West Ham United v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 9 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 19
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
15 – 12
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.49 – 0.22
Goals − xG
+0.80 – -0.48
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.West Ham United win
55.8%
Draw
21.4%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
22.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.02–1.22 | 2-1 10% | 63% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
West Ham United 1.20 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 1.48 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
West Ham United attacking right
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 West Ham United |
Konstantinos Mavropanos | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 15' |
West Ham United |
Max Kilman | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 16' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mario Lemina | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nélson Semedo |
| 20' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | André |
| 22' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 23' |
West Ham United |
Max Kilman | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Aaron Wan-Bissaka |
| 25' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mario Lemina |
| 27' |
West Ham United |
Carlos Soler | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 28' |
West Ham United |
Carlos Soler | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 30' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Emerson |
| 31' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matt Doherty |
| 32' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 34' |
West Ham United |
Konstantinos Mavropanos | 0.14 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Max Kilman |
| 38' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Nélson Semedo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 38' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rayan Ait Nouri | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | João Gomes |
| 39' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 43' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aaron Wan-Bissaka |
| 44' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mario Lemina | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matt Doherty | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | João Gomes |
| 44' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matt Doherty | 0.10 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Goal | Jarrod Bowen |
| 56' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Toti |
| 59' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 64' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 67' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matt Doherty | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matt Doherty | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 71' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | Mohammed Kudus |
| 78' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 79' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mario Lemina | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 82' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Tommy Doyle | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 92' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Aaron Cresswell |
| 95' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mario Lemina | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Tommy Doyle |
| 97' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Gonçalo Guedes |
| 97' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 98' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrod Bowen FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.08 | 0.50 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Tomas Soucek DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Lukasz Fabianski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Edson Álvarez DMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emerson DL | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| Mohammed Kudus AMR | 88 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| Crysencio Summerville AML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.14 | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| Carlos Soler AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lucas Paquetá Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Danny Ings Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Guido Rodríguez Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aaron Cresswell Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Clair Todibo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Doherty DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.32 | 1.03 |
| Mario Lemina MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Matheus Cunha AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.26 | 0.61 |
| Nélson Semedo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.98 |
| Santiago Bueno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Sam Johnstone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Toti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.39 |
| Rayan Ait Nouri DML | 87 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.40 | 0.89 |
| João Gomes AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.51 |
| André MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Gonçalo Guedes Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.50 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Tommy Doyle Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Rodrigo Gomes Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |