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Walsall v Rochdale — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · ENG-League Two · 2627

ENG-League Two results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

dc-xg No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Walsall win
71.2%
Draw
16.7%
Rochdale win
12.1%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.96–0.60 1-0 17% 47% 37%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall to win 71.1% 73.8% 42.6% 1.73× 1.36
Draw 17.3% 19.3% 26.2% 0.74× 5.17
Rochdale to win 11.6% 13.3% 31.3% 0.42× 7.52
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall & not both score 40.4% 40.0% 23.4% 1.71× 2.50
Walsall & both teams score 30.7% 29.7% 19.4% 1.53× 3.37
Draw & both teams score 12.9% 13.2% 19.4% 0.68× 7.55
Rochdale & both teams score 5.9% 8.4% 14.4% 0.58× 11.95
Rochdale & not both score 5.7% 8.4% 17.1% 0.49× 11.95
Draw & not both score 4.4% 4.9% 6.9% 0.70× 20.48
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall & over 1.5 60.7% 54.7% 30.5% 1.79× 1.83
Walsall & over 2.5 48.7% 45.3% 23.9% 1.89× 2.21
Walsall & under 3.5 41.0% 40.3% 29.9% 1.35× 2.48
Walsall & over 3.5 30.1% 30.9% 12.9% 2.39× 3.24
Walsall & under 2.5 22.4% 21.6% 18.9% 1.14× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 12.9% 12.9% 19.4% 0.66× 7.78
Draw & under 2.5 12.6% 12.9% 18.9% 0.68× 7.78
Draw & under 3.5 12.6% 12.9% 18.9% 0.68× 7.78
Walsall & under 1.5 10.5% 12.9% 12.3% 1.05× 7.78
Rochdale & under 3.5 8.9% 7.9% 23.9% 0.33× 12.69
Rochdale & over 1.5 7.8% 7.9% 23.1% 0.34× 12.69
Rochdale & over 2.5 6.4% 7.9% 17.4% 0.45× 12.69
Rochdale & under 2.5 5.2% 7.9% 14.1% 0.56× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 4.7% 4.8% 7.4% 0.64× 20.93
Draw & over 3.5 4.7% 4.8% 7.4% 0.64× 20.93
Draw & under 1.5 4.4% 4.8% 6.9% 0.69× 20.93
Rochdale & under 1.5 3.7% 4.8% 8.4% 0.57× 20.93
Rochdale & over 3.5 2.7% 4.8% 7.6% 0.63× 20.94
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall (1UP) 80.5% 86.7% 1.15
Rochdale (1UP) 28.2% 27.0% 3.71
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall (2UP) 71.1% 80.2% 1.25
Rochdale (2UP) 11.6% 13.3% 7.51
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall to win 2nd half 57.4% 60.2% 1.66
2nd half drawn 28.9% 26.3% 3.80
Rochdale to win 2nd half 13.7% 12.1% 8.23
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall (+0.5) 88.4% 88.5% 68.7% 1.29× 1.13
Rochdale (+2.5) 73.4% 73.7% 93.4% 0.79× 1.36
Walsall (-0.5) 71.1% 73.7% 42.6% 1.73× 1.36
Rochdale (+1.5) 52.3% 52.3% 81.3% 0.64× 1.91
Walsall (-1.5) 47.7% 47.7% 18.7% 2.54× 2.10
Rochdale (+0.5) 28.9% 26.3% 57.4% 0.46× 3.80
Walsall (-2.5) 26.6% 26.3% 6.6% 3.97× 3.80
Rochdale (-0.5) 11.6% 11.5% 31.3% 0.37× 8.70
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rochdale to concede 89.9% 86.5% 76.1% 1.14× 1.16
Rochdale clean sheet 10.1% 13.5% 23.9% 0.56× 7.43
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rochdale to concede in 1st half 62.8% 64.8% 1.54
Rochdale clean sheet in 1st half 37.2% 35.2% 2.84
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rochdale under 3.5 goals 99.1% 97.6% 97.3% 1.00× 1.03
Rochdale under 2.5 goals 95.2% 97.6% 88.5% 1.10× 1.03
Rochdale under 1.5 goals 80.8% 81.5% 65.1% 1.25× 1.23
Rochdale over 0.5 goals 55.2% 59.6% 69.8% 0.85× 1.68
Rochdale under 0.5 goals 44.8% 40.4% 30.2% 1.34× 2.48
Rochdale over 1.5 goals 19.2% 18.5% 34.9% 0.53× 5.39
Rochdale over 2.5 goals 4.8% 2.4% 11.5% 0.21× 40.94
Rochdale over 3.5 goals 0.9% 2.4% 2.7% 0.88× 41.15
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rochdale under 1.5 in 1st half 95.8% 95.6% 1.05
Rochdale under 0.5 in 1st half 72.6% 69.4% 1.44
Rochdale over 0.5 in 1st half 27.4% 30.6% 3.27
Rochdale over 1.5 in 1st half 4.2% 4.4% 22.80
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall (away no bet) 80.4% 82.6% 62.0% 1.33× 1.21
Draw (away no bet) 19.6% 17.4% 38.0% 0.46× 5.74
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rochdale even goals 60.1% 59.0% 55.9% 1.06× 1.69
Rochdale odd goals 39.9% 41.0% 44.1% 0.93× 2.44
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 79.9% 82.3% 1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals 20.1% 17.7% 5.65
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 70.9% 66.8% 1.50
Both halves under 1.5 goals 29.1% 33.2% 3.01
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 67.1% 62.2% 1.61
Walsall to score 2+ in a row 60.4% 59.4% 1.68
Either team to score 3+ in a row 33.5% 28.6% 3.50
Walsall to score 3+ in a row 31.8% 28.5% 3.51
Rochdale to score 2+ in a row 11.9% 12.0% 8.35
Rochdale to score 3+ in a row 2.0% 2.6% 38.89
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-0 11.9% 11.5% 6.8% 1.69× 8.73
1-0 10.5% 11.4% 12.3% 0.93× 8.73
3-0 9.1% 7.4% 2.7% 2.71× 13.46
Any other score 8.4% 7.4% 2.1% 3.54× 13.46
2-1 9.5% 7.4% 8.6% 0.87× 13.46
3-1 7.3% 7.4% 5.0% 1.48× 13.46
1-1 8.2% 7.4% 12.1% 0.61× 13.46
4-0 5.2% 7.4% 1.5% 5.11× 13.46
2-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 5.28× 58.59
3-2 2.9% 1.7% 3.2% 0.53× 58.58
3-3 0.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.32× 58.59
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 10.56× 58.59
4-1 4.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.32× 58.57
4-2 1.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.64× 58.58
4-3 0.5% 1.7% 0.5% 3.52× 58.59
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 10.56× 58.59
0-0 4.4% 1.7% 6.9% 0.25× 58.57
0-1 3.7% 1.7% 8.4% 0.20× 58.57
0-2 1.5% 1.7% 5.8% 0.29× 58.58
0-3 0.4% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.59
0-4 0.1% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.59
1-2 3.3% 1.7% 7.8% 0.22× 58.57
1-3 0.9% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.59
1-4 0.2% 1.7% 1.5% 1.17× 58.59
2-2 3.8% 1.7% 6.3% 0.27× 58.57
2-3 1.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.06× 58.59
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall leading at HT (DNB) 81.4% 86.2% 1.16
Rochdale leading at HT (DNB) 18.6% 13.8% 7.23
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall or draw (1X) 88.4% 86.7% 68.7% 1.26× 1.15
Walsall or Rochdale (12) 82.7% 80.7% 73.8% 1.09× 1.24
Rochdale or draw (X2) 28.9% 26.2% 57.4% 0.46× 3.82
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall or draw at HT 88.1% 88.3% 1.13
Walsall or Rochdale at HT 63.7% 62.2% 1.61
Rochdale or draw at HT 48.1% 52.6% 1.90
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall or draw (1UP) 88.4% 91.9% 1.09
Rochdale or draw (1UP) 28.9% 32.1% 3.12
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall or draw in 2nd half 86.3% 87.9% 1.14
Walsall or Rochdale in 2nd half 71.1% 73.7% 1.36
Rochdale or draw in 2nd half 42.6% 39.8% 2.51
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 54.8% 50.3% 1.99
Neither half drawn 45.2% 49.7% 2.01
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall (DNB) 86.0% 87.4% 57.6% 1.52× 1.14
Rochdale (DNB) 14.0% 12.6% 42.4% 0.30× 7.93
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall to score first 70.9% 74.6% 1.34
Rochdale to score first 24.7% 23.3% 4.29
No goal scored 4.4% 4.4% 22.87
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 50.5% 51.4% 47.2% 1.09× 1.94
Both teams to score 49.5% 48.6% 52.8% 0.92× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 41.3% 41.5% 40.9% 1.02× 2.41
Not both score & under 2.5 32.0% 34.4% 39.6% 0.87× 2.91
Not both score & over 2.5 18.5% 21.8% 7.8% 2.81× 4.59
Both score & under 2.5 8.2% 8.4% 12.1% 0.69× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 87.2% 85.7% 86.3% 0.99× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 12.8% 14.3% 13.7% 1.04× 6.98
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 72.2% 74.5% 1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half 27.8% 25.5% 3.92
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 59.8% 60.0% 1.67
Both score 2nd half only 23.0% 21.1% 4.73
Both score 1st half only 12.4% 10.5% 9.54
Both score in both halves 4.8% 5.0% 19.93
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 82.8% 82.9% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 17.2% 17.1% 5.84
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 60.7% 58.9% 1.70
A half without a goal 39.3% 41.1% 2.43
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 43.9% 42.1% 45.2% 0.93× 2.37
4-6 goals 33.6% 30.7% 26.3% 1.17× 3.26
0-1 goals 18.6% 20.2% 27.3% 0.74× 4.94
7+ goals 3.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.25× 55.03
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rochdale to score exactly 0 44.8% 37.0% 30.2% 1.23× 2.70
Rochdale to score exactly 1 36.0% 36.0% 35.1% 1.03× 2.78
Rochdale to score exactly 2 14.4% 12.8% 23.6% 0.54× 7.79
Rochdale to score 3+ 4.8% 4.5% 11.5% 0.39× 22.15
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall to score 3+ 40.3% 35.0% 16.6% 2.10× 2.86
Walsall to score exactly 2 26.5% 26.5% 23.1% 1.15× 3.77
Walsall to score exactly 1 23.1% 23.3% 36.7% 0.63× 4.30
Walsall to score exactly 0 10.1% 14.3% 23.9% 0.60× 6.98
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall leading at HT 51.9% 47.4% 2.11
Draw at HT 36.3% 37.8% 2.65
Rochdale leading at HT 11.9% 11.7% 8.55
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall -1: 1 47.7% 46.9% 2.13
Walsall -1: 2 28.9% 26.6% 3.77
Walsall -1: X 23.4% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall (0:1) 47.7% 45.9% 18.7% 2.45× 2.18
Rochdale (0:1) 28.9% 27.0% 57.4% 0.47× 3.70
Draw (0:1) 23.4% 24.3% 24.1% 1.01× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rochdale (0:2) 52.3% 58.3% 81.3% 0.72× 1.72
Walsall (0:2) 26.6% 23.8% 6.6% 3.59× 4.20
Draw (0:2) 21.1% 20.3% 12.3% 1.65× 4.93
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rochdale (0:3) 73.4% 77.9% 93.4% 0.83× 1.28
Draw (0:3) 14.2% 10.1% 4.0% 2.49× 9.94
Walsall (0:3) 12.4% 10.0% 2.7% 3.65× 9.97
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rochdale (0:4) 87.6% 91.9% 97.3% 0.95× 1.09
Draw (0:4) 7.5% 4.6% 1.9% 2.39× 21.60
Walsall (0:4) 4.9% 1.2% 1.0% 1.24× 82.90
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall (1:0) 88.4% 86.4% 68.7% 1.26× 1.16
Draw (1:0) 8.3% 6.9% 17.4% 0.40× 14.47
Rochdale (1:0) 3.3% 3.2% 14.1% 0.23× 31.55
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall (2:0) 96.7% 96.9% 85.9% 1.13× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 2.6% 2.3% 9.4% 0.24× 44.25
Rochdale (2:0) 0.7% 2.3% 4.8% 0.47× 44.37
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.9% 48.2% 2.07
1st half highest scoring 28.2% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 23.0% 24.2% 4.13
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall to concede 55.2% 60.9% 69.8% 0.87× 1.64
Walsall clean sheet 44.8% 39.1% 30.2% 1.29× 2.56
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall clean sheet in 1st half 72.6% 68.6% 1.46
Walsall to concede in 1st half 27.4% 31.4% 3.19
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall over 0.5 goals 89.9% 87.3% 76.1% 1.15× 1.15
Walsall under 3.5 goals 80.0% 82.1% 95.0% 0.86× 1.22
Walsall over 1.5 goals 66.8% 67.9% 39.6% 1.72× 1.47
Walsall under 2.5 goals 59.7% 58.8% 83.4% 0.71× 1.70
Walsall over 2.5 goals 40.3% 41.2% 16.6% 2.47× 2.43
Walsall under 1.5 goals 33.2% 32.1% 60.4% 0.53× 3.12
Walsall over 3.5 goals 20.0% 17.9% 5.0% 3.57× 5.60
Walsall under 0.5 goals 10.1% 12.8% 23.9% 0.53× 7.84
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall under 1.5 in 1st half 74.0% 79.5% 1.26
Walsall over 0.5 in 1st half 62.8% 64.6% 1.55
Walsall under 0.5 in 1st half 37.2% 35.4% 2.83
Walsall over 1.5 in 1st half 26.0% 20.5% 4.89
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 59.9% 56.7% 45.5% 1.25× 1.76
Rochdale (home no bet) 40.1% 43.3% 54.5% 0.79× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall even goals 50.5% 50.6% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
Walsall odd goals 49.5% 49.4% 49.6% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 27.0% 28.6% 3.49
HT 1-0 26.7% 28.6% 3.49
HT 2-0 13.2% 11.1% 9.04
HT 0-1 8.7% 7.1% 14.08
HT 1-1 8.5% 7.1% 14.08
Any other HT score 8.2% 7.1% 14.09
HT 2-1 4.2% 2.2% 44.60
HT 0-2 1.4% 2.2% 44.83
HT 1-2 1.4% 2.2% 44.83
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.2% 44.89
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall at HT / Walsall at FT 47.3% 44.7% 2.24
Draw at HT / Walsall at FT 20.9% 22.1% 4.53
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 10.3% 12.6% 7.91
Rochdale at HT / Rochdale at FT 5.6% 6.0% 16.63
Draw at HT / Rochdale at FT 5.0% 6.0% 16.64
Walsall at HT / Draw at FT 3.7% 3.4% 29.14
Rochdale at HT / Draw at FT 3.2% 3.4% 29.15
Rochdale at HT / Walsall at FT 3.0% 3.4% 29.16
Walsall at HT / Rochdale at FT 0.9% 3.4% 29.25
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall to score last 70.8% 72.1% 1.39
Rochdale to score last 24.8% 26.8% 3.73
No goal scored 4.4% 4.4% 22.87
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.6% 95.6% 1.05
Walsall to lead by 1 at any time 80.5% 86.8% 1.15
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 60.0% 55.1% 1.82
Walsall to lead by 2 at any time 53.7% 50.6% 1.98
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 30.9% 29.4% 3.40
Walsall to lead by 3 at any time 29.6% 25.3% 3.96
Rochdale to lead by 1 at any time 28.2% 25.2% 3.97
Rochdale to lead by 2 at any time 6.6% 6.5% 15.37
Rochdale to lead by 3 at any time 1.3% 1.5% 64.71
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.2% 87.4% 89.7% 0.97× 1.14
2-6 goals 77.6% 78.6% 71.4% 1.10× 1.27
1-4 goals 75.5% 78.6% 82.1% 0.96× 1.27
2-5 goals 72.0% 72.4% 69.3% 1.04× 1.38
2-4 goals 61.3% 63.5% 61.7% 1.03× 1.58
1-3 goals 58.1% 59.2% 65.6% 0.90× 1.69
3-6 goals 56.0% 59.2% 47.2% 1.26× 1.69
3-5 goals 50.5% 53.1% 45.1% 1.18× 1.88
2-3 goals 43.9% 43.6% 45.2% 0.96× 2.29
3-4 goals 39.7% 39.2% 37.5% 1.05× 2.55
1-2 goals 35.8% 39.2% 44.8% 0.88× 2.55
4-6 goals 33.6% 35.4% 26.3% 1.34× 2.83
4-5 goals 28.1% 30.2% 24.2% 1.25× 3.31
5-6 goals 16.3% 18.6% 9.9% 1.89× 5.38
7+ goals 3.8% 2.5% 1.5% 1.75× 39.40
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall never behind 67.4% 70.3% 1.42
Rochdale never behind 15.1% 18.2% 5.50
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.9% 50.8% 50.4% 1.01× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.1% 49.2% 49.6% 0.99× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.6% 51.5% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 46.4% 48.5% 2.06
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.3% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.7% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.6% 95.5% 93.1% 1.03× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 90.6% 92.3% 96.4% 0.96× 1.08
Over 1.5 goals 81.4% 82.4% 72.7% 1.13× 1.21
Under 4.5 goals 79.9% 77.4% 88.9% 0.87× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 62.5% 61.8% 72.4% 0.85× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 59.8% 58.8% 48.5% 1.21× 1.70
Under 2.5 goals 40.2% 41.2% 51.5% 0.80× 2.43
Over 3.5 goals 37.5% 38.2% 27.6% 1.38× 2.62
Over 4.5 goals 20.1% 22.6% 11.1% 2.03× 4.42
Under 1.5 goals 18.6% 17.6% 27.3% 0.65× 5.67
Over 5.5 goals 9.4% 7.7% 3.6% 2.17× 12.94
Under 0.5 goals 4.4% 4.5% 6.9% 0.65× 22.18
