VfL Osnabruck v Hertha Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 13 September 2026 · GER-2. Bundesliga · 2627
GER-2. Bundesliga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.8%
- 1-2 9.3%
- 0-1 8.9%
- 0-2 7.5%
- 2-1 7.1%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 54.7% | Under 2.5 | 45.3% |
| BTTS yes | 57.5% | BTTS no | 42.5% |
| VfL Osnabruck 1+ | 71.0% | VfL Osnabruck 2+ | 35.1% |
| Hertha Berlin 1+ | 80.4% | Hertha Berlin 2+ | 48.4% |
Expected goals 1.24 – 1.63. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Hertha Berlin carry the stronger rating, 1556 Elo against 1477.
- Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 35/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- The model's measured edge in this competition is 0.0041 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
- VfL Osnabruck have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Hertha Berlin have an estimated 46.1% win probability, against 28.7% for VfL Osnabruck and 25.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.24 for VfL Osnabruck and 1.63 for Hertha Berlin.
Why VfL Osnabruck
Nothing in the data singles out VfL Osnabruck.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 25.2%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.
Why Hertha Berlin can win
Hertha Berlin carry the stronger rating, 1556 Elo against 1477. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for VfL Osnabruck, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Hertha Berlin, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
VfL Osnabruck: 40% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 19.7 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Hertha Berlin: 46% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 19.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. VfL Osnabruck's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Hertha Berlin are the model's most likely outcome at 46.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. Confidence 17/100, data quality 35/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.24–1.63 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.15–1.49 | 1-1 13% | 49% | 53% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.