield or draw at HT	82.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Tigre or draw at HT	73.5%	74.4%	—	—	1.35
Vélez Sarsfield or Tigre at HT	43.9%	43.1%	—	—	2.32

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield or draw (1UP)	74.1%	80.2%	—	—	1.25
Tigre or draw (1UP)	60.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield or draw in 2nd half	77.6%	76.9%	—	—	1.30
Tigre or draw in 2nd half	69.9%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Vélez Sarsfield or Tigre in 2nd half	52.5%	54.5%	—	—	1.83

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	76.6%	77.2%	—	—	1.30
Neither half drawn	23.4%	22.8%	—	—	4.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (DNB)	60.2%	62.8%	60.1%	1.04×	1.59
Tigre (DNB)	39.8%	37.2%	39.9%	0.93×	2.69

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to score first	46.1%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Tigre to score first	34.6%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
No goal scored	19.4%	18.9%	—	—	5.29

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	68.4%	58.2%	59.5%	0.98×	1.72
Both teams to score	31.6%	41.8%	40.5%	1.03×	2.39

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	63.5%	50.2%	52.9%	0.95×	1.99
Both score & over 2.5	18.4%	21.7%	27.2%	0.80×	4.60
Both score & under 2.5	13.2%	12.3%	13.4%	0.92×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	4.9%	4.7%	6.8%	0.70×	21.23

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	96.1%	91.7%	94.2%	0.97×	1.09
Both teams to score 2+	3.9%	8.3%	5.8%	1.42×	12.08

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	85.3%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score in 2nd half	14.7%	14.3%	—	—	6.99

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	78.2%	76.3%	—	—	1.31
Both score 2nd half only	13.5%	10.8%	—	—	9.29
Both score 1st half only	7.2%	6.8%	—	—	14.74
Both score in both halves	1.2%	4.9%	—	—	20.50

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	91.6%	91.8%	—	—	1.09
Both teams to score by HT	8.4%	8.2%	—	—	12.23

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	68.8%	67.0%	—	—	1.49
A goal in each half	31.2%	33.1%	—	—	3.03

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	41.1%	42.1%	47.4%	0.89×	2.38
0-1 goals	50.1%	40.9%	39.1%	1.05×	2.44
4-6 goals	8.6%	7.6%	13.3%	0.57×	13.14
7+ goals	0.2%	1.8%	0.5%	3.98×	54.79

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre to score exactly 0	49.0%	43.0%	42.4%	1.01×	2.33
Tigre to score exactly 1	34.9%	33.8%	35.9%	0.94×	2.96
Tigre to score exactly 2	12.5%	12.8%	15.3%	0.84×	7.80
Tigre to score 3+	3.6%	4.5%	6.7%	0.68×	22.06

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to score exactly 0	38.7%	35.6%	31.9%	1.12×	2.81
Vélez Sarsfield to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.6%	36.6%	0.97×	2.81
Vélez Sarsfield to score exactly 2	17.4%	18.9%	21.8%	0.87×	5.29
Vélez Sarsfield to score 3+	7.1%	10.3%	10.0%	1.03×	9.73

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	56.1%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Vélez Sarsfield leading at HT	26.5%	25.6%	—	—	3.90
Tigre leading at HT	17.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.44

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield -1: 2	60.8%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Vélez Sarsfield -1: X	24.5%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Vélez Sarsfield -1: 1	14.7%	14.0%	—	—	7.14

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre (0:1)	60.8%	61.4%	58.3%	1.05×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	24.5%	24.3%	24.3%	1.00×	4.12
Vélez Sarsfield (0:1)	14.7%	13.9%	17.5%	0.79×	7.21

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre (0:2)	85.3%	86.9%	82.5%	1.05×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	10.6%	11.0%	12.6%	0.87×	9.13
Vélez Sarsfield (0:2)	4.1%	3.8%	5.0%	0.75×	26.51

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre (0:3)	95.9%	96.6%	95.0%	1.02×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.2%	2.4%	3.4%	0.69×	42.12
Vélez Sarsfield (0:3)	0.9%	2.4%	1.7%	1.38×	42.23

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre (0:4)	99.1%	98.1%	98.3%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	1.3%	0.95×	83.60
Vélez Sarsfield (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	0.6%	2.08×	83.67

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (1:0)	74.1%	72.6%	72.2%	1.00×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	18.3%	17.0%	18.7%	0.91×	5.87
Tigre (1:0)	7.6%	6.9%	9.2%	0.76×	14.44

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (2:0)	92.4%	93.9%	90.8%	1.03×	1.07
Draw (2:0)	6.0%	6.5%	6.3%	1.02×	15.50
Tigre (2:0)	1.6%	2.3%	3.0%	0.76×	44.27

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	40.4%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
Halves equal	34.6%	29.9%	—	—	3.34
1st half highest scoring	25.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to concede	51.0%	53.1%	57.6%	0.92×	1.88
Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet	49.0%	46.9%	42.4%	1.11×	2.13

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet in 1st half	75.2%	76.9%	—	—	1.30
Vélez Sarsfield to concede in 1st half	24.8%	23.1%	—	—	4.33

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield over 2.5 corners	85.9%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Vélez Sarsfield over 3.5 corners	73.4%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Vélez Sarsfield under 6.5 corners	68.0%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Vélez Sarsfield over 4.5 corners	59.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Vélez Sarsfield under 5.5 corners	55.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Vélez Sarsfield over 5.5 corners	44.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Vélez Sarsfield under 4.5 corners	41.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Vélez Sarsfield over 6.5 corners	32.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Vélez Sarsfield under 3.5 corners	26.6%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Vélez Sarsfield under 2.5 corners	14.1%	13.7%	—	—	7.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield under 3.5 goals	98.4%	96.4%	97.1%	0.99×	1.04
Vélez Sarsfield under 2.5 goals	92.9%	92.3%	90.0%	1.02×	1.08
Vélez Sarsfield under 1.5 goals	75.5%	77.7%	68.3%	1.14×	1.29
Vélez Sarsfield over 0.5 goals	61.3%	63.5%	68.1%	0.93×	1.58
Vélez Sarsfield under 0.5 goals	38.7%	36.5%	31.9%	1.15×	2.74
Vélez Sarsfield over 1.5 goals	24.5%	22.3%	31.7%	0.70×	4.49
Vélez Sarsfield over 2.5 goals	7.1%	7.7%	10.0%	0.78×	12.91
Vélez Sarsfield over 3.5 goals	1.6%	3.6%	2.9%	1.27×	27.54

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield under 1.5 in 1st half	93.6%	95.5%	—	—	1.05
Vélez Sarsfield under 0.5 in 1st half	66.5%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Vélez Sarsfield over 0.5 in 1st half	33.5%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Vélez Sarsfield over 1.5 in 1st half	6.4%	4.5%	—	—	22.13

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	57.4%	56.7%	52.5%	1.08×	1.76
Tigre (home no bet)	42.6%	43.3%	47.5%	0.91×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield even goals	57.5%	55.5%	55.7%	1.00×	1.80
Vélez Sarsfield odd goals	42.5%	44.5%	44.3%	1.01×	2.25

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	50.1%	48.8%	—	—	2.05
HT 1-0	20.3%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
HT 0-1	14.2%	10.9%	—	—	9.14
HT 1-1	5.9%	7.1%	—	—	14.07
HT 2-0	4.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.30
HT 0-2	2.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.46
HT 2-1	1.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.52
Any other HT score	1.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.53
HT 1-2	0.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.55
HT 2-2	0.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.60

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	27.0%	26.8%	—	—	3.74
Vélez Sarsfield at HT / Vélez Sarsfield at FT	21.4%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Draw at HT / Vélez Sarsfield at FT	16.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Tigre at HT / Tigre at FT	12.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Tigre at FT	12.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Vélez Sarsfield at HT / Draw at FT	4.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
Tigre at HT / Draw at FT	3.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Tigre at HT / Vélez Sarsfield at FT	1.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.92
Vélez Sarsfield at HT / Tigre at FT	1.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.93

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to score last	46.1%	46.6%	—	—	2.14
Tigre to score last	34.6%	33.1%	—	—	3.02
No goal scored	19.4%	13.6%	—	—	7.36

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	80.7%	86.9%	—	—	1.15
Vélez Sarsfield to lead by 1 at any time	49.5%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Tigre to lead by 1 at any time	37.2%	34.8%	—	—	2.87
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	27.5%	25.4%	—	—	3.93
Vélez Sarsfield to lead by 2 at any time	17.6%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Tigre to lead by 2 at any time	9.9%	6.7%	—	—	14.94
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	6.7%	6.6%	—	—	15.09
Vélez Sarsfield to lead by 3 at any time	4.7%	1.7%	—	—	59.70
Tigre to lead by 3 at any time	2.0%	1.6%	—	—	62.32

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield most corners	64.6%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Tigre most corners	25.0%	30.9%	—	—	3.23
Corners level	10.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	79.9%	78.6%	84.3%	0.93×	1.27
1-4 goals	77.9%	78.6%	80.0%	0.98×	1.27
1-3 goals	71.9%	72.4%	71.7%	1.01×	1.38
1-2 goals	57.4%	59.2%	51.5%	1.15×	1.69
2-6 goals	49.7%	48.7%	60.6%	0.80×	2.06
2-5 goals	49.1%	48.7%	60.0%	0.81×	2.06
2-4 goals	47.1%	48.7%	55.7%	0.87×	2.06
2-3 goals	41.1%	43.6%	47.4%	0.92×	2.30
3-6 goals	23.1%	24.5%	33.5%	0.73×	4.09
3-5 goals	22.6%	24.5%	32.9%	0.74×	4.09
3-4 goals	20.6%	24.5%	28.7%	0.85×	4.09
4-6 goals	8.6%	8.7%	13.3%	0.66×	11.44
4-5 goals	8.0%	8.7%	12.7%	0.69×	11.44
5-6 goals	2.6%	2.6%	4.9%	0.52×	39.22
7+ goals	0.2%	2.5%	0.5%	5.54×	39.33

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield never behind	43.5%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Tigre never behind	31.1%	35.6%	—	—	2.81