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 95.9% 97.2% 98.5% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 89.5% 86.7% 96.2% 0.90× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 76.3% 75.9% 64.0% 1.19× 1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 75.7% 75.9% 86.7% 0.88× 1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 51.7% 51.8% 65.1% 0.80× 1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 48.3% 48.2% 34.9% 1.38× 2.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 24.3% 24.1% 13.3% 1.80× 4.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 23.7% 24.1% 36.0% 0.67× 4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 10.5% 13.3% 3.8% 3.45× 7.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 4.1% 2.8% 1.5% 1.85× 36.32
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 85.5% 89.2% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 73.0% 71.1% 1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half 62.4% 63.7% 1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half 37.6% 36.3% 2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half 27.0% 28.9% 3.46
Over 2.5 in 1st half 14.5% 10.8% 9.29
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 83.3% 82.9% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 73.3% 77.9% 1.28
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 53.4% 53.1% 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 46.6% 46.9% 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 26.7% 22.1% 4.53
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 16.7% 17.1% 5.86
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rochdale not to score in both halves 89.5% 86.1% 1.16
Walsall not to score in both halves 54.2% 56.9% 1.76
Walsall to score in both halves 45.8% 43.1% 2.32
Rochdale to score in both halves 10.5% 13.9% 7.17
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 49.5% 50.4% 52.8% 0.95× 1.98
Only Walsall scores 40.4% 46.6% 23.4% 1.99× 2.15
Only Rochdale scores 5.7% 7.2% 17.1% 0.42× 13.96
Neither team scores 4.4% 4.6% 6.9% 0.66× 21.70
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 21.0% 1.08× 4.42
Exactly 2 goals 21.6% 22.6% 24.4% 0.93× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 17.3% 17.5% 16.6% 1.05× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 14.2% 12.1% 20.5% 0.59× 8.29
Exactly 5 goals 10.7% 12.1% 7.8% 1.56× 8.29
6 or more goals 9.4% 7.6% 3.6% 2.14× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 4.4% 4.4% 6.9% 0.64× 22.60
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 53.4% 51.0% 1.96
1 goal in 2nd half 30.0% 29.7% 3.37
No goals in 2nd half 16.7% 16.9% 5.93
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rochdale not to win both halves 98.4% 97.2% 1.03
Walsall not to win both halves 70.2% 72.3% 1.38
Walsall to win both halves 29.8% 27.7% 3.62
Rochdale to win both halves 1.6% 2.8% 36.09
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall to win either half 79.6% 80.0% 1.25
Rochdale to win neither half 76.1% 79.6% 1.26
Rochdale to win either half 23.9% 20.4% 4.91
Walsall to win neither half 20.5% 20.0% 5.00
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rochdale not to win to nil 94.3% 92.1% 82.9% 1.11× 1.09
Walsall not to win to nil 59.6% 59.0% 76.6% 0.77× 1.70
Walsall to win to nil 40.4% 41.0% 23.4% 1.75× 2.44
Rochdale to win to nil 5.7% 7.9% 17.1% 0.46× 12.60
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Walsall by 3+ 26.6% 27.8% 6.6% 4.20× 3.59
Walsall by 1 23.4% 24.1% 24.1% 1.00× 4.14
Walsall by 2 21.1% 24.1% 12.3% 1.97× 4.14
Draw 17.3% 16.9% 26.2% 0.65× 5.90
Rochdale by 1 8.3% 7.2% 17.4% 0.42× 13.80
Rochdale by 2 2.6% 2.7% 9.4% 0.29× 36.99
Rochdale by 3+ 0.7% 2.7% 4.8% 0.56× 37.05
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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