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Wolverhampton Wanderers v Burnley — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 5 December 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Shots
7 – 12
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
5 – 4
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.60 – 0.21
Goals − xG
-0.12 – -0.80
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.60.91.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Hee-Chan Hwang 41' — goal
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.12 xGBurnley 0.80 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Josh Brownhill 17' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Luca Koleosho 19' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Charlie Taylor 23' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Zeki Amdouni 23' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Pablo Sarabia 24' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Pablo Sarabia 26' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Zeki Amdouni 31' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Jacob Bruun Larsen 34' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Jay Rodriguez 37' — Saved Shot (0.40 xG, Open Play)Josh Brownhill 37' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Hee-Chan Hwang 41' — Goal (0.40 xG, Open Play)Vitinho 50' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Mario Lemina 54' — Missed Shot (0.49 xG, Set Piece)Jacob Bruun Larsen 58' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Hee-Chan Hwang 69' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Pablo Sarabia 69' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Matheus Cunha 75' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Vitinho 77' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Mike Trésor 80' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking right Burnley attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
17' Burnley Josh Brownhill 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jacob Bruun Larsen
19' Burnley Luca Koleosho 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Charlie Taylor
23' Burnley Charlie Taylor 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
23' Burnley Zeki Amdouni 0.06 From Corner Blocked Shot Jacob Bruun Larsen
24' Wolverhampton Wanderers Pablo Sarabia 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Hee-Chan Hwang
26' Wolverhampton Wanderers Pablo Sarabia 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Nélson Semedo
31' Burnley Zeki Amdouni 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Hjalmar Ekdal
34' Burnley Jacob Bruun Larsen 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Zeki Amdouni
37' Burnley Jay Rodriguez 0.40 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Johann Berg Gudmundsson
37' Burnley Josh Brownhill 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
41' Wolverhampton Wanderers Hee-Chan Hwang 0.40 Open Play Right Foot Goal Matheus Cunha
50' Burnley Vitinho 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
54' Wolverhampton Wanderers Mario Lemina 0.49 Set Piece Missed Shot Pablo Sarabia
58' Burnley Jacob Bruun Larsen 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot
69' Wolverhampton Wanderers Hee-Chan Hwang 0.03 From Corner Missed Shot Pablo Sarabia
69' Wolverhampton Wanderers Pablo Sarabia 0.06 Direct Freekick Left Foot Saved Shot
75' Wolverhampton Wanderers Matheus Cunha 0.02 Set Piece Right Foot Saved Shot Pablo Sarabia
77' Burnley Vitinho 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
80' Burnley Mike Trésor 0.06 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot

Players

Burnley

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jay Rodriguez FW 90 0 0 1 0 0.40 0.00 0.40
Zeki Amdouni FW 90 0 0 2 1 0.09 0.03 0.06
Josh Brownhill MC 90 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.08
Vitinho DR 90 0 0 2 0 0.04 0.00 0.00
Charlie Taylor DL 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.05 0.05
James Trafford GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dara O'Shea DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sander Berge MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Hjalmar Ekdal DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.03
Jacob Bruun Larsen MR 74 0 0 2 2 0.07 0.09 0.06
Johann Berg Gudmundsson Sub 55 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.40 0.40
Luca Koleosho ML 35 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Mike Trésor Sub 16 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.00
Wilson Odobert Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nathan Redmond Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Wolverhampton Wanderers

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mario Lemina MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.49 0.00 0.08
Hee-Chan Hwang FWR 90 1 0 2 1 0.43 0.05 0.44
Matheus Cunha FW 90 0 1 1 1 0.02 0.40 0.40
Nélson Semedo DMR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.08
Max Kilman DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
João Gomes MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Hugo Bueno DML 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Daniel Bentley GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Craig Dawson DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Toti DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Pablo Sarabia FWL 83 0 0 3 3 0.19 0.54 0.52
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Matt Doherty Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Boubacar Traore Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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