Waasland-Beveren v Lommel SK — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 9 October 2026 · BEL-Pro League · 2627
BEL-Pro League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 0-1 14.2%
- 1-1 12.2%
- 0-2 11.5%
- 0-0 9.8%
- 1-2 9.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 42.3% | Under 2.5 | 57.7% |
| BTTS yes | 44.2% | BTTS no | 55.8% |
| Waasland-Beveren 1+ | 55.3% | Waasland-Beveren 2+ | 19.3% |
| Lommel SK 1+ | 79.2% | Lommel SK 2+ | 46.5% |
Expected goals 0.81 – 1.57. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Lommel SK carry the stronger rating, 1521 Elo against 1464.
Risk factors
- The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.84).
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Waasland-Beveren have only 4 matches on record.
- Lommel SK have only 4 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Lommel SK have an estimated 55.0% win probability, against 26.2% for the draw and 18.8% for Waasland-Beveren. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.81 for Waasland-Beveren and 1.57 for Lommel SK.
Why Waasland-Beveren
Nothing in the data singles out Waasland-Beveren.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 26.2%. A combined 2.37 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 26% in this competition.
Why Lommel SK can win
Lommel SK carry the stronger rating, 1521 Elo against 1464.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Waasland-Beveren, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Lommel SK, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Waasland-Beveren: 51% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 16.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Lommel SK: 42% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 22.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Lommel SK are the model's most likely outcome at 55.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 14.2%. Confidence 56/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 0.44–1.84 | 0-1 19% | 40% | 30% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.