West Ham United v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 10 April 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 14
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
14 – 9
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.97 – 0.20
Goals − xG
+1.46 – -0.57
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.West Ham United win
50.9%
Draw
29.5%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
19.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.57–0.91 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.59–1.09 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 53% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
West Ham United 2.54 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 0.57 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
West Ham United attacking right
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
André | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 7' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Angel Gomes |
| 13' |
 West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mateus Fernandes |
| 15' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Yerson Mosquera | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jackson Tchatchoua |
| 24' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Hugo Bueno | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jackson Tchatchoua |
| 26' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 29' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | El Hadji Malick Diouf |
| 31' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Adam Armstrong | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ladislav Krejcí |
| 35' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Adam Armstrong | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Yerson Mosquera |
| 37' |
West Ham United |
El Hadji Malick Diouf | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 37' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.09 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Konstantinos Mavropanos |
| 41' |
West Ham United |
Konstantinos Mavropanos | 0.25 | From Corner | — | Goal | Jarrod Bowen |
| 44' |
West Ham United |
Pablo | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Valentín Castellanos |
| 51' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Adam Armstrong | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | André |
| 51' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.20 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Angel Gomes | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 53' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Valentín Castellanos |
| 53' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | El Hadji Malick Diouf |
| 59' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Angel Gomes | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Ladislav Krejcí | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hugo Bueno |
| 63' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mateus Fernandes |
| 64' |
West Ham United |
El Hadji Malick Diouf | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mateus Fernandes |
| 65' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pablo |
| 67' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jarrod Bowen |
| 78' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kyle Walker-Peters |
| 82' |
West Ham United |
Konstantinos Mavropanos | 0.60 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 84' |
West Ham United |
Adama Traoré | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 88' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Hee-Chan Hwang | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Hugo Bueno | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 92' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Tom Edozie | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tolu Arokodare |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.85 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| Jarrod Bowen MR | 90 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.65 | 0.93 |
| Tomas Soucek MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| El Hadji Malick Diouf DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| Axel Disasi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Mads Hermansen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Kyle Walker-Peters DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.64 |
| Mateus Fernandes MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.62 |
| Valentín Castellanos FW | 83 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.14 | 0.56 |
| Crysencio Summerville ML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.02 | 0.57 |
| Pablo AMC | 79 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 0.32 |
| Adama Traoré Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Freddie Potts Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Callum Wilson Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Soungoutou Magassa Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Bueno DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Ladislav Krejcí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| André MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Santiago Bueno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jackson Tchatchoua DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| José Sá GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| João Gomes MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Adam Armstrong FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Yerson Mosquera DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Angel Gomes AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Mateus Mané Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Rodrigo Gomes Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Tolu Arokodare Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Tom Edozie Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |