West Ham United v Leeds United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 24 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 13
On target
8 – 3
Shots in box
13 – 9
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.58 – 0.37
Goals − xG
+0.26 – -1.99
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.West Ham United win
35.4%
Draw
29.9%
Leeds United win
34.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 18.3 xG
conceded 10
from 15.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.32–1.31 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.35–1.57 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 59% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
West Ham United 2.74 xGLeeds United 1.99 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
West Ham United attacking right
Leeds United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Leeds United |
James Justin | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jayden Bogle |
| 6' |
Leeds United |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.65 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | James Justin |
| 15' |
 West Ham United |
Pablo | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 15' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pablo |
| 22' |
West Ham United |
Mateus Fernandes | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | El Hadji Malick Diouf |
| 23' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dominic Calvert-Lewin |
| 34' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.66 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lukas Nmecha |
| 38' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Brenden Aaronson |
| 39' |
Leeds United |
Jayden Bogle | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dominic Calvert-Lewin |
| 42' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pablo |
| 45' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ethan Ampadu |
| 46' |
West Ham United |
Pablo | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 46' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Callum Wilson |
| 50' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.15 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mateus Fernandes |
| 66' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.46 | From Corner | — | Goal | Jarrod Bowen |
| 78' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mateus Fernandes |
| 83' |
Leeds United |
Facundo Buonanotte | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joe Rodon |
| 84' |
Leeds United |
Joël Piroe | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Leeds United |
Joël Piroe | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Lukas Nmecha |
| 90' |
Leeds United |
Sebastiaan Bornauw | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Facundo Buonanotte |
| 92' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 92' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 93' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Crysencio Summerville |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentín Castellanos FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.07 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Tomas Soucek DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Jarrod Bowen AMR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.86 | 0.62 |
| Crysencio Summerville AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.60 |
| Mateus Fernandes DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.20 | 0.72 |
| Mads Hermansen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| El Hadji Malick Diouf DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| Axel Disasi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Kyle Walker-Peters DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo AMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.08 | 0.51 |
| Callum Wilson Sub | 42 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.51 | 1.07 |
| Mohamadou Kanté Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leeds United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Nmecha FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.65 | 0.68 | 1.38 |
| Brenden Aaronson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| James Justin DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.65 | 0.79 |
| Joe Rodon DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Pascal Struijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Ethan Ampadu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.69 |
| Karl Darlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jayden Bogle DMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Ao Tanaka MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jaka Bijol DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.78 | 0.05 | 0.90 |
| Wilfried Gnonto Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel James Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Joël Piroe Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Facundo Buonanotte Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| Sebastiaan Bornauw Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 |