West Ham United v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 18 May 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 10
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
13 – 7
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.19 – 0.60
Goals − xG
+0.15 – -0.15
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.West Ham United win
30.2%
Draw
25.8%
Nottingham Forest win
44.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.21–1.51 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.40–1.29 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
West Ham United 0.85 xGNottingham Forest 2.15 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
West Ham United attacking right
Nottingham Forest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 West Ham United |
Jean-Clair Todibo | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | James Ward-Prowse |
| 1' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 4' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 4' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Neco Williams |
| 5' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Chris Wood |
| 6' |
West Ham United |
Vladimir Coufal | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 8' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 10' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 23' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.26 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Elliot Anderson |
| 31' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aaron Cresswell |
| 36' |
West Ham United |
Aaron Cresswell | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
West Ham United |
Aaron Cresswell | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
West Ham United |
Vladimir Coufal | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohammed Kudus |
| 60' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.32 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Anthony Elanga |
| 70' |
West Ham United |
Carlos Soler | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 72' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Edson Álvarez |
| 72' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 74' | Nottingham Forest | Anthony Elanga | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 76' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolás Domínguez | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
West Ham United |
Luis Guilherme | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 85' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 85' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 89' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 99' | Nottingham Forest | Jota Silva | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Chris Wood |
| 102' |
West Ham United |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Carlos Soler |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Anthony Elanga FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| Chris Wood FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| Nicolás Domínguez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ola Aina DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Neco Williams DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.34 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 89 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.92 | 0.30 | 1.22 |
| Ibrahim Sangare MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Elliot Anderson MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.01 |
| Jota Silva Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Morato Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danilo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Yates Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrod Bowen FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Jean-Clair Todibo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Vladimir Coufal MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.32 |
| Alphonse Areola GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Mohammed Kudus FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| James Ward-Prowse MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| Aaron Cresswell DC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| Tomas Soucek AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Guido Rodríguez MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Lucas Paquetá Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Niclas Füllkrug Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Edson Álvarez Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.23 |
| Carlos Soler Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.06 | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| Luis Guilherme Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.21 |