Wolverhampton Wanderers v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 6 January 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425

Premier League xG Prediction generated 7 Sep 2026, 02:04

Wolverhampton Wanderers

0–3

1.90 – 2.57 xG

Nottingham Forest

Shots

13 – 11

On target

5 – 3

Shots in box

9 – 8

xG per shot

0.15 – 0.23

Set-piece xG

0.24 – 0.06

Goals − xG

-1.96 – +0.43

AI prediction

dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Wolverhampton Wanderers win

30.3%

Draw

27.0%

Nottingham Forest win

42.7%

302743

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWDLLLDLDD last 10 scored 9 from 12.7 xG conceded 17 from 19.3 xG

Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWWWDLDLDD last 10 scored 19 from 15.9 xG conceded 11 from 15.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
dc-xg-oos	302743	1.10–1.36	1-1 13%	45%	50%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.96 xGNottingham Forest 2.57 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking right Nottingham Forest attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
6'	Nottingham Forest	Morgan Gibbs-White	0.14	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Anthony Elanga
9'	Nottingham Forest	Chris Wood	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
13'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Gonçalo Guedes	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Pedro Lima
13'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Hee-Chan Hwang	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
13'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Jørgen Strand Larsen	0.90	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
13'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Rodrigo Gomes	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Matt Doherty
14'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Santiago Bueno	0.11	From Corner	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Jørgen Strand Larsen
20'	Nottingham Forest	Nicolás Domínguez	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Anthony Elanga
24'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Hee-Chan Hwang	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Jørgen Strand Larsen
25'	Nottingham Forest	Elliot Anderson	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Callum Hudson-Odoi
28'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Jørgen Strand Larsen	0.47	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Rodrigo Gomes
30'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Santiago Bueno	0.04	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	Pedro Lima
43'	Nottingham Forest	Chris Wood	0.48	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Callum Hudson-Odoi
46'	Nottingham Forest	Nikola Milenkovic	0.04	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Anthony Elanga
53'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Gonçalo Guedes	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	João Gomes
59'	Nottingham Forest	Murillo	0.03	Direct Freekick	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
60'	Nottingham Forest	Elliot Anderson	0.14	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Anthony Elanga
66'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Jørgen Strand Larsen	0.11	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Gonçalo Guedes
71'	Nottingham Forest	Callum Hudson-Odoi	0.40	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Jota Silva
82'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Jean-Ricner Bellegarde	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Matt Doherty
82'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Jean-Ricner Bellegarde	0.05	From Corner	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
84'	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Santiago Bueno	0.05	Set Piece	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
88'	Nottingham Forest	Taiwo Awoniyi	0.44	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
93'	Nottingham Forest	Taiwo Awoniyi	0.74	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	James Ward-Prowse

Players

Nottingham Forest

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Chris Wood FW	90	1	0	2	0	0.58	0.00	0.61
Callum Hudson-Odoi AML	90	0	1	1	2	0.40	0.53	1.82
Morgan Gibbs-White AMC	90	1	0	1	0	0.14	0.00	0.76
Nikola Milenkovic DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.04	0.00	1.21
Murillo DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.48
Matz Sels GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.50
Neco Williams DL	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.48
Ola Aina DR	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.87
Anthony Elanga AMR	72	0	1	0	4	0.00	0.35	0.79
Elliot Anderson DMC	71	0	0	2	0	0.19	0.00	0.81
Nicolás Domínguez DMC	62	0	0	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.03
Morato Sub	28	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jota Silva Sub	19	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.40	0.40
Ryan Yates Sub	18	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Taiwo Awoniyi Sub	1	1	0	2	0	1.18	0.00	1.18
James Ward-Prowse Sub	1	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.74	0.74