Alex Michelsen v Daniel Merida — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 4 September 2026 · ATP · 2026

ATP Tour results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:04

Alex Michelsen

16:30

Daniel Merida

AI prediction

serve-hold No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Alex Michelsen win

49.9%

Draw

0.0%

Daniel Merida win

50.1%

50050

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
serve-hold	50050	21.22–21.23	1-3 19%	50%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Deciding set 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Match decided before the last set	62.5%	62.4%	96.8%	0.64×	1.60
Match to reach a 5th set	37.5%	35.2%	3.2%	10.87×	2.84

First set 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Daniel Merida to win the first set	50.0%	50.5%	50.6%	1.00×	1.98
Alex Michelsen to win the first set	50.0%	49.5%	49.4%	1.00×	2.02

First set / match 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Daniel Merida first set and match	34.4%	35.1%	40.7%	0.86×	2.85
Alex Michelsen first set and match	34.3%	35.1%	39.4%	0.89×	2.85
Alex Michelsen first set, Daniel Merida match	15.6%	30.3%	10.0%	3.02×	3.30
Daniel Merida first set, Alex Michelsen match	15.6%	30.3%	9.9%	3.05×	3.30

Games handicap 36

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Daniel Merida +9.5 games	96.3%	95.6%	97.9%	0.98×	1.05
Alex Michelsen +9.5 games	96.3%	95.6%	98.0%	0.98×	1.05
Daniel Merida +8.5 games	94.4%	87.5%	95.9%	0.91×	1.14
Alex Michelsen +8.5 games	94.4%	87.5%	95.8%	0.91×	1.14
Daniel Merida +7.5 games	91.9%	87.5%	93.0%	0.94×	1.14
Alex Michelsen +7.5 games	91.8%	87.5%	93.4%	0.94×	1.14
Daniel Merida +6.5 games	88.6%	80.3%	88.1%	0.91×	1.25
Alex Michelsen +6.5 games	88.5%	80.3%	88.6%	0.91×	1.25
Daniel Merida +5.5 games	84.6%	74.5%	80.4%	0.93×	1.34
Alex Michelsen +5.5 games	84.5%	74.5%	82.6%	0.90×	1.34
Daniel Merida +4.5 games	79.7%	69.9%	72.8%	0.96×	1.43
Alex Michelsen +4.5 games	79.6%	69.9%	74.7%	0.94×	1.43
Daniel Merida +3.5 games	74.1%	65.2%	65.2%	1.00×	1.54
Alex Michelsen +3.5 games	74.0%	65.2%	66.5%	0.98×	1.54
Daniel Merida +2.5 games	67.8%	61.1%	59.5%	1.03×	1.64
Alex Michelsen +2.5 games	67.6%	61.1%	59.1%	1.03×	1.64
Daniel Merida +1.5 games	60.8%	57.6%	55.1%	1.04×	1.74
Alex Michelsen +1.5 games	60.6%	57.6%	54.1%	1.06×	1.74
Daniel Merida −1.5 games	39.4%	42.4%	45.9%	0.93×	2.36
Alex Michelsen −1.5 games	39.2%	42.4%	44.9%	0.95×	2.36
Daniel Merida −2.5 games	32.4%	38.9%	40.9%	0.95×	2.57
Alex Michelsen −2.5 games	32.2%	38.9%	40.5%	0.96×	2.57
Daniel Merida −3.5 games	26.0%	34.8%	33.5%	1.04×	2.87
Alex Michelsen −3.5 games	25.9%	34.8%	34.8%	1.00×	2.87
Daniel Merida −4.5 games	20.4%	30.1%	25.3%	1.19×	3.33
Alex Michelsen −4.5 games	20.3%	30.1%	27.2%	1.11×	3.33
Alex Michelsen −5.5 games	15.4%	25.5%	19.6%	1.30×	3.93
Daniel Merida −5.5 games	15.5%	25.5%	17.4%	1.46×	3.93
Daniel Merida −6.5 games	11.5%	19.7%	11.4%	1.73×	5.08
Alex Michelsen −6.5 games	11.4%	19.7%	11.9%	1.65×	5.08
Alex Michelsen −7.5 games	8.1%	12.5%	7.0%	1.79×	7.97
Daniel Merida −7.5 games	8.2%	12.5%	6.6%	1.89×	7.97
Alex Michelsen −8.5 games	5.6%	12.5%	4.1%	3.03×	7.98
Daniel Merida −8.5 games	5.6%	12.5%	4.2%	3.01×	7.98
Alex Michelsen −9.5 games	3.7%	4.4%	2.1%	2.10×	22.88
Daniel Merida −9.5 games	3.7%	4.4%	2.0%	2.13×	22.88

Match winner 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Daniel Merida to win	50.1%	52.3%	50.7%	1.03×	1.91
Alex Michelsen to win	49.9%	47.7%	49.3%	0.97×	2.09

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of games	50.0%	50.5%	49.7%	1.02×	1.98
Odd number of games	50.0%	49.5%	50.3%	0.99×	2.02

Set handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Daniel Merida +3.5 sets	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	0.98×	1.02
Alex Michelsen +3.5 sets	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	0.98×	1.02
Daniel Merida +2.5 sets	87.5%	77.4%	96.2%	0.81×	1.29
Alex Michelsen +2.5 sets	87.5%	77.4%	97.0%	0.80×	1.29
Daniel Merida +1.5 sets	68.8%	61.5%	67.6%	0.91×	1.63
Alex Michelsen +1.5 sets	68.7%	61.4%	66.3%	0.93×	1.63
Daniel Merida −1.5 sets	31.3%	38.6%	33.8%	1.14×	2.59
Alex Michelsen −1.5 sets	31.2%	38.5%	32.4%	1.19×	2.59
Daniel Merida −2.5 sets	12.5%	22.6%	3.0%	7.42×	4.43
Alex Michelsen −2.5 sets	12.5%	22.6%	3.8%	5.92×	4.43
Alex Michelsen −3.5 sets	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	52.99×	58.93
Daniel Merida −3.5 sets	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	52.99×	58.93

Set score 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Daniel Merida to win 3-1	18.8%	19.0%	3.0%	6.32×	5.26
Daniel Merida to win 3-2	18.8%	19.0%	1.4%	13.20×	5.26
Alex Michelsen to win 3-2	18.7%	19.0%	1.8%	10.42×	5.26
Alex Michelsen to win 3-1	18.7%	19.0%	2.1%	8.86×	5.26
Daniel Merida to win 3-0	12.5%	18.3%	3.0%	6.03×	5.46
Alex Michelsen to win 3-0	12.5%	18.3%	3.8%	4.81×	5.46

Straight sets 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
At least one set dropped	75.0%	66.9%	93.2%	0.72×	1.50
Match in straight sets	25.0%	28.7%	6.8%	4.21×	3.48
Daniel Merida in straight sets	12.5%	21.1%	3.0%	6.93×	4.74
Alex Michelsen in straight sets	12.5%	21.1%	3.8%	5.53×	4.74

Total games 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 50.5 games	77.9%	74.4%	98.4%	0.76×	1.35
Over 34.5 games	77.7%	74.3%	12.1%	6.13×	1.35
Over 36.5 games	71.7%	73.6%	8.6%	8.52×	1.36
Under 48.5 games	70.9%	73.6%	97.8%	0.75×	1.36
Over 38.5 games	65.9%	66.2%	7.0%	9.48×	1.51
Under 46.5 games	64.0%	60.6%	97.1%	0.62×	1.65
Over 39.5 games	62.2%	60.6%	6.1%	9.96×	1.65
Under 45.5 games	60.8%	60.6%	96.9%	0.63×	1.65
Over 40.5 games	58.5%	57.5%	5.5%	10.44×	1.74
Under 44.5 games	56.9%	57.5%	96.5%	0.60×	1.74
Over 41.5 games	54.4%	52.0%	5.0%	10.35×	1.92
Under 43.5 games	53.1%	52.0%	96.2%	0.54×	1.92
Over 42.5 games	50.5%	52.0%	4.3%	12.12×	1.92
Under 42.5 games	49.5%	48.0%	95.7%	0.50×	2.08
Over 43.5 games	46.9%	48.0%	3.8%	12.60×	2.08
Under 41.5 games	45.6%	48.0%	95.0%	0.51×	2.08
Over 44.5 games	43.1%	42.5%	3.5%	12.18×	2.35
Under 40.5 games	41.5%	42.5%	94.5%	0.45×	2.35
Over 45.5 games	39.3%	39.4%	3.1%	12.57×	2.54
Under 39.5 games	37.8%	39.4%	93.9%	0.42×	2.54
Over 46.5 games	36.0%	39.4%	2.9%	13.53×	2.54
Under 38.5 games	34.1%	33.8%	93.0%	0.36×	2.95
Over 48.5 games	29.1%	26.4%	2.2%	11.76×	3.79
Under 36.5 games	28.3%	26.4%	91.4%	0.29×	3.79
Under 34.5 games	22.3%	25.7%	87.9%	0.29×	3.90
Over 50.5 games	22.1%	25.6%	1.6%	16.02×	3.90

Total sets 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 4 sets	37.5%	35.2%	5.1%	6.86×	2.84
Exactly 5 sets	37.5%	35.2%	3.2%	10.87×	2.84
Exactly 3 sets	25.0%	28.8%	37.5%	0.77×	3.47

Alex Michelsen v Daniel Merida — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

What the model said

All markets

Cookies on betaider

Sport

Tennis sections

Preferences

Match