VfB Stuttgart v Bayer Leverkusen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 16 March 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 17
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 13
xG per shot
0.26 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.44
Goals − xG
-0.14 – +1.92
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.VfB Stuttgart win
26.7%
Draw
29.2%
Bayer Leverkusen win
44.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWWLWWLDLW last 10
scored 25
from 28.0 xG
conceded 17
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.22–1.61 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
VfB Stuttgart 3.14 xGBayer Leverkusen 2.08 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
VfB Stuttgart attacking right
Bayer Leverkusen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nordi Mukiele |
| 10' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jeremie Frimpong | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Robert Andrich |
| 13' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.73 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 13' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 20' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 24' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Nick Woltemade | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 25' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Finn Jeltsch | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 45' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Granit Xhaka | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Patrik Schick |
| 45' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Enzo Millot | 0.57 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 47' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Nick Woltemade | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Enzo Millot |
| 51' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Piero Hincapié | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 51' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Piero Hincapié | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nordi Mukiele |
| 55' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jeremie Frimpong | 0.09 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 55' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Robert Andrich | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Finn Jeltsch |
| 61' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Granit Xhaka | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 61' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 64' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Victor Boniface | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Granit Xhaka |
| 65' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jeremie Frimpong |
| 66' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Piero Hincapié | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 75' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 77' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Victor Boniface |
| 81' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Amine Adli | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nordi Mukiele |
| 85' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 87' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 93' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Goal | Jeremie Frimpong |
| 95' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Exequiel Palacios | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Amine Adli |
| 95' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Victor Boniface | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Exequiel Palacios |
Players
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Schick FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1.08 | 0.03 | 1.17 |
| Piero Hincapié DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Jeremie Frimpong MR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.44 | 1.45 |
| Exequiel Palacios AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.57 |
| Granit Xhaka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.81 |
| Jonathan Tah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Lukas Hradecky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Nordi Mukiele DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.90 |
| Robert Andrich DC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.64 |
| Álex Grimaldo ML | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| Aleix García MC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Amine Adli Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.11 | 0.42 |
| Victor Boniface Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.22 |
| Arthur Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Woltemade FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.58 | 0.74 | 1.76 |
| Angelo Stiller MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.03 | 0.49 |
| Finn Jeltsch DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.59 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ramon Hendriks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Atakan Karazor MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Ermedin Demirovic FW | 78 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.23 | 0.00 | 2.29 |
| Ameen Al Dakhil DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Enzo Millot ML | 69 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.48 | 1.16 |
| Jamie Leweling MR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.50 | 0.71 |
| Deniz Undav Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Joshua Vagnoman Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julian Chabot Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| El Bilal Touré Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chris Führich Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |