West Ham United v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 10 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 9
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
4 – 7
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.12
Goals − xG
-0.31 – +0.26
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.West Ham United win
26.8%
Draw
25.0%
Manchester United win
48.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Manchester United are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWWWDWWLW last 10
scored 20
from 21.8 xG
conceded 13
from 15.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.39–1.90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.35–2.00 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 64% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
West Ham United 1.31 xGManchester United 0.74 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
West Ham United attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 12' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Axel Disasi |
| 16' |
 Manchester United |
Harry Maguire | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 21' |
Manchester United |
Luke Shaw | 0.11 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 40' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luke Shaw |
| 49' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.65 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jarrod Bowen |
| 53' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 64' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 76' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Luke Shaw |
| 87' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 90' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 91' |
West Ham United |
Adama Traoré | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Soungoutou Magassa |
| 93' |
Manchester United |
Joshua Zirkzee | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 94' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Oliver Scarles |
| 95' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bryan Mbeumo |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Soucek AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Jarrod Bowen AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| Crysencio Summerville AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Axel Disasi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.67 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mads Hermansen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mateus Fernandes DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Freddie Potts DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| El Hadji Malick Diouf DL | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Valentín Castellanos FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Callum Wilson Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Oliver Scarles Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Soungoutou Magassa Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Adama Traoré Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Kyle Walker-Peters Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Shaw DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| Bryan Mbeumo AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| Amad Diallo Traore AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Bruno Fernandes AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| Casemiro DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Senne Lammens GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Kobbie Mainoo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Lisandro Martínez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Diogo Dalot DR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Matheus Cunha FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Harry Maguire DC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Leny Yoro Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Benjamin Sesko Sub | 21 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Joshua Zirkzee Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.31 |