Venezia v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 August 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 12
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
12 – 6
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
1.17 – 0.87
Goals − xG
-3.28 – -0.45
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Venezia win
43.4%
Draw
29.3%
Lecce win
27.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Venezia are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WDLDWLLLLL last 10
scored 10
from 15.4 xG
conceded 19
from 17.8 xG
Lecce are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDWLWWWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.1 xG
conceded 14
from 22.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.20–0.88 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.40–1.04 | 1-1 13% | 44% | 49% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Venezia 3.28 xGLecce 2.45 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Venezia attacking right
Lecce attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Venezia |
Antoine Hainaut | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kike Pérez |
| 10' |
Venezia |
Akor Adams | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
Venezia |
John Yeboah | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Toma Basic |
| 15' |
Venezia |
Thierry Correia | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | John Yeboah |
| 21' |
Venezia |
John Yeboah | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 22' |
 Lecce |
Konan N’Dri | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
Venezia |
Thierry Correia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Toma Basic |
| 31' |
Venezia |
Gianluca Busio | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Joël Schingtienne |
| 33' |
Lecce |
Antonino Gallo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Oumar Ngom |
| 35' |
Lecce |
Lassana Coulibaly | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 45' |
Lecce |
Olaf Gorter | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lassana Coulibaly |
| 46' |
Venezia |
Thierry Correia | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Venezia |
Armel Bella Kotchap | 0.49 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Toma Basic |
| 49' |
Venezia |
Gianluca Busio | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thierry Correia |
| 56' |
Venezia |
Gianluca Busio | 0.14 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Venezia |
Akor Adams | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gianluca Busio |
| 63' |
Venezia |
Akor Adams | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Antoine Hainaut |
| 66' |
Venezia |
Antoine Hainaut | 0.26 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ridgeciano Haps |
| 71' |
Venezia |
Bartol Franjic | 0.32 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' |
Venezia |
Bartol Franjic | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 76' |
Lecce |
Youssef Maleh | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jamil Siebert |
| 78' |
Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 78' |
Lecce |
Oumar Ngom | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lassana Coulibaly |
| 78' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Lecce |
Tiago Gabriel | 0.81 | From Corner | — | Goal | — |
| 81' |
Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.58 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jamil Siebert |
| 83' |
Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.61 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Santiago Pierotti |
| 83' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Youssef Maleh |
| 90' |
Venezia |
Albion Rrahmani | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Venezia |
Ridgeciano Haps | 0.57 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 93' |
Venezia |
Albion Rrahmani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | John Yeboah |
Players
Venezia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Yeboah FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.37 | 1.35 |
| Armel Bella Kotchap DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Bartol Franjic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Gianluca Busio MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.02 | 0.63 |
| Akor Adams FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Joël Schingtienne DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| Filip Stankovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Antoine Hainaut DMR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.04 | 0.57 |
| Toma Basic MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.28 |
| Kike Pérez MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| Thierry Correia DML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.04 | 0.54 |
| Ridgeciano Haps Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.26 | 0.83 |
| Matteo Dagasso Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Albion Rrahmani Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Richie Sagrado Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Pierotti FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.61 | 0.84 |
| Lassana Coulibaly MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.89 |
| Oumar Ngom MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.60 |
| Danilo Veiga DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jamil Siebert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| Kialonda Gaspar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konan N’Dri FWL | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Willem Geubbels FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Olaf Gorter MC | 63 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Antonino Gallo DL | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Corrie Ndaba Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Youssef Maleh Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| Nikola Stulic Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.23 | 0.00 | 1.23 |
| Tiago Gabriel Sub | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Omri Gandelman Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |