West Ham United v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 30 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 16
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
10 – 7
xG per shot
0.23 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
1.06 – 2.35
Goals − xG
-0.30 – -1.09
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.West Ham United win
27.2%
Draw
22.1%
Brighton and Hove Albion win
50.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.40–1.96 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.39–1.62 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 60% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
West Ham United 2.30 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 3.09 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
West Ham United attacking right
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.16 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Maxim De Cuyper |
| 6' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 6' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Maxim De Cuyper | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Diego Gómez |
| 8' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Diego Gómez |
| 9' |
 West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lucas Paquetá |
| 15' |
West Ham United |
Oliver Scarles | 0.16 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 22' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 23' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yasin Ayari | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 35' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.76 | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — | |
| 43' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Oliver Scarles |
| 43' |
West Ham United |
Oliver Scarles | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 47' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
James Milner | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danny Welbeck |
| 48' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 60' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Joël Veltman | 0.80 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 63' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.28 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Oliver Scarles |
| 70' |
West Ham United |
Max Kilman | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Soungoutou Magassa |
| 71' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Ferdi Kadioglu | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 74' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yasin Ayari | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 75' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ferdi Kadioglu |
| 77' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mateus Fernandes |
| 80' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 81' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Lewis Dunk | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ferdi Kadioglu |
| 84' |
West Ham United |
Ezra Mayers | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohamadou Kanté |
| 86' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yasin Ayari | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ferdi Kadioglu |
| 91' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Ferdi Kadioglu | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Paquetá AML | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.76 | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| Jarrod Bowen AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.09 | 0.44 |
| Oliver Scarles DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.64 | 0.77 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Freddie Potts DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kyle Walker-Peters DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mateus Fernandes AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Soungoutou Magassa DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Alphonse Areola GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Callum Wilson FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Jean-Clair Todibo DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Crysencio Summerville Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Ezra Mayers Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Mohamadou Kanté Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Tomas Soucek Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Welbeck FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.54 | 0.02 | 0.25 |
| Joël Veltman DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Yasin Ayari DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 0.45 |
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Diego Gómez AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.30 |
| James Milner DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Yankuba Minteh AMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Maxim De Cuyper AML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| Kaoru Mitoma Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| Brajan Gruda Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Georginio Rutter Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Jack Hinshelwood Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Charalampos Kostoulas Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |