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Werder Bremen v Holstein Kiel — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 9 November 2024 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

2–1
2.26 – 0.88 xG
Shots
16 – 12
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
12 – 9
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.52
Goals − xG
-0.26 – +0.10
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.31.92.50'15'30'45'60'75'90'Jens Stage 35' — goalPhil Harres 47' — goalOliver Burke 88' — goal
Werder Bremen 2.26 xGHolstein Kiel 0.90 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Romano Schmid 0' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Jens Stage 4' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Senne Lynen 9' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Marvin Ducksch 11' — Saved Shot (0.61 xG, Open Play)Marvin Ducksch 16' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Justin Njinmah 26' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Justin Njinmah 28' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Nicolai Remberg 32' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, From Corner)Nicolai Remberg 32' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, From Corner)Jens Stage 35' — Goal (0.02 xG, Open Play)Max Geschwill 45' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, From Corner)Max Geschwill 45' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Phil Harres 47' — Goal (0.02 xG, Open Play)Steven Skrzybski 50' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Justin Njinmah 52' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Tymoteusz Puchacz 53' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Marvin Ducksch 63' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Finn Porath 65' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Phil Harres 68' — Saved Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Marko Ivezic 72' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Leonardo Bittencourt 79' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Romano Schmid 81' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Jann-Fiete Arp 86' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Set Piece)Max Geschwill 86' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Oliver Burke 88' — Goal (0.43 xG, Open Play)Leonardo Bittencourt 92' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Romano Schmid 92' — Shot On Post (0.41 xG, Open Play)Leonardo Bittencourt 93' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)
Werder Bremen attacking right Holstein Kiel attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
0' Werder Bremen Romano Schmid 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Marvin Ducksch
4' Werder Bremen Jens Stage 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Romano Schmid
9' Werder Bremen Senne Lynen 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
11' Werder Bremen Marvin Ducksch 0.61 Open Play Saved Shot Derrick Köhn
16' Werder Bremen Marvin Ducksch 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Senne Lynen
26' Werder Bremen Justin Njinmah 0.06 Open Play Blocked Shot Felix Agu
28' Werder Bremen Justin Njinmah 0.07 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot
32' Holstein Kiel Nicolai Remberg 0.12 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Phil Harres
32' Holstein Kiel Nicolai Remberg 0.11 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Marko Ivezic
35' Werder Bremen Jens Stage 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Goal
45' Holstein Kiel Max Geschwill 0.10 From Corner Missed Shot Tymoteusz Puchacz
45' Holstein Kiel Max Geschwill 0.03 From Corner Missed Shot Phil Harres
47' Holstein Kiel Phil Harres 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Goal Max Geschwill
50' Holstein Kiel Steven Skrzybski 0.04 Set Piece Right Foot Saved Shot Max Geschwill
52' Werder Bremen Justin Njinmah 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Felix Agu
53' Holstein Kiel Tymoteusz Puchacz 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Nicolai Remberg
63' Werder Bremen Marvin Ducksch 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
65' Holstein Kiel Finn Porath 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Steven Skrzybski
68' Holstein Kiel Phil Harres 0.30 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Steven Skrzybski
72' Holstein Kiel Marko Ivezic 0.02 Open Play Blocked Shot Patrick Erras
79' Werder Bremen Leonardo Bittencourt 0.10 Open Play Missed Shot Keke Maximilian Topp
81' Werder Bremen Romano Schmid 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Felix Agu
86' Holstein Kiel Jann-Fiete Arp 0.08 Set Piece Left Foot Saved Shot
86' Holstein Kiel Max Geschwill 0.05 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Lewis Holtby
88' Werder Bremen Oliver Burke 0.43 Open Play Goal Keke Maximilian Topp
92' Werder Bremen Leonardo Bittencourt 0.04 Direct Freekick Left Foot Missed Shot
92' Werder Bremen Romano Schmid 0.41 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Keke Maximilian Topp
93' Werder Bremen Leonardo Bittencourt 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Oliver Burke

Players

Werder Bremen

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Romano Schmid AMC 90 0 0 3 1 0.60 0.12 1.20
Senne Lynen MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.05 0.23
Milos Veljkovic DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Michael Zetterer GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Felix Agu DMR 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.17 0.15
Derrick Köhn DML 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.61 0.92
Anthony Jung DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.21
Marvin Ducksch FW 81 0 0 3 1 0.73 0.10 0.83
Marco Friedl DC 81 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Justin Njinmah AMC 69 0 0 3 0 0.15 0.00 0.06
Jens Stage MC 49 1 0 2 0 0.14 0.00 0.19
Leonardo Bittencourt Sub 41 0 0 3 0 0.20 0.00 0.25
Keke Maximilian Topp Sub 21 0 1 0 3 0.00 0.94 1.00
Oliver Burke Sub 9 1 0 1 1 0.43 0.06 0.59
Niklas Stark Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Olivier Deman Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Holstein Kiel

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Nicolai Remberg MC 90 0 0 2 1 0.23 0.02 0.04
Max Geschwill DC 90 0 1 3 2 0.17 0.06 0.32
Marko Ivezic DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.11 0.02
Magnus Knudsen MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Timon Weiner GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Timo Becker DMR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Patrick Erras DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Phil Harres FW 88 1 0 2 2 0.32 0.15 0.32
Tymoteusz Puchacz DML 76 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.10 0.04
Steven Skrzybski FW 75 0 0 1 2 0.04 0.31 0.31
Armin Gigovic MC 65 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Finn Porath Sub 25 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01
Lewis Holtby Sub 15 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.00
Shuto Machino Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Jann-Fiete Arp Sub 2 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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