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.5%	50.8%	49.1%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.5%	49.2%	50.9%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	62.6%	59.2%	—	—	1.69
Odd goals in 1st half	37.4%	40.8%	—	—	2.45

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	57.5%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Odd goals in 2nd half	42.5%	40.0%	—	—	2.50

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	99.3%	95.5%	99.0%	0.97×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	97.3%	95.5%	94.7%	1.01×	1.05
Under 3.5 goals	91.2%	92.3%	86.4%	1.07×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	80.7%	82.4%	85.2%	0.97×	1.21
Under 2.5 goals	76.7%	77.3%	66.2%	1.17×	1.29
Under 1.5 goals	50.1%	52.5%	39.1%	1.34×	1.91
Over 1.5 goals	49.9%	47.5%	60.9%	0.78×	2.10
Over 2.5 goals	23.3%	22.7%	33.8%	0.67×	4.41
Under 0.5 goals	19.4%	17.6%	14.8%	1.19×	5.67
Over 3.5 goals	8.8%	7.7%	13.6%	0.57×	12.92
Over 4.5 goals	2.7%	4.5%	5.3%	0.85×	22.22
Over 5.5 goals	0.7%	4.5%	1.0%	4.35×	22.25

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.8%	97.2%	99.5%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	99.3%	97.2%	98.9%	0.98×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	97.1%	97.2%	94.2%	1.03×	1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	89.8%	86.8%	82.9%	1.05×	1.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	68.3%	67.4%	53.6%	1.26×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	31.7%	32.6%	46.4%	0.70×	3.07
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	10.2%	13.2%	17.1%	0.77×	7.55
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	2.9%	2.8%	5.8%	0.48×	36.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	0.7%	2.8%	1.1%	2.56×	36.20
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.2%	2.8%	0.5%	5.98×	36.22

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	96.7%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Under 1.5 in 1st half	84.6%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Under 0.5 in 1st half	50.1%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
Over 0.5 in 1st half	49.9%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
Over 1.5 in 1st half	15.4%	13.7%	—	—	7.32
Over 2.5 in 1st half	3.3%	2.8%	—	—	35.26

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	92.5%	89.4%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	74.6%	77.8%	—	—	1.29
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	61.9%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	38.1%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	25.4%	22.2%	—	—	4.50
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	7.5%	10.6%	—	—	9.40

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre not to score in both halves	91.4%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Vélez Sarsfield not to score in both halves	86.0%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Vélez Sarsfield to score in both halves	14.0%	14.3%	—	—	6.98
Tigre to score in both halves	8.6%	10.0%	—	—	10.03

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	31.6%	33.3%	40.5%	0.82×	3.00
Only Vélez Sarsfield scores	29.7%	26.1%	27.8%	0.94×	3.83
Neither team scores	19.4%	16.1%	14.8%	1.09×	6.21
Only Tigre scores	19.4%	16.1%	17.2%	0.94×	6.21

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 1 goals	30.8%	25.2%	24.4%	1.03×	3.97
Exactly 2 goals	26.6%	25.0%	27.2%	0.92×	4.01
Exactly 0 goals	19.4%	17.4%	14.8%	1.18×	5.74
Exactly 3 goals	14.5%	12.1%	20.3%	0.60×	8.27
Exactly 4 goals	6.0%	7.6%	8.5%	0.90×	13.09
Exactly 5 goals	2.0%	4.4%	4.4%	1.01×	22.69
6 or more goals	0.7%	4.4%	1.0%	4.27×	22.71

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 2nd half	38.1%	39.8%	—	—	2.51
1 goal in 2nd half	36.5%	39.6%	—	—	2.53
2+ goals in 2nd half	25.4%	29.7%	—	—	3.36

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre not to win both halves	96.1%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Vélez Sarsfield not to win both halves	92.0%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Vélez Sarsfield to win both halves	8.0%	6.1%	—	—	16.48
Tigre to win both halves	3.9%	2.8%	—	—	35.59

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre to win neither half	64.2%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
Vélez Sarsfield to win neither half	51.4%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Vélez Sarsfield to win either half	48.6%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Tigre to win either half	35.8%	34.9%	—	—	2.87

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tigre not to win to nil	80.6%	83.0%	82.8%	1.00×	1.21
Vélez Sarsfield not to win to nil	70.3%	75.3%	72.2%	1.04×	1.33
Vélez Sarsfield to win to nil	29.7%	24.7%	27.8%	0.89×	4.04
Tigre to win to nil	19.4%	17.0%	17.2%	0.99×	5.89

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	34.9%	27.7%	30.6%	0.90×	3.62
Vélez Sarsfield by 1	24.5%	24.2%	24.3%	0.99×	4.14
Tigre by 1	18.3%	16.9%	18.7%	0.91×	5.91
Vélez Sarsfield by 2	10.6%	11.8%	12.6%	0.94×	8.48
Tigre by 2	6.0%	7.3%	6.3%	1.15×	13.79
Vélez Sarsfield by 3+	4.1%	2.7%	5.0%	0.54×	36.95
Tigre by 3+	1.6%	2.7%	3.0%	0.91×	37.03