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VfB Stuttgart v Holstein Kiel — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 26 October 2024 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

2–1
1.91 – 0.68 xG
Shots
16 – 9
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
12 – 7
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.04
Goals − xG
+0.09 – +0.31
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.11.62.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Deniz Undav 18' — goalEl Bilal Touré 60' — goalArmin Gigovic 83' — goal
VfB Stuttgart 1.91 xGHolstein Kiel 0.69 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Jamie Leweling 8' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Fabian Rieder 11' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)El Bilal Touré 16' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Deniz Undav 18' — Goal (0.54 xG, Open Play)El Bilal Touré 30' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Jamie Leweling 36' — Missed Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Fabian Rieder 37' — Saved Shot (0.33 xG, Open Play)Benedikt Pichler 38' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Patrick Erras 39' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)El Bilal Touré 40' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Angelo Stiller 42' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Julian Chabot 46' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Deniz Undav 55' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Marvin Schulz 57' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Jamie Leweling 59' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Jamie Leweling 59' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)El Bilal Touré 60' — Goal (0.04 xG, Open Play)Nicolai Remberg 63' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Anrie Chase 64' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Patrick Erras 77' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Marko Ivezic 78' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Armin Gigovic 83' — Goal (0.03 xG, Open Play)Phil Harres 83' — Shot On Post (0.38 xG, Open Play)Ermedin Demirovic 88' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Shuto Machino 91' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)
VfB Stuttgart attacking right Holstein Kiel attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
8' VfB Stuttgart Jamie Leweling 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Deniz Undav
11' VfB Stuttgart Fabian Rieder 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Joshua Vagnoman
16' VfB Stuttgart El Bilal Touré 0.04 Open Play Missed Shot Maximilian Mittelstädt
18' VfB Stuttgart Deniz Undav 0.54 Open Play Right Foot Goal El Bilal Touré
30' VfB Stuttgart El Bilal Touré 0.08 Open Play Missed Shot Joshua Vagnoman
36' VfB Stuttgart Jamie Leweling 0.30 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Angelo Stiller
37' VfB Stuttgart Fabian Rieder 0.33 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Angelo Stiller
38' Holstein Kiel Benedikt Pichler 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Jann-Fiete Arp
39' Holstein Kiel Patrick Erras 0.02 From Corner Blocked Shot Marvin Schulz
40' VfB Stuttgart El Bilal Touré 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Enzo Millot
42' VfB Stuttgart Angelo Stiller 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Maximilian Mittelstädt
46' VfB Stuttgart Julian Chabot 0.02 From Corner Missed Shot Enzo Millot
55' VfB Stuttgart Deniz Undav 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot El Bilal Touré
57' Holstein Kiel Marvin Schulz 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
59' VfB Stuttgart Jamie Leweling 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Enzo Millot
59' VfB Stuttgart Jamie Leweling 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Maximilian Mittelstädt
60' VfB Stuttgart El Bilal Touré 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Goal Julian Chabot
63' Holstein Kiel Nicolai Remberg 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Armin Gigovic
64' VfB Stuttgart Anrie Chase 0.06 From Corner Missed Shot Maximilian Mittelstädt
77' Holstein Kiel Patrick Erras 0.02 From Corner Missed Shot Tymoteusz Puchacz
78' Holstein Kiel Marko Ivezic 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Steven Skrzybski
83' Holstein Kiel Armin Gigovic 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Goal
83' Holstein Kiel Phil Harres 0.38 Open Play Shot On Post
88' VfB Stuttgart Ermedin Demirovic 0.11 Open Play Missed Shot Maximilian Mittelstädt
91' Holstein Kiel Shuto Machino 0.05 Open Play Missed Shot Tymoteusz Puchacz

Players

VfB Stuttgart

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Angelo Stiller MC 90 0 0 1 2 0.11 0.63 0.99
Anrie Chase DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 1.14
Alexander Nübel GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.43
Maximilian Mittelstädt DL 90 0 0 0 5 0.00 0.37 0.74
Joshua Vagnoman DR 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.10 0.54
Jamie Leweling ML 88 0 0 4 0 0.45 0.00 0.65
Deniz Undav FW 71 1 0 2 1 0.63 0.10 0.89
Enzo Millot MC 71 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.05 0.47
Julian Chabot DC 67 0 1 1 1 0.02 0.04 0.74
Fabian Rieder MR 63 0 0 2 0 0.35 0.00 0.51
El Bilal Touré FW 63 1 1 4 2 0.18 0.63 0.85
Ermedin Demirovic Sub 27 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.11
Chris Führich Sub 27 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Atakan Karazor Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Anthony Rouault Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ramon Hendriks Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Holstein Kiel

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Patrick Erras DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.04 0.00 0.01
Armin Gigovic MC 90 1 0 1 1 0.03 0.11 0.21
Marko Ivezic DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.07
Timon Weiner GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.18
Timo Becker DMR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Jann-Fiete Arp FW 89 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.18
Max Geschwill DC 81 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Marvin Schulz MC 71 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.02 0.01
Finn Porath DML 71 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Magnus Knudsen MC 59 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Benedikt Pichler FW 47 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.06
Steven Skrzybski Sub 43 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.01
Nicolai Remberg Sub 31 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.17
Shuto Machino Sub 19 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Tymoteusz Puchacz Sub 19 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.08 0.05
Phil Harres Sub 9 0 0 1 0 0.38 0.00 0.41
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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