Venezia v Monza — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 12 April 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 10
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
4 – 6
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.92 – 0.16
Goals − xG
-0.62 – -0.59
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Venezia win
44.9%
Draw
31.6%
Monza win
23.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Venezia are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWDLDWLLLL last 10
scored 9
from 13.8 xG
conceded 17
from 17.5 xG
Monza are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 6.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLLWLLLL last 10
scored 7
from 10.3 xG
conceded 24
from 17.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.35–0.92 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.45–0.95 | 1-0 13% | 43% | 47% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Venezia 1.62 xGMonza 0.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Venezia attacking right
Monza attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Monza |
Dany Mota | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Patrick Ciurria |
| 5' |
 Venezia |
Christian Gytkjær | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
Venezia |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 28' |
Venezia |
Alessandro Marcandalli | 0.55 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jay Idzes |
| 33' |
Venezia |
Gaetano Oristanio | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alessio Zerbin |
| 38' |
Monza |
Kacper Urbanski | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Gianluca Caprari |
| 45' |
Venezia |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alessio Zerbin |
| 46' |
Monza |
Samuele Birindelli | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gianluca Caprari |
| 50' |
Monza |
Dany Mota | 0.21 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Samuele Birindelli |
| 55' |
Monza |
Gianluca Caprari | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Monza |
Dany Mota | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kacper Urbanski |
| 65' |
Monza |
Dany Mota | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Samuele Birindelli |
| 69' |
Venezia |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Venezia |
Daniel Fila | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mikael Ellertsson |
| 76' |
Venezia |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.16 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 86' |
Monza |
Pedro Pereira | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Samuele Birindelli |
| 88' |
Venezia |
Issa Doumbia | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | John Yeboah |
| 90' |
Monza |
Gianluca Caprari | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Omari Forson |
| 96' |
Monza |
Luca Caldirola | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Monza
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dany Mota FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Samuele Birindelli DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| Pedro Pereira DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Stefano Turati GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrick Ciurria DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Bianco MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Kacper Urbanski MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Andrea Carboni DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gianluca Caprari Sub | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.32 |
| Armando Izzo DC | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Caldirola Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Keita FW | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tomás Palacios Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Roberto Gagliardini Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omari Forson Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
Venezia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Fali Candé DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Ionut Radu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| Alessio Zerbin DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Mikael Ellertsson DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| Gianluca Busio MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kike Pérez MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli DC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gaetano Oristanio FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Christian Gytkjær FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Fila Sub | 27 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| John Yeboah Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Ridgeciano Haps Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Issa Doumbia Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Cheick Conde Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |