Villarreal v Rayo Vallecano — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 1 November 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 13
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 7
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.02
Goals − xG
+1.05 – -1.09
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Villarreal win
62.1%
Draw
21.3%
Rayo Vallecano win
16.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Villarreal have scored 20 from 19.3 expected and conceded 15 from 15.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWWDLLWDDL last 10
scored 20
from 19.3 xG
conceded 15
from 15.0 xG
Rayo Vallecano are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWDDWWLDL last 10
scored 16
from 16.6 xG
conceded 14
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.94–0.89 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.09–1.10 | 2-1 10% | 62% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Villarreal 2.95 xGRayo Vallecano 1.09 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Villarreal attacking right
Rayo Vallecano attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Pep Chavarría | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Florian Lejeune |
| 3' |
 Villarreal |
Alberto Moleiro | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 3' |
Villarreal |
Santiago Comesaña | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 11' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Alemão | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jorge De Frutos |
| 13' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Lejeune |
| 15' |
Villarreal |
Gerard Moreno | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolas Pepe |
| 18' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alemão |
| 18' |
Villarreal |
Alfonso | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Georges Mikautadze |
| 20' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Thomas Partey |
| 21' |
Villarreal |
Gerard Moreno | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Georges Mikautadze |
| 26' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 32' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gerard Moreno |
| 34' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jorge De Frutos |
| 48' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jorge De Frutos |
| 52' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.97 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tani Oluwaseyi |
| 52' |
Villarreal |
Tani Oluwaseyi | 0.24 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Santiago Comesaña |
| 53' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Nobel Mendy | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Díaz |
| 55' |
Villarreal |
Alberto Moleiro | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alfonso |
| 57' |
Villarreal |
Santiago Comesaña | 0.51 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Alberto Moleiro |
| 63' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Florian Lejeune |
| 64' |
Villarreal |
Ayoze Pérez | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 68' |
Villarreal |
Santiago Comesaña | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolas Pepe |
| 74' |
Villarreal |
Tajon Buchanan | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alfonso |
| 82' |
Villarreal |
Ilias Akhomach | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Santiago Mouriño |
| 85' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Óscar Trejo | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 88' |
Villarreal |
Daniel Parejo | 0.10 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 91' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Andrei Ratiu | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pep Chavarría |
| 91' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Óscar Valentín | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Ratiu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.59 | 0.12 | 0.71 |
| Nobel Mendy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Pep Chavarría DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.59 | 0.83 |
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Augusto Batalla GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Pathé Ciss DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Alemão FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Pedro Díaz DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| Isi Palazón AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jorge De Frutos AMR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| Álvaro García AML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Óscar Valentín Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Fran Pérez Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Sergio Camello Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Óscar Trejo Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Iván Balliu Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Villarreal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfonso DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.34 |
| Santiago Mouriño DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1.07 |
| Renato Veiga DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Luiz Júnior GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Juan Foyth DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Thomas Partey MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.33 |
| Nicolas Pepe MR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1.05 | 0.21 | 1.77 |
| Santiago Comesaña MC | 75 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.24 | 0.88 |
| Gerard Moreno FW | 65 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 1.00 |
| Alberto Moleiro ML | 64 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.51 | 0.68 |
| Georges Mikautadze FW | 47 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| Tani Oluwaseyi Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.97 | 1.21 |
| Tajon Buchanan Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ayoze Pérez Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Daniel Parejo Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ilias Akhomach Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |