West Ham United v Liverpool — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 27 April 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 28
On target
8 – 8
Shots in box
8 – 23
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.17 – 0.51
Goals − xG
+1.21 – -0.30
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.West Ham United win
16.2%
Draw
17.1%
Liverpool win
66.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.24–2.61 | 1-2 9% | 74% | 66% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
West Ham United 0.79 xGLiverpool 2.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
West Ham United attacking right
Liverpool attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 10' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 10' |
Liverpool |
Harvey Elliott | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 11' |
 West Ham United |
Kurt Zouma | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Emerson |
| 13' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tomas Soucek |
| 15' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Kurt Zouma |
| 17' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Liverpool |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Liverpool |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 30' |
West Ham United |
Vladimir Coufal | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 32' |
Liverpool |
Harvey Elliott | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 35' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 38' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 39' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 40' |
Liverpool |
Harvey Elliott | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 42' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Edson Álvarez |
| 42' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Goal | Mohammed Kudus |
| 46' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 47' |
Liverpool |
Andrew Robertson | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Luis Díaz |
| 49' |
West Ham United |
Vladimir Coufal | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Liverpool |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 54' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 57' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 57' |
Liverpool |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 63' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 63' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 64' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
West Ham United |
Alphonse Areola | 0.00 | From Corner | — | Own Goal | — |
| 66' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tomas Soucek |
| 68' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 69' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.27 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 72' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 74' |
Liverpool |
Andrew Robertson | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 76' |
West Ham United |
Emerson | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 76' |
West Ham United |
Michail Antonio | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Goal | Jarrod Bowen |
| 85' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 85' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Liverpool |
Harvey Elliott | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Darwin Núñez |
| 90' |
Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 95' |
West Ham United |
Michail Antonio | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | James Ward-Prowse |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michail Antonio FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Jarrod Bowen AMR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Emerson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Mohammed Kudus AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| Kurt Zouma DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Lucas Paquetá AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Edson Álvarez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.44 |
| Angelo Ogbonna DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Alphonse Areola GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tomas Soucek DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| James Ward-Prowse Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.35 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Gakpo FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0.57 | 0.36 | 0.76 |
| Harvey Elliott FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Alexis Mac Allister MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.30 | 0.33 | 0.86 |
| Ryan Gravenberch MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.56 |
| Andrew Robertson DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.16 | 0.25 | 1.01 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Jarell Quansah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Luis Díaz FWL | 82 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0.26 | 0.52 | 1.01 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold DR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.37 | 0.81 |
| Wataru Endo MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Darwin Núñez Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Mohamed Salah Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Joseph Gomez Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |