VfB Stuttgart v FC Heidenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 5 October 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 5
On target
6 – 1
Shots in box
7 – 4
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.12 – -0.29
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.VfB Stuttgart win
65.5%
Draw
20.5%
FC Heidenheim win
14.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.10–0.87 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.57–1.03 | 2-1 9% | 70% | 60% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
VfB Stuttgart 1.12 xGFC Heidenheim 0.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
VfB Stuttgart attacking right
FC Heidenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Badredine Bouanani | 0.21 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lorenz Assignon |
| 19' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Mikkel Kaufmann | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 22' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 29' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Julian Chabot | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luca Jaquez |
| 37' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Badredine Bouanani | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ermedin Demirovic |
| 42' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Lorenz Assignon | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 44' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mikkel Kaufmann | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Omar Traoré |
| 46' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Luca Jaquez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chema Andres |
| 55' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Badredine Bouanani | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luca Jaquez |
| 60' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Julian Chabot | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ameen Al Dakhil |
| 61' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 64' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 64' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Julian Chabot |
| 76' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 80' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ermedin Demirovic |
| 83' |
FC Heidenheim |
Stefan Schimmer | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yannik Wagner |
| 84' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 84' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 89' |
FC Heidenheim |
Patrick Mainka | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
FC Heidenheim |
Patrick Mainka | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adam Kölle |
Players
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ermedin Demirovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.13 | 0.36 |
| Jamie Leweling AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.42 |
| Bilal El Khannouss AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.07 | 0.27 | 0.45 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.31 |
| Lorenz Assignon DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.21 | 0.51 |
| Chema Andres DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.30 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Badredine Bouanani AMR | 58 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Atakan Karazor DMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Luca Jaquez DC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| Ameen Al Dakhil Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| Tiago Tomás Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Angelo Stiller Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Ramon Hendriks Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikolas Nartey Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikkel Kaufmann FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Tim Siersleben DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan Schöppner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jonas Föhrenbach DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arijon Ibrahimovic ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Diant Ramaj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Omar Traoré DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Luca Kerber MR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julian Niehues DMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Niklas Dorsch MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefan Schimmer Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Marnon Busch Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yannik Wagner Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| Tobias Weigel Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Adam Kölle Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |