West Ham United v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 20 September 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 18
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 14
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.25 – 1.48
Goals − xG
+0.53 – -0.39
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.West Ham United win
29.8%
Draw
26.8%
Crystal Palace win
43.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.10–1.39 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.31–1.83 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 61% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
West Ham United 0.47 xGCrystal Palace 2.39 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
West Ham United attacking right
Crystal Palace attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 West Ham United |
Konstantinos Mavropanos | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | James Ward-Prowse |
| 8' |
 Crystal Palace |
Yeremi Pino | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Crystal Palace |
Daichi Kamada | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Yeremi Pino |
| 34' |
Crystal Palace |
Adam Wharton | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Daichi Kamada |
| 35' |
Crystal Palace |
Yeremi Pino | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.60 | From Corner | — | Goal | — |
| 36' |
Crystal Palace |
Marc Guehi | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Daichi Kamada |
| 43' |
Crystal Palace |
Daniel Muñoz | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 46' |
Crystal Palace |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.49 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Adam Wharton |
| 48' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Goal | El Hadji Malick Diouf |
| 51' |
West Ham United |
James Ward-Prowse | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 52' |
Crystal Palace |
Daniel Muñoz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 58' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.10 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 62' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 63' |
Crystal Palace |
Justin Devenny | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 63' |
West Ham United |
Kyle Walker-Peters | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | James Ward-Prowse |
| 66' |
West Ham United |
Kyle Walker-Peters | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 67' |
Crystal Palace |
Tyrick Mitchell | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 72' |
Crystal Palace |
Daniel Muñoz | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 75' |
Crystal Palace |
Eddie Nketiah | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jefferson Lerma |
| 75' |
Crystal Palace |
Jefferson Lerma | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 78' |
Crystal Palace |
Tyrick Mitchell | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 80' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Niclas Füllkrug |
| 84' |
Crystal Palace |
Jefferson Lerma | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Eddie Nketiah |
| 87' |
Crystal Palace |
Justin Devenny | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Daichi Kamada |
| 92' |
West Ham United |
Luis Guilherme | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | El Hadji Malick Diouf |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrod Bowen AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Kyle Walker-Peters DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Lucas Paquetá AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| James Ward-Prowse DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| El Hadji Malick Diouf DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| Alphonse Areola GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mateus Fernandes DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Crysencio Summerville AML | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Callum Wilson FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Niclas Füllkrug Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| Luis Guilherme Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Soungoutou Magassa Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Philippe Mateta FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.17 | 0.78 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 0.39 |
| Daichi Kamada AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| Marc Guehi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Chris Richards DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Adam Wharton MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.64 | 0.19 |
| Will Hughes MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Yeremi Pino AMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| Justin Devenny Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Jefferson Lerma Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| Eddie Nketiah Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.02 |