West Ham United v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 April 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 11
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 7
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.49 – 0.94
Goals − xG
+1.09 – +0.02
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.West Ham United win
19.5%
Draw
24.1%
Bournemouth win
56.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.03–1.89 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.44–1.98 | 1-1 9% | 66% | 66% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
West Ham United 0.91 xGBournemouth 1.98 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
West Ham United attacking right
Bournemouth attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 4' |
 West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mohammed Kudus |
| 23' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mohammed Kudus |
| 37' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adam Smith |
| 37' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.72 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 42' |
Bournemouth |
Illia Zabarnyi | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Lewis Cook |
| 44' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 60' |
West Ham United |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.38 | From Corner | — | Goal | James Ward-Prowse |
| 63' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Niclas Füllkrug |
| 64' |
West Ham United |
Carlos Soler | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 67' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Goal | Mohammed Kudus |
| 73' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.73 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Dean Huijsen |
| 81' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Evanilson |
| 85' |
West Ham United |
Luis Guilherme | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 88' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | James Ward-Prowse |
| 91' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | David Brooks |
| 92' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | James Hill |
| 93' |
Bournemouth |
Dean Huijsen | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | David Brooks |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evanilson FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.52 | 0.09 | 0.88 |
| Antoine Semenyo AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 0.32 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.73 | 0.13 |
| Kepa GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyler Adams DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Dango Ouattara AML | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| Alex Scott AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Adam Smith DR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| James Hill Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| David Brooks Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| Marcos Senesi Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Winterburn Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Daniel Jebbison Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrod Bowen FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Lucas Paquetá AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.30 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| James Ward-Prowse DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.20 |
| Alphonse Areola GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Jean-Clair Todibo DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohammed Kudus AMR | 86 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Tomas Soucek AMC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Edson Álvarez DMC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Oliver Scarles DL | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Emerson Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Niclas Füllkrug Sub | 34 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| Carlos Soler Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Luis Guilherme Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |