West Ham United v Liverpool — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 29 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 22
On target
0 – 13
Shots in box
5 – 17
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.08
Goals − xG
-0.54 – +1.70
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.West Ham United win
15.3%
Draw
16.6%
Liverpool win
68.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.23–2.67 | 1-2 9% | 75% | 66% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
West Ham United 0.54 xGLiverpool 3.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
West Ham United attacking right
Liverpool attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 6' |
Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 14' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 17' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 22' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Curtis Jones |
| 23' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 29' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 33' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 34' |
 West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mohammed Kudus |
| 37' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Lucas Paquetá |
| 39' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.57 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mohamed Salah |
| 43' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Curtis Jones |
| 46' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.20 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 46' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 46' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aaron Wan-Bissaka |
| 47' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 48' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 49' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 53' |
Liverpool |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 63' |
Liverpool |
Andrew Robertson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 70' |
Liverpool |
Diogo Jota | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 75' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 77' |
West Ham United |
Aaron Wan-Bissaka | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mohammed Kudus |
| 77' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Niclas Füllkrug |
| 81' |
Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 83' |
Liverpool |
Diogo Jota | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mohamed Salah |
| 93' |
West Ham United |
Luis Guilherme | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aaron Wan-Bissaka |
| 94' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.05 | 0.36 |
| Lucas Paquetá DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Alphonse Areola GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Emerson AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Mohammed Kudus AMR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| Carlos Soler AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jarrod Bowen FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Edson Álvarez DMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Niclas Füllkrug Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Jean-Clair Todibo Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Crysencio Summerville Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Andy Irving Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Luis Guilherme Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah AMR | 90 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 1.68 | 1.14 | 2.30 |
| Luis Díaz FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.07 | 0.38 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.59 | 1.34 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Alexis Mac Allister DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 1.19 |
| Curtis Jones AMC | 77 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.50 |
| Andrew Robertson DL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Cody Gakpo AML | 61 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.61 | 0.60 | 1.19 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 60 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| Jarell Quansah Sub | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Joseph Gomez DC | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wataru Endo Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Diogo Jota Sub | 29 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Harvey Elliott Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |