Wolverhampton Wanderers v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 26 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 11
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
3 – 5
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.06
Goals − xG
+1.17 – -0.36
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Wolverhampton Wanderers win
33.1%
Draw
23.3%
Manchester United win
43.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.47–1.71 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 63% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0.83 xGManchester United 0.36 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kobbie Mainoo |
| 18' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 19' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 22' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | João Gomes |
| 25' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Nélson Semedo |
| 27' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kobbie Mainoo |
| 29' |
Manchester United |
Manuel Ugarte | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kobbie Mainoo |
| 33' |
Manchester United |
Lisandro Martínez | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 38' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Nélson Semedo | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | André |
| 40' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rasmus Højlund |
| 54' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rayan Ait Nouri | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 67' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Antony |
| 68' |
Manchester United |
Antony | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 81' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Casemiro |
| 86' |
Manchester United |
Noussair Mazraoui | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Manchester United |
Harry Maguire | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Casemiro |
| 98' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Hee-Chan Hwang | 0.64 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Matheus Cunha |
Players
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Maguire DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Lisandro Martínez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Diogo Dalot DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Noussair Mazraoui DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| André Onana GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Amad Diallo Traore AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Rasmus Højlund FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Manuel Ugarte MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Leny Yoro DC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Kobbie Mainoo MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Bruno Fernandes AMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Antony Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| Casemiro Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| Christian Eriksen Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Alejandro Garnacho Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Joshua Zirkzee Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Matheus Cunha AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| Nélson Semedo DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Santiago Bueno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Matt Doherty DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| José Sá GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Toti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| André MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Rayan Ait Nouri DML | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Gonçalo Guedes AMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| João Gomes MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Tommy Doyle Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang Sub | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Rodrigo Gomes Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Craig Dawson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |