VfB Stuttgart v Bayern Munich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 6 December 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 20
On target
1 – 10
Shots in box
8 – 16
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.94
Goals − xG
-0.73 – +0.92
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.VfB Stuttgart win
15.3%
Draw
19.2%
Bayern Munich win
65.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
Bayern Munich are finishing above their chances — 3.0 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWWDWWW last 10
scored 35
from 32.0 xG
conceded 13
from 17.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.07–2.36 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.05–2.36 | 1-2 10% | 66% | 59% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
VfB Stuttgart 0.73 xGBayern Munich 4.08 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
VfB Stuttgart attacking right
Bayern Munich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Bayern Munich |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikolas Nartey |
| 8' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
Bayern Munich |
Konrad Laimer | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 16' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Nikolas Nartey | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 22' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 25' |
Bayern Munich |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 27' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 28' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 29' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dayotchanculle Upamecano |
| 44' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Bayern Munich |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Bayern Munich |
Dayotchanculle Upamecano | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 49' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 49' |
Bayern Munich |
Raphael Guerreiro | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Josip Stanisic |
| 49' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chema Andres | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nikolas Nartey |
| 57' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Leon Goretzka |
| 58' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Chema Andres |
| 59' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 65' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Joshua Kimmich |
| 69' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Joshua Vagnoman | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Bayern Munich |
Lennart Karl | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 72' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.18 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dayotchanculle Upamecano |
| 77' |
Bayern Munich |
Josip Stanisic | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Luis Díaz |
| 79' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Harry Kane |
| 81' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 84' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleksandar Pavlovic |
| 86' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 87' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.90 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 92' |
Bayern Munich |
Konrad Laimer | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Michael Olise |
Players
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deniz Undav FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.07 | 0.36 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| Chema Andres DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.27 |
| Jamie Leweling AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Ameen Al Dakhil DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Angelo Stiller DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.27 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ramon Hendriks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Joshua Vagnoman DR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Bilal El Khannouss AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Nikolas Nartey AMR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| Chris Führich Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tiago Tomás Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lorenz Assignon Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Finn Jeltsch Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Atakan Karazor Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konrad Laimer DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.73 | 0.03 | 1.88 |
| Michael Olise AMR | 90 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0.59 | 1.63 | 2.29 |
| Luis Díaz AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.21 | 2.10 |
| Dayotchanculle Upamecano DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1.45 |
| Jonas Urbig GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Kim Min-Jae DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.16 |
| Leon Goretzka DMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| Nicolas Jackson FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Raphael Guerreiro AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Bischof DL | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josip Stanisic Sub | 36 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.61 |
| Harry Kane Sub | 22 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.76 | 0.30 | 1.56 |
| Lennart Karl Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.53 |
| Hiroki Ito Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |