Wolverhampton Wanderers v Liverpool — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 28 September 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 10
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
5 – 8
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.01 – 0.96
Goals − xG
+0.25 – -0.12
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolverhampton Wanderers win
14.9%
Draw
17.9%
Liverpool win
67.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.05–2.40 | 1-2 10% | 67% | 59% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0.75 xGLiverpool 2.12 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking right
Liverpool attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 14' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde |
| 21' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nélson Semedo |
| 25' |
 Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Liverpool |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 39' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 39' |
Liverpool |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 46' |
Liverpool |
Ibrahima Konaté | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Goal | Diogo Jota |
| 49' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rayan Ait Nouri | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 60' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 64' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 67' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 71' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Carlos Forbs | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 75' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Nélson Semedo | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 82' |
Liverpool |
Ibrahima Konaté | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
Players
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1.15 | 0.08 | 0.47 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Diogo Jota FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.63 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Andrew Robertson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexis Mac Allister DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.69 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Luis Díaz AML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| Curtis Jones Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Cody Gakpo Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Joseph Gomez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayan Ait Nouri DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.49 | 0.06 | 0.57 |
| Matheus Cunha MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| Nélson Semedo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Sam Johnstone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mario Lemina MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| João Gomes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| André DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Toti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Santiago Bueno DC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde ML | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Carlos Forbs Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tommy Doyle Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |