Wolverhampton Wanderers v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 30 November 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 12
On target
3 – 8
Shots in box
5 – 10
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.26
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 2.38
Goals − xG
+1.13 – +0.92
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolverhampton Wanderers win
30.3%
Draw
24.0%
Bournemouth win
45.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.31–1.67 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 59% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0.87 xGBournemouth 3.08 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking right
Bournemouth attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 4' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 4' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.24 | Open Play | — | Goal | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde |
| 7' |
Bournemouth |
Milos Kerkez | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Marcus Tavernier |
| 10' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 10' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Evanilson |
| 11' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rodrigo Gomes |
| 17' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 26' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rayan Ait Nouri | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 30' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 35' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 45' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | David Brooks |
| 58' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Toti | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mario Lemina |
| 60' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Nélson Semedo | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Bournemouth |
Tyler Adams | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Marcos Senesi |
| 68' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Gonçalo Guedes |
| 73' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 79' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 87' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dean Huijsen |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Tavernier AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Tyler Adams DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Ryan Christie DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Adam Smith DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Kepa GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Justin Kluivert AMC | 85 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2.32 | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| Evanilson FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.03 | 0.53 |
| David Brooks AMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.24 |
| Dango Ouattara Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Philip Billing Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dean Huijsen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Matheus Cunha AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.28 |
| João Gomes DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Rayan Ait Nouri DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Nélson Semedo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mario Lemina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| José Sá GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| André DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Toti DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde AMR | 72 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Rodrigo Gomes AML | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Craig Dawson Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gonçalo Guedes Sub | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| Carlos Forbs Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |