Villarreal v Mallorca — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 November 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 9
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 4
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.08
Goals − xG
-0.64 – -0.38
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Villarreal win
62.1%
Draw
21.6%
Mallorca win
16.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Villarreal have scored 20 from 19.3 expected and conceded 15 from 15.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWWDLLWDDL last 10
scored 20
from 19.3 xG
conceded 15
from 15.0 xG
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLWDLLW last 10
scored 14
from 14.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.90–0.85 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.41–0.84 | 2-0 11% | 63% | 52% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Villarreal 2.64 xGMallorca 1.38 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Villarreal attacking right
Mallorca attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Villarreal |
Gerard Moreno | 0.62 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ayoze Pérez |
| 7' |
 Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Pablo Torre |
| 22' |
Mallorca |
Mateo Joseph | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antonio Sánchez |
| 23' |
Mallorca |
Jan Virgili | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antonio Sánchez |
| 24' |
Villarreal |
Santiago Comesaña | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alberto Moleiro |
| 29' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ayoze Pérez |
| 33' |
Mallorca |
Pablo Torre | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jan Virgili |
| 36' |
Mallorca |
Johan Mojica | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Villarreal |
Ayoze Pérez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thomas Partey |
| 41' |
Villarreal |
Alberto Moleiro | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Gerard Moreno |
| 42' |
Villarreal |
Gerard Moreno | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Mallorca |
Antonio Sánchez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jan Virgili |
| 46' |
Villarreal |
Santiago Comesaña | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ayoze Pérez |
| 49' |
Villarreal |
Ayoze Pérez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thomas Partey |
| 49' |
Villarreal |
Santiago Comesaña | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Mallorca |
Pablo Torre | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mateo Joseph |
| 59' |
Villarreal |
Alberto Moleiro | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gerard Moreno |
| 71' |
Villarreal |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Villarreal |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tani Oluwaseyi |
| 78' |
Villarreal |
Pape Alassane Gueye | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Santiago Comesaña |
| 82' |
Villarreal |
Tani Oluwaseyi | 0.66 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 86' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Takuma Asano |
| 96' |
Mallorca |
Takuma Asano | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Mallorca
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Mojica DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Samú Costa DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Raíllo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Lucas Bergström GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Pablo Maffeo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Martin Valjent DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Mateo Joseph FW | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.03 | 0.75 |
| Antonio Sánchez AMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.35 | 0.75 |
| Omar Mascarell DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Jan Virgili AML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| Pablo Torre AMC | 71 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.05 | 0.43 |
| Sergi Darder Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vedat Muriqi Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Takuma Asano Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| Javi Llabrés Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manuel Morlanes Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Villarreal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Comesaña MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.03 | 0.97 |
| Nicolas Pepe MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Alfonso DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Pau Navarro DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Luiz Júnior GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Renato Veiga DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Rafa Marín DC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Alberto Moleiro ML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.05 | 0.49 |
| Gerard Moreno FW | 65 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.39 | 1.07 |
| Ayoze Pérez FW | 65 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.74 | 0.96 |
| Thomas Partey MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Tani Oluwaseyi Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.52 | 1.21 |
| Georges Mikautadze Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Pape Alassane Gueye Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Manor Solomon Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tajon Buchanan Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |