VfB Stuttgart v Viking FK — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 9 September 2026 · EUR-Champions League · 2627
Champions League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (372 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-1 9.2%
- 1-1 8.9%
- 2-2 6.7%
- 1-2 6.4%
- 2-0 6.4%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 68.2% | Under 2.5 | 31.8% |
| BTTS yes | 66.8% | BTTS no | 33.2% |
| VfB Stuttgart 1+ | 87.3% | VfB Stuttgart 2+ | 61.2% |
| Viking FK 1+ | 76.4% | Viking FK 2+ | 42.4% |
Expected goals 2.07 – 1.45. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- At home VfB Stuttgart average 2.67 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Why the model thinks this
The price
VfB Stuttgart have an estimated 51.5% win probability, against 27.3% for Viking FK and 21.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.07 for VfB Stuttgart and 1.45 for Viking FK.
Why VfB Stuttgart
At home VfB Stuttgart average 2.67 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 21.2%. Draws run at 16% in this competition.
Why Viking FK can win
Viking FK carry the stronger rating, 1762 Elo against 1658. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. They have had 10 days' rest to VfB Stuttgart's 5.
Key players
VfB Stuttgart's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Deniz Undav (0.64), Dzenan Pejcinovic (0.41), Ermedin Demirovic (0.40).
Availability
1 of VfB Stuttgart's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of VfB Stuttgart's last eleven are new to the club this window. No lineup on record for Viking FK, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
VfB Stuttgart: 52% possession, 16.2 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.49 xG a match from set pieces. Viking FK: 53% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 19.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. VfB Stuttgart's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
VfB Stuttgart are the model's most likely outcome at 51.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.2%. Confidence 63/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 2.07–1.45 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.