Villarreal v Elche — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 8 March 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 13
On target
7 – 6
Shots in box
12 – 9
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 1.00
Goals − xG
-0.42 – -0.62
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Villarreal win
67.4%
Draw
19.1%
Elche win
13.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Villarreal have scored 20 from 19.3 expected and conceded 15 from 15.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWWDLLWDDL last 10
scored 20
from 19.3 xG
conceded 15
from 15.0 xG
Elche are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWLDLWDDLL last 10
scored 13
from 13.4 xG
conceded 19
from 15.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.36–0.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.77–1.03 | 2-1 9% | 73% | 60% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Villarreal 2.42 xGElche 1.62 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Villarreal attacking right
Elche attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | German Valera |
| 8' |
 Villarreal |
Alberto Moleiro | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tajon Buchanan |
| 15' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alvaro Rodríguez |
| 19' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rafa Mir |
| 19' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Rafa Mir |
| 24' |
Elche |
Buba Sangaré | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aleix Febas |
| 29' |
Villarreal |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sergi Cardona |
| 30' |
Villarreal |
Tajon Buchanan | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pape Alassane Gueye |
| 33' |
Villarreal |
Pape Alassane Gueye | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Santiago Mouriño |
| 35' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Georges Mikautadze |
| 37' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alberto Moleiro |
| 37' |
Villarreal |
Pape Alassane Gueye | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tajon Buchanan |
| 39' |
Villarreal |
Pape Alassane Gueye | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Alberto Moleiro |
| 40' |
Villarreal |
Santiago Mouriño | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Santiago Comesaña |
| 43' |
Villarreal |
Alberto Moleiro | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pape Alassane Gueye |
| 50' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marc Aguado |
| 53' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Santiago Comesaña |
| 54' |
Villarreal |
Rafa Marín | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alberto Moleiro |
| 55' |
Villarreal |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Villarreal |
Pape Alassane Gueye | 0.23 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alberto Moleiro |
| 66' |
Elche |
Aleix Febas | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 67' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Elche |
Victor Chust | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 70' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Victor Chust |
| 71' |
Elche |
David Affengruber | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Josan |
| 78' |
Elche |
André Silva | 0.52 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 81' |
Elche |
André Silva | 0.40 | From Corner | — | Goal | Martim Neto |
| 83' |
Villarreal |
Gerard Moreno | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nicolas Pepe |
| 83' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Daniel Parejo |
Players
Villarreal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georges Mikautadze FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.67 | 0.12 | 0.99 |
| Santiago Mouriño DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.06 | 0.89 |
| Nicolas Pepe FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.03 | 0.89 |
| Rafa Marín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Sergi Cardona DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.47 |
| Luiz Júnior GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Pape Alassane Gueye MC | 77 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.71 | 0.10 | 1.64 |
| Santiago Comesaña MC | 77 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 1.18 |
| Pau Navarro DC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Alberto Moleiro ML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.10 | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| Tajon Buchanan MR | 67 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.39 | 0.61 |
| Gerard Moreno Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alfon Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Renato Veiga Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Parejo Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Thomas Partey Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvaro Rodríguez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.01 | 0.49 |
| David Affengruber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Victor Chust DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Matías Dituro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Leo Petrot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| German Valera DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| Rafa Mir FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.35 | 0.52 |
| Buba Sangaré DMR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Aleix Febas MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.44 |
| Marc Aguado MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.15 |
| Grady Diangana MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Martim Neto Sub | 29 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Federico Redondo Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josan Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Gonzalo Villar Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| André Silva Sub | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 |