Wolverhampton Wanderers v Watford — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 24 October 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 6 Sep 2026, 02:06

Wolverhampton Wanderers

10:00

Watford

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 1,168h before kick-off

Wolverhampton Wanderers win

56.0%

model 57.2%

Draw

22.0%

model 21.7%

Watford win

22.0%

model 21.1%

562222

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (2,277 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.3%
1-1 9.2%
3-1 7.0%
2-0 6.9%
2-2 6.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	70.1%	Under 2.5	29.9%
BTTS yes	67.4%	BTTS no	32.6%
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1+	89.7%	Wolverhampton Wanderers 2+	66.2%
Watford 1+	74.1%	Watford 2+	39.1%

Expected goals 2.27 – 1.35. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

42/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

93%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Wolverhampton Wanderers carry the stronger rating, 1409 Elo against 1382.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Wolverhampton Wanderers have an estimated 56.0% win probability, against 22.0% for the draw and 22.0% for Watford. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.27 for Wolverhampton Wanderers and 1.35 for Watford.

Why Wolverhampton Wanderers

Wolverhampton Wanderers carry the stronger rating, 1409 Elo against 1382.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.0%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Watford can win

Nothing in the data singles out Watford.

Key players

Wolverhampton Wanderers's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Adam Armstrong (0.34), Tolu Arokodare (0.24), Mateus Mané (0.19).

Availability

1 of Wolverhampton Wanderers's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Watford, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Wolverhampton Wanderers: 50% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.54 xG a match from set pieces. Watford: 39% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 15.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Wolverhampton Wanderers's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Wolverhampton Wanderers are the model's most likely outcome at 56.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.3%. Confidence 42/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWDLLLDLDD last 10 scored 9 from 12.7 xG conceded 17 from 19.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	641917	2.70–1.42	2-1 8%	78%	71%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win	64.0%	58.2%	43.5%	1.34×	1.72
Draw	18.5%	19.4%	27.6%	0.70×	5.16
Watford to win	17.5%	19.4%	29.0%	0.67×	5.17

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers & both teams score	42.1%	40.1%	20.2%	1.99×	2.50
Wolverhampton Wanderers & not both score	21.9%	21.9%	23.4%	0.94×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	16.2%	17.9%	20.4%	0.88×	5.58
Watford & both teams score	13.1%	13.3%	13.8%	0.96×	7.54
Watford & not both score	4.3%	4.9%	15.3%	0.32×	20.53
Draw & not both score	2.4%	4.9%	7.3%	0.67×	20.59

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers & over 1.5	60.3%	54.5%	32.5%	1.68×	1.83
Wolverhampton Wanderers & over 2.5	54.4%	48.8%	26.4%	1.85×	2.05
Wolverhampton Wanderers & over 3.5	40.6%	40.3%	11.1%	3.63×	2.48
Wolverhampton Wanderers & under 3.5	23.4%	21.6%	32.5%	0.67×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	16.2%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Watford & over 1.5	15.9%	18.0%	21.4%	0.84×	5.56
Watford & over 2.5	14.3%	12.9%	16.2%	0.80×	7.77
Wolverhampton Wanderers & under 2.5	9.6%	7.9%	17.2%	0.46×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	9.2%	7.9%	6.0%	1.31×	12.70
Draw & under 2.5	9.3%	7.9%	21.6%	0.36×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	9.2%	7.9%	6.0%	1.31×	12.70
Draw & under 3.5	9.3%	7.9%	21.6%	0.36×	12.70
Watford & over 3.5	9.1%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.70
Watford & under 3.5	8.4%	7.9%	22.3%	0.35×	12.70
Wolverhampton Wanderers & under 1.5	3.7%	4.8%	11.1%	0.43×	20.93
Watford & under 2.5	3.2%	4.8%	13.0%	0.37×	20.93
Draw & under 1.5	2.4%	4.8%	7.3%	0.65×	20.94
Watford & under 1.5	1.6%	4.8%	7.7%	0.62×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (1UP)	78.9%	79.2%	—	—	1.26
Watford (1UP)	41.2%	39.0%	—	—	2.57

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (2UP)	64.0%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Watford (2UP)	17.5%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win 2nd half	53.3%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
2nd half drawn	26.2%	26.3%	—	—	3.80
Watford to win 2nd half	20.5%	22.9%	—	—	4.37

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (+0.5)	82.5%	82.4%	71.0%	1.16×	1.21
Watford (+2.5)	73.8%	73.7%	91.9%	0.80×	1.36
Wolverhampton Wanderers (-0.5)	64.0%	62.9%	43.5%	1.45×	1.59
Watford (+1.5)	55.6%	57.0%	80.7%	0.71×	1.76
Wolverhampton Wanderers (-1.5)	44.4%	43.0%	19.3%	2.22×	2.33
Watford (+0.5)	36.0%	37.1%	56.5%	0.66×	2.70
Wolverhampton Wanderers (-2.5)	26.2%	26.3%	8.1%	3.26×	3.80
Watford (-0.5)	17.5%	17.6%	29.0%	0.61×	5.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to concede	93.3%	91.8%	77.5%	1.19×	1.09
Watford clean sheet	6.7%	8.2%	22.5%	0.36×	12.24

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to concede in 1st half	68.7%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Watford clean sheet in 1st half	31.3%	29.4%	—	—	3.40

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford under 6.5 corners	87.6%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Watford under 5.5 corners	80.0%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Watford under 4.5 corners	69.1%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Watford over 2.5 corners	62.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Watford under 3.5 corners	54.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Watford over 3.5 corners	45.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Watford under 2.5 corners	37.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Watford over 4.5 corners	30.9%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Watford over 5.5 corners	20.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.39
Watford over 6.5 corners	12.4%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford under 3.5 goals	94.5%	92.4%	97.8%	0.94×	1.08
Watford under 2.5 goals	83.0%	81.4%	90.6%	0.90×	1.23
Watford over 0.5 goals	75.7%	76.2%	69.4%	1.10×	1.31
Watford under 1.5 goals	58.7%	59.6%	69.9%	0.85×	1.68
Watford over 1.5 goals	41.3%	40.4%	30.1%	1.34×	2.47
Watford under 0.5 goals	24.3%	23.8%	30.6%	0.78×	4.21
Watford over 2.5 goals	17.0%	18.6%	9.5%	1.96×	5.39
Watford over 3.5 goals	5.5%	7.6%	2.2%	3.42×	13.09

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford under 1.5 in 1st half	88.9%	89.5%	—	—	1.12
Watford under 0.5 in 1st half	56.8%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Watford over 0.5 in 1st half	43.2%	37.6%	—	—	2.66
Watford over 1.5 in 1st half	11.1%	10.5%	—	—	9.51

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (away no bet)	77.5%	73.7%	61.2%	1.20×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	22.5%	26.3%	38.8%	0.68×	3.80

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford even goals	53.0%	52.8%	52.6%	1.00×	1.90
Watford odd goals	47.0%	47.2%	47.4%	1.00×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	64.5%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
Both halves over 1.5 goals	35.5%	34.9%	—	—	2.86

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	85.3%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Both halves under 1.5 goals	14.7%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	78.0%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score 2+ in a row	65.2%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Either team to score 3+ in a row	41.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score 3+ in a row	35.2%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Watford to score 2+ in a row	26.8%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Watford to score 3+ in a row	7.0%	5.6%	—	—	17.79

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (+3.5)	88.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (+2.5)	82.1%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Watford corners (+3.5)	78.5%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (+1.5)	73.7%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Watford corners (+2.5)	69.9%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Watford corners (+1.5)	59.5%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (-1.5)	40.5%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (-2.5)	30.1%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Watford corners (-1.5)	26.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Wolverhampton Wanderers corners (-3.5)	21.5%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Watford corners (-2.5)	17.9%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Watford corners (-3.5)	11.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	59.9%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
9-11 corners	23.4%	25.6%	—	—	3.90
12+ corners	16.8%	22.6%	—	—	4.42

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	88.1%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	83.2%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	77.0%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	69.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 8.5 corners	59.9%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	50.6%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 7.5 corners	49.4%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 8.5 corners	40.1%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	30.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 10.5 corners	23.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 11.5 corners	16.8%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Over 12.5 corners	11.9%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	14.9%	11.5%	2.9%	3.92×	8.73
2-1	8.4%	7.4%	11.4%	0.65×	13.47
1-1	7.0%	7.4%	14.4%	0.51×	13.47
3-1	7.6%	7.4%	4.3%	1.73×	13.47
4-1	5.1%	7.4%	0.9%	8.64×	13.47
2-0	6.0%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.47
2-2	6.0%	7.4%	5.2%	1.42×	13.47
3-0	5.4%	7.4%	4.0%	1.84×	13.47
3-2	5.4%	7.4%	1.8%	4.12×	13.47
3-3	2.5%	1.7%	0.9%	1.99×	58.51
3-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.3%	6.63×	58.52
4-0	3.6%	1.7%	1.7%	0.99×	58.50
4-2	3.6%	1.7%	0.8%	2.21×	58.50
4-3	1.7%	1.7%	0.2%	9.95×	58.51
4-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.1%	19.89×	58.52
0-0	2.4%	1.7%	7.3%	0.23×	58.51
0-1	1.6%	1.7%	7.7%	0.22×	58.52
0-2	1.6%	1.7%	5.3%	0.32×	58.51
0-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.52
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	3.98×	58.52
1-0	3.7%	1.7%	11.1%	0.15×	58.50
1-2	4.4%	1.7%	7.9%	0.22×	58.50
1-3	2.1%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.51
1-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.6%	2.84×	58.52
2-3	2.8%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.51
2-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.3%	6.63×	58.52

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers leading at HT (DNB)	73.8%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Watford leading at HT (DNB)	26.2%	28.2%	—	—	3.55

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw (1X)	82.5%	80.6%	71.0%	1.14×	1.24
Wolverhampton Wanderers or Watford (12)	81.5%	80.6%	72.4%	1.11×	1.24
Watford or draw (X2)	36.0%	41.8%	56.5%	0.74×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw at HT	82.1%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Wolverhampton Wanderers or Watford at HT	68.2%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
Watford or draw at HT	49.6%	52.7%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw (1UP)	82.5%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Watford or draw (1UP)	41.2%	52.5%	—	—	1.91

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw in 2nd half	79.5%	77.1%	—	—	1.30
Wolverhampton Wanderers or Watford in 2nd half	73.8%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Watford or draw in 2nd half	46.7%	47.7%	—	—	2.10

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	51.2%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
A half drawn	48.8%	49.9%	—	—	2.00

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (DNB)	78.5%	74.6%	60.0%	1.24×	1.34
Watford (DNB)	21.5%	25.4%	40.0%	0.63×	3.94

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score first	64.1%	64.8%	—	—	1.54
Watford to score first	33.5%	27.0%	—	—	3.70
No goal scored	2.4%	4.3%	—	—	23.46

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	71.4%	62.3%	54.2%	1.15×	1.61
Not both teams to score	28.6%	37.7%	45.8%	0.82×	2.65

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	64.4%	50.2%	39.9%	1.26×	1.99
Not both score & under 2.5	15.2%	21.7%	37.3%	0.58×	4.61
Not both score & over 2.5	13.4%	12.3%	8.6%	1.43×	8.12
Both score & under 2.5	7.0%	8.4%	14.4%	0.58×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	68.9%	71.0%	89.0%	0.80×	1.41
Both teams to score 2+	31.1%	29.0%	11.0%	2.64×	3.44

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	54.8%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Both teams to score in 2nd half	45.2%	43.4%	—	—	2.30

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	38.3%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
Both score 2nd half only	31.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Both score 1st half only	16.5%	15.7%	—	—	6.36
Both score in both halves	13.3%	10.6%	—	—	9.47

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	70.2%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	29.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.96

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	75.0%	79.0%	—	—	1.27
A half without a goal	25.0%	21.0%	—	—	4.76

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	46.7%	47.4%	22.4%	2.11×	2.11
2-3 goals	33.5%	30.8%	50.4%	0.61×	3.25
7+ goals	12.2%	16.9%	1.4%	12.32×	5.91
0-1 goals	7.6%	7.6%	25.9%	0.29×	13.16

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to score exactly 1	34.4%	33.9%	39.4%	0.86×	2.95
Watford to score exactly 0	24.3%	22.4%	30.6%	0.73×	4.46
Watford to score exactly 2	24.3%	22.4%	20.7%	1.08×	4.46
Watford to score 3+	17.0%	19.5%	9.5%	2.07×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score 3+	50.6%	43.4%	16.2%	2.69×	2.30
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score exactly 2	24.5%	23.3%	24.6%	0.95×	4.30
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score exactly 1	18.1%	18.9%	36.9%	0.51×	5.30
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score exactly 0	6.7%	10.3%	22.5%	0.46×	9.73

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers leading at HT	50.4%	47.3%	—	—	2.11
Draw at HT	31.8%	33.6%	—	—	2.98
Watford leading at HT	17.9%	15.7%	—	—	6.38

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers -1: 1	44.4%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Wolverhampton Wanderers -1: 2	36.0%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Wolverhampton Wanderers -1: X	19.6%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (0:1)	44.4%	42.7%	19.3%	2.21×	2.34
Watford (0:1)	36.0%	37.3%	56.5%	0.66×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	19.6%	17.8%	24.2%	0.73×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (0:2)	55.6%	62.7%	80.7%	0.78×	1.60
Wolverhampton Wanderers (0:2)	26.2%	23.7%	8.1%	2.93×	4.23
Draw (0:2)	18.3%	15.3%	11.3%	1.35×	6.53

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (0:3)	73.8%	78.0%	91.9%	0.85×	1.28
Wolverhampton Wanderers (0:3)	13.2%	10.0%	3.4%	2.99×	9.97
Draw (0:3)	12.9%	10.0%	4.8%	2.08×	9.97

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (0:4)	86.8%	91.9%	96.6%	0.95×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	7.5%	4.7%	2.4%	1.94×	21.45
Wolverhampton Wanderers (0:4)	5.8%	4.6%	1.0%	4.49×	21.60

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (1:0)	82.5%	81.4%	71.0%	1.15×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	9.9%	6.9%	17.3%	0.40×	14.43
Watford (1:0)	7.6%	6.9%	11.9%	0.58×	14.46

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers (2:0)	92.4%	94.0%	88.1%	1.07×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.0%	6.4%	8.7%	0.74×	15.55
Watford (2:0)	2.6%	2.3%	3.3%	0.69×	44.34

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	52.0%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	20.6%	24.2%	—	—	4.13

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to concede	75.7%	75.9%	69.4%	1.09×	1.32
Wolverhampton Wanderers clean sheet	24.3%	24.1%	30.6%	0.79×	4.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers clean sheet in 1st half	56.8%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Wolverhampton Wanderers to concede in 1st half	43.2%	37.6%	—	—	2.66

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 6.5 corners	79.8%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 2.5 corners	71.7%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 5.5 corners	70.4%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 4.5 corners	58.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 3.5 corners	56.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 3.5 corners	43.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 4.5 corners	41.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 5.5 corners	29.6%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 2.5 corners	28.3%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 6.5 corners	20.2%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 0.5 goals	93.3%	92.3%	77.5%	1.19×	1.08
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 1.5 goals	75.2%	77.7%	40.6%	1.91×	1.29
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 3.5 goals	71.4%	74.2%	94.8%	0.78×	1.35
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 2.5 goals	50.6%	53.2%	16.2%	3.30×	1.88
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 2.5 goals	49.4%	46.8%	83.8%	0.56×	2.14
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 3.5 goals	28.6%	25.8%	5.2%	5.00×	3.88
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 1.5 goals	24.8%	22.3%	59.4%	0.38×	4.49
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 0.5 goals	6.7%	7.7%	22.5%	0.34×	12.93

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 0.5 in 1st half	68.7%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 1.5 in 1st half	67.6%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Wolverhampton Wanderers over 1.5 in 1st half	32.4%	31.0%	—	—	3.22
Wolverhampton Wanderers under 0.5 in 1st half	31.3%	30.9%	—	—	3.23

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	51.5%	51.6%	48.7%	1.06×	1.94
Watford (home no bet)	48.5%	48.4%	51.3%	0.94×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers even goals	50.2%	50.6%	50.5%	1.00×	1.98
Wolverhampton Wanderers odd goals	49.8%	49.4%	49.5%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	20.5%	24.2%	—	—	4.14
HT 0-0	17.9%	18.8%	—	—	5.32
Any other HT score	13.0%	11.0%	—	—	9.10
HT 2-0	12.0%	11.0%	—	—	9.11
HT 1-1	11.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.11
HT 0-1	9.9%	7.1%	—	—	14.13
HT 2-1	6.8%	7.1%	—	—	14.18
HT 1-2	3.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.82
HT 0-2	2.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.86
HT 2-2	1.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.93

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers at HT / Wolverhampton Wanderers at FT	43.3%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Draw at HT / Wolverhampton Wanderers at FT	16.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	9.2%	6.1%	—	—	16.53
Watford at HT / Watford at FT	9.3%	6.1%	—	—	16.53
Draw at HT / Watford at FT	6.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.62
Wolverhampton Wanderers at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.79
Watford at HT / Wolverhampton Wanderers at FT	4.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Watford at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Wolverhampton Wanderers at HT / Watford at FT	2.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score last	64.2%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Watford to score last	33.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
No goal scored	2.4%	4.3%	—	—	23.46

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.6%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Wolverhampton Wanderers to lead by 1 at any time	78.9%	78.5%	—	—	1.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	67.8%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Wolverhampton Wanderers to lead by 2 at any time	53.9%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Watford to lead by 1 at any time	41.2%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	35.8%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Wolverhampton Wanderers to lead by 3 at any time	31.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Watford to lead by 2 at any time	14.8%	10.5%	—	—	9.57
Watford to lead by 3 at any time	4.5%	1.6%	—	—	61.94

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers most corners	52.0%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Watford most corners	36.6%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	11.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	80.2%	83.5%	72.8%	1.15×	1.20
1-5 goals	74.4%	72.4%	88.8%	0.82×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.1%	69.0%	70.2%	0.98×	1.45
3-6 goals	65.6%	69.0%	47.1%	1.47×	1.45
1-4 goals	58.3%	59.2%	83.4%	0.71×	1.69
3-5 goals	54.6%	53.2%	44.5%	1.19×	1.88
2-4 goals	53.1%	53.2%	64.8%	0.82×	1.88
4-6 goals	46.7%	48.7%	22.4%	2.17×	2.06
1-3 goals	38.8%	39.2%	69.1%	0.57×	2.55
3-4 goals	38.5%	39.2%	39.1%	1.00×	2.55
4-5 goals	35.6%	39.2%	19.8%	1.97×	2.55
2-3 goals	33.5%	35.4%	50.4%	0.70×	2.83
5-6 goals	27.1%	30.2%	8.1%	3.74×	3.31
1-2 goals	19.8%	18.6%	44.4%	0.42×	5.37
7+ goals	12.2%	14.9%	1.4%	10.82×	6.73

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers never behind	56.5%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Watford never behind	18.8%	18.8%	—	—	5.32

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.5%	50.8%	49.4%	1.03×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.5%	49.2%	50.6%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	51.8%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	48.2%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.9%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.1%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.6%	95.5%	92.7%	1.03×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	92.4%	92.3%	74.1%	1.25×	1.08
Over 2.5 goals	77.8%	77.4%	48.4%	1.60×	1.29
Under 5.5 goals	76.7%	77.4%	96.0%	0.81×	1.29
Under 4.5 goals	60.7%	61.7%	90.6%	0.68×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	58.9%	58.8%	23.7%	2.48×	1.70
Under 3.5 goals	41.1%	41.2%	76.3%	0.54×	2.43
Over 4.5 goals	39.3%	38.3%	9.4%	4.09×	2.61
Over 5.5 goals	23.3%	22.6%	4.0%	5.73×	4.42
Under 2.5 goals	22.2%	22.6%	51.6%	0.44×	4.42
Under 1.5 goals	7.6%	7.7%	25.9%	0.30×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	2.4%	4.5%	7.3%	0.62×	22.25

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	91.1%	92.5%	65.1%	1.42×	1.08
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	86.3%	86.7%	98.6%	0.88×	1.15
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	72.7%	72.6%	31.5%	2.31×	1.38
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	72.3%	72.6%	95.8%	0.76×	1.38
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	51.1%	51.8%	89.1%	0.58×	1.93
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	48.9%	48.2%	10.9%	4.41×	2.07
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	27.7%	27.4%	4.2%	6.56×	3.65
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	27.3%	27.4%	68.5%	0.40×	3.65
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	13.7%	13.3%	1.4%	9.40×	7.54
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	8.9%	7.5%	34.9%	0.22×	13.26

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	82.1%	86.4%	—	—	1.16
Under 2.5 in 1st half	75.0%	71.0%	—	—	1.41
Over 1.5 in 1st half	51.7%	56.1%	—	—	1.78
Under 1.5 in 1st half	48.3%	43.9%	—	—	2.28
Over 2.5 in 1st half	25.0%	29.0%	—	—	3.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	17.9%	13.6%	—	—	7.33

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	90.6%	88.9%	—	—	1.13
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	69.1%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	57.3%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	42.7%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	30.9%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	9.4%	11.1%	—	—	9.00

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford not to score in both halves	75.3%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Wolverhampton Wanderers to score in both halves	54.0%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Wolverhampton Wanderers not to score in both halves	46.0%	43.4%	—	—	2.30
Watford to score in both halves	24.7%	21.8%	—	—	4.58

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	71.4%	66.2%	54.2%	1.22×	1.51
Only Wolverhampton Wanderers scores	21.9%	22.3%	23.4%	0.96×	4.48
Only Watford scores	4.3%	4.6%	15.3%	0.30×	21.77
Neither team scores	2.4%	4.6%	7.3%	0.63×	21.86

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	23.3%	22.6%	4.0%	5.73×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	19.5%	17.4%	14.4%	1.21×	5.73
Exactly 3 goals	19.0%	17.4%	24.7%	0.71×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	16.1%	17.4%	5.5%	3.17×	5.73
Exactly 2 goals	14.6%	12.1%	25.8%	0.47×	8.28
Exactly 1 goals	5.2%	7.6%	18.7%	0.41×	13.10
Exactly 0 goals	2.4%	4.4%	7.3%	0.60×	22.70

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	69.1%	58.9%	—	—	1.70
1 goal in 2nd half	21.4%	23.0%	—	—	4.35
No goals in 2nd half	9.4%	10.6%	—	—	9.48

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford not to win both halves	96.3%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Wolverhampton Wanderers not to win both halves	73.0%	72.8%	—	—	1.37
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win both halves	27.0%	27.2%	—	—	3.67
Watford to win both halves	3.7%	2.8%	—	—	35.48

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win either half	76.6%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Watford to win neither half	65.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Watford to win either half	34.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win neither half	23.4%	20.4%	—	—	4.89

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford not to win to nil	95.7%	96.1%	84.7%	1.13×	1.04
Wolverhampton Wanderers not to win to nil	78.1%	78.0%	76.6%	1.02×	1.28
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win to nil	21.9%	22.0%	23.4%	0.94×	4.55
Watford to win to nil	4.3%	3.9%	15.3%	0.25×	25.73

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers by 3+	26.2%	27.8%	8.1%	3.44×	3.60
Wolverhampton Wanderers by 1	19.6%	17.0%	24.2%	0.70×	5.90
Wolverhampton Wanderers by 2	18.3%	17.0%	11.3%	1.49×	5.90
Draw	18.5%	17.0%	27.6%	0.61×	5.90
Watford by 1	9.9%	7.3%	17.3%	0.42×	13.79
Watford by 2	5.0%	7.2%	8.7%	0.83×	13.81
Watford by 3+	2.6%	2.7%	3.3%	0.83×	37.05