West Ham United v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 August 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 15
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 10
xG per shot
0.24 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.82 – 0.59
Goals − xG
-2.35 – -0.68
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.West Ham United win
39.4%
Draw
22.5%
Aston Villa win
38.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.74–1.71 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 67% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
West Ham United 3.35 xGAston Villa 2.68 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
West Ham United attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 3' |
 Aston Villa |
Amadou Onana | 0.52 | From Corner | — | Goal | Youri Tielemans |
| 9' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 13' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leon Bailey |
| 16' |
West Ham United |
Michail Antonio | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tomas Soucek |
| 20' |
Aston Villa |
Leon Bailey | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 21' |
Aston Villa |
Leon Bailey | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Matthew Cash |
| 31' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 40' |
West Ham United |
Emerson | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 41' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Tomas Soucek |
| 44' |
Aston Villa |
Leon Bailey | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ezri Konsa Ngoyo |
| 47' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohammed Kudus |
| 48' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
West Ham United |
Guido Rodríguez | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 56' |
Aston Villa |
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Leon Bailey |
| 60' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Max Kilman |
| 63' |
West Ham United |
Michail Antonio | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 65' |
Aston Villa |
Jhon Durán | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 75' |
West Ham United |
Konstantinos Mavropanos | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 78' |
Aston Villa |
Jhon Durán | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jacob Ramsey |
| 83' |
Aston Villa |
Jacob Ramsey | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 85' |
West Ham United |
Danny Ings | 0.40 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 94' |
Aston Villa |
Jaden Philogene-Bidace | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ian Maatsen |
| 96' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.58 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mohammed Kudus |
| 96' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.92 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Soucek MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1.82 | 0.09 | 1.86 |
| Mohammed Kudus ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.68 | 0.85 |
| Emerson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Alphonse Areola GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.84 |
| Guido Rodríguez DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.31 |
| Lucas Paquetá MC | 77 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.08 | 0.25 |
| Michail Antonio FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Jarrod Bowen MR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| Niclas Füllkrug Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Crysencio Summerville Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.99 |
| James Ward-Prowse Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Danny Ings Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Jean-Clair Todibo Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amadou Onana DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Morgan Rogers AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.48 |
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.75 | 1.34 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 1.10 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pau Torres DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.07 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| Leon Bailey AMR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.74 |
| John McGinn AML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Jhon Durán Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Jacob Ramsey Sub | 25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.40 | 0.97 |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Ian Maatsen Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.51 |
| Kosta Nedeljkovic Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |