West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 13 September 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 14
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
6 – 10
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.54 – 0.56
Goals − xG
-0.79 – +1.49
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.West Ham United win
39.8%
Draw
24.9%
Tottenham Hotspur win
35.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.49–1.39 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.51–1.78 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 65% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
West Ham United 0.79 xGTottenham Hotspur 1.51 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
West Ham United attacking right
Tottenham Hotspur attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
 West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mateus Fernandes |
| 17' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Xavi Simons | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cristian Romero |
| 21' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | James Ward-Prowse |
| 37' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pape Sarr | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 42' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Cristian Romero | 0.11 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Micky van de Ven |
| 45' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 46' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pape Sarr | 0.23 | From Corner | — | Goal | Xavi Simons |
| 48' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mateus Fernandes |
| 49' |
West Ham United |
El Hadji Malick Diouf | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mathys Tel | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
West Ham United |
Max Kilman | 0.49 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | James Ward-Prowse |
| 56' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Lucas Bergvall | 0.22 | Open Play | — | Goal | Cristian Romero |
| 59' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
João Palhinha | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mohammed Kudus |
| 63' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Micky van de Ven | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Lucas Bergvall |
| 66' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 68' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kyle Walker-Peters |
| 73' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
João Palhinha | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Iyenoma Destiny Udogie |
| 90' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 92' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Richarlison |
| 94' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
João Palhinha | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mohammed Kudus |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jarrod Bowen AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| El Hadji Malick Diouf DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Mads Hermansen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kyle Walker-Peters DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| James Ward-Prowse DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Lucas Paquetá FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Mateus Fernandes AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| Crysencio Summerville AML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Tomas Soucek DMC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Soungoutou Magassa Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Luis Guilherme Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Callum Wilson Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andy Irving Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Kudus FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.66 | 0.08 | 0.69 |
| Pape Sarr MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| João Palhinha MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Cristian Romero DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| Guglielmo Vicario GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| Lucas Bergvall MC | 83 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| Micky van de Ven DC | 83 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| Mathys Tel FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Xavi Simons FWL | 74 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Djed Spence DL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Richarlison Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Iyenoma Destiny Udogie Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Wilson Odobert Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Kevin Danso Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Brennan Johnson Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |