Wolverhampton Wanderers v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 31 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526

Premier League xG Prediction generated 7 Sep 2026, 02:04

Wolverhampton Wanderers

0–2

2.10 – 1.59 xG

Bournemouth

Shots

17 – 9

On target

7 – 4

Shots in box

7 – 7

xG per shot

0.12 – 0.18

Set-piece xG

1.45 – 0.05

Goals − xG

-2.12 – +0.41

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Wolverhampton Wanderers win

23.8%

Draw

28.5%

Bournemouth win

47.7%

242848

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWDLLLDLDD last 10 scored 9 from 12.7 xG conceded 17 from 19.3 xG

Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWDWWDDLDD last 10 scored 16 from 17.6 xG conceded 11 from 16.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend-oos	242848	1.06–1.58	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
dc-xg-oos	272548	1.10–1.55	1-1 12%	49%	52%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Wolverhampton Wanderers 2.12 xGBournemouth 1.59 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking right Bournemouth attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
14'	Bournemouth	Eli Junior Kroupi	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Amine Adli
18'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Mateus Mané	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	João Gomes
22'	Bournemouth	Amine Adli	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Evanilson
23'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Mateus Mané	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	André
28'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Mateus Mané	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Hee-Chan Hwang
32'	Bournemouth	Eli Junior Kroupi	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Amine Adli
42'	Bournemouth	Amine Adli	0.48	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Eli Junior Kroupi
45'	Bournemouth	Alejandro Jiménez	0.13	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Alex Scott
46'	Bournemouth	Alex Scott	0.01	From Corner	—	Blocked Shot	Amine Adli
55'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Tolu Arokodare	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
58'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Hee-Chan Hwang	0.09	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
62'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Tolu Arokodare	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Hee-Chan Hwang
64'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Tolu Arokodare	0.42	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Hugo Bueno
66'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	André	0.03	Set Piece	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
66'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Santiago Bueno	0.08	Set Piece	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
71'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	João Gomes	0.04	From Corner	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Emmanuel Agbadou
71'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Jørgen Strand Larsen	0.34	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
76'	Bournemouth	Marcos Senesi	0.04	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Ryan Christie
79'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Tolu Arokodare	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
80'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Yerson Mosquera	0.33	From Corner	—	Shot On Post	Hugo Bueno
82'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Emmanuel Agbadou	0.04	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Mateus Mané
85'	Bournemouth	Alex Tóth	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Rayan
85'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Jean-Ricner Bellegarde	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
88'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Mateus Mané	0.06	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
90'	Bournemouth	Alex Scott	0.70	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Rayan
94'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Tolu Arokodare	0.46	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	Mateus Mané

Players

Bournemouth

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Alex Scott DMC	90	1	0	2	1	0.72	0.13	1.53
Marcos Senesi DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.04	0.00	0.05
Adam Smith DR	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.80
Adrien Truffert DL	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.76
James Hill DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04
Lewis Cook DMC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Djordje Petrovic GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Alejandro Jiménez AMR	87	0	0	1	0	0.13	0.00	0.13
Evanilson FW	86	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.04	0.52
Amine Adli AML	69	0	1	2	3	0.52	0.10	0.60
Eli Junior Kroupi AMC	69	1	0	2	1	0.08	0.48	0.56
Rayan Sub	21	0	1	0	2	0.00	0.80	0.80
Ryan Christie Sub	21	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.04	0.70
Enes Ünal Sub	4	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Alex Tóth Sub	3	0	0	1	0	0.10	0.00	0.80
Bafode Diakite Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00