Alexander Bublik v Tommy Paul — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 4 September 2026 · ATP · 2026
ATP Tour results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
serve-hold No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Alexander Bublik win
31.4%
Draw
0.0%
Tommy Paul win
68.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| serve-hold | 19.62–22.01 | 1-3 26% | 51% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
Deciding set 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match decided before the last set | 65.6% | 68.2% | 96.8% | 0.71× | 1.47 |
| Match to reach a 5th set | 34.4% | 30.8% | 3.2% | 9.53× | 3.25 |
First set 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Paul to win the first set | 60.2% | 58.0% | 50.6% | 1.15× | 1.72 |
| Alexander Bublik to win the first set | 39.8% | 42.0% | 49.4% | 0.85× | 2.38 |
First set / match 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Paul first set and match | 49.6% | 49.6% | 40.7% | 1.22× | 2.02 |
| Alexander Bublik first set, Tommy Paul match | 19.1% | 30.5% | 10.0% | 3.04× | 3.28 |
| Alexander Bublik first set and match | 20.7% | 28.6% | 39.4% | 0.73× | 3.50 |
| Tommy Paul first set, Alexander Bublik match | 10.6% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 1.18× | 8.55 |
Games handicap 36
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Paul +9.5 games | 98.8% | 95.6% | 97.9% | 0.98× | 1.05 |
| Tommy Paul +8.5 games | 98.0% | 95.6% | 95.9% | 1.00× | 1.05 |
| Tommy Paul +7.5 games | 96.8% | 95.6% | 93.0% | 1.03× | 1.05 |
| Tommy Paul +6.5 games | 95.2% | 95.6% | 88.1% | 1.09× | 1.05 |
| Tommy Paul +5.5 games | 93.0% | 87.5% | 80.4% | 1.09× | 1.14 |
| Alexander Bublik +9.5 games | 91.3% | 87.5% | 98.0% | 0.89× | 1.14 |
| Tommy Paul +4.5 games | 90.2% | 87.5% | 72.8% | 1.20× | 1.14 |
| Alexander Bublik +8.5 games | 87.7% | 80.3% | 95.8% | 0.84× | 1.25 |
| Tommy Paul +3.5 games | 86.6% | 80.3% | 65.2% | 1.23× | 1.25 |
| Alexander Bublik +7.5 games | 83.1% | 74.5% | 93.4% | 0.80× | 1.34 |
| Tommy Paul +2.5 games | 82.1% | 74.5% | 59.5% | 1.25× | 1.34 |
| Alexander Bublik +6.5 games | 77.7% | 69.9% | 88.6% | 0.79× | 1.43 |
| Tommy Paul +1.5 games | 76.7% | 69.9% | 55.1% | 1.27× | 1.43 |
| Alexander Bublik +5.5 games | 71.6% | 65.1% | 82.6% | 0.79× | 1.54 |
| Alexander Bublik +4.5 games | 65.0% | 57.6% | 74.7% | 0.77× | 1.74 |
| Alexander Bublik +3.5 games | 57.8% | 53.6% | 66.5% | 0.81× | 1.87 |
| Tommy Paul −1.5 games | 57.2% | 53.6% | 45.9% | 1.17× | 1.87 |
| Alexander Bublik +2.5 games | 50.3% | 50.7% | 59.1% | 0.86× | 1.97 |
| Tommy Paul −2.5 games | 49.7% | 49.3% | 40.9% | 1.21× | 2.03 |
| Alexander Bublik +1.5 games | 42.8% | 46.4% | 54.1% | 0.86× | 2.15 |
| Tommy Paul −3.5 games | 42.2% | 46.4% | 33.5% | 1.39× | 2.15 |
| Tommy Paul −4.5 games | 35.0% | 42.4% | 25.3% | 1.67× | 2.36 |
| Tommy Paul −5.5 games | 28.4% | 34.9% | 17.4% | 2.00× | 2.87 |
| Alexander Bublik −1.5 games | 23.3% | 30.1% | 44.9% | 0.67× | 3.32 |
| Tommy Paul −6.5 games | 22.3% | 30.1% | 11.4% | 2.64× | 3.32 |
| Alexander Bublik −2.5 games | 17.9% | 25.5% | 40.5% | 0.63× | 3.92 |
| Tommy Paul −7.5 games | 16.9% | 25.5% | 6.6% | 3.84× | 3.92 |
| Alexander Bublik −3.5 games | 13.4% | 19.7% | 34.8% | 0.57× | 5.08 |
| Tommy Paul −8.5 games | 12.3% | 19.7% | 4.2% | 4.73× | 5.08 |
| Alexander Bublik −4.5 games | 9.8% | 12.5% | 27.2% | 0.46× | 7.97 |
| Tommy Paul −9.5 games | 8.7% | 12.5% | 2.0% | 6.12× | 7.97 |
| Alexander Bublik −5.5 games | 7.0% | 12.5% | 19.6% | 0.64× | 7.98 |
| Alexander Bublik −6.5 games | 4.8% | 4.4% | 11.9% | 0.37× | 22.88 |
| Alexander Bublik −7.5 games | 3.2% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 0.62× | 22.89 |
| Alexander Bublik −8.5 games | 2.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 1.06× | 22.90 |
| Alexander Bublik −9.5 games | 1.2% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 2.10× | 22.90 |
Match winner 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Paul to win | 68.6% | 61.7% | 50.7% | 1.22× | 1.62 |
| Alexander Bublik to win | 31.4% | 38.3% | 49.3% | 0.78× | 2.61 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even number of games | 50.0% | 50.5% | 49.7% | 1.02× | 1.98 |
| Odd number of games | 50.0% | 49.5% | 50.3% | 0.99× | 2.02 |
Set handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Paul +3.5 sets | 100.0% | 98.3% | 100.0% | 0.98× | 1.02 |
| Alexander Bublik +3.5 sets | 100.0% | 98.3% | 100.0% | 0.98× | 1.02 |
| Tommy Paul +2.5 sets | 93.7% | 86.1% | 96.2% | 0.90× | 1.16 |
| Tommy Paul +1.5 sets | 82.3% | 75.0% | 67.6% | 1.11× | 1.33 |
| Alexander Bublik +2.5 sets | 78.2% | 72.4% | 97.0% | 0.75× | 1.38 |
| Alexander Bublik +1.5 sets | 52.1% | 55.5% | 66.3% | 0.84× | 1.80 |
| Tommy Paul −1.5 sets | 47.9% | 44.5% | 33.8% | 1.32× | 2.25 |
| Tommy Paul −2.5 sets | 21.8% | 27.6% | 3.0% | 9.07× | 3.63 |
| Alexander Bublik −1.5 sets | 17.7% | 25.0% | 32.4% | 0.77× | 4.00 |
| Alexander Bublik −2.5 sets | 6.3% | 13.9% | 3.8% | 3.65× | 7.19 |
| Alexander Bublik −3.5 sets | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 52.99× | 58.93 |
| Tommy Paul −3.5 sets | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 52.99× | 58.93 |
Set score 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Paul to win 3-1 | 26.1% | 21.7% | 3.0% | 7.22× | 4.60 |
| Tommy Paul to win 3-0 | 21.8% | 20.0% | 3.0% | 6.59× | 4.99 |
| Tommy Paul to win 3-2 | 20.7% | 20.0% | 1.4% | 13.90× | 4.99 |
| Alexander Bublik to win 3-2 | 13.7% | 18.4% | 1.8% | 10.06× | 5.45 |
| Alexander Bublik to win 3-1 | 11.4% | 18.3% | 2.1% | 8.53× | 5.46 |
| Alexander Bublik to win 3-0 | 6.3% | 12.1% | 3.8% | 3.17× | 8.28 |
Straight sets 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least one set dropped | 71.9% | 66.1% | 93.2% | 0.71× | 1.51 |
| Match in straight sets | 28.1% | 28.8% | 6.8% | 4.23× | 3.47 |
| Tommy Paul in straight sets | 21.8% | 25.9% | 3.0% | 8.51× | 3.86 |
| Alexander Bublik in straight sets | 6.3% | 12.9% | 3.8% | 3.38× | 7.77 |
Total games 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 50.5 games | 80.5% | 79.1% | 98.4% | 0.80× | 1.27 |
| Over 34.5 games | 74.6% | 73.7% | 12.1% | 6.07× | 1.36 |
| Under 48.5 games | 73.9% | 73.7% | 97.8% | 0.75× | 1.36 |
| Over 36.5 games | 68.2% | 66.2% | 8.6% | 7.65× | 1.51 |
| Under 46.5 games | 67.3% | 66.2% | 97.1% | 0.68× | 1.51 |
| Under 45.5 games | 64.2% | 60.6% | 96.9% | 0.63× | 1.65 |
| Over 38.5 games | 62.2% | 60.6% | 7.0% | 8.68× | 1.65 |
| Under 44.5 games | 60.5% | 60.6% | 96.5% | 0.63× | 1.65 |
| Over 39.5 games | 58.4% | 57.5% | 6.1% | 9.45× | 1.74 |
| Under 43.5 games | 56.8% | 57.5% | 96.2% | 0.60× | 1.74 |
| Over 40.5 games | 54.6% | 52.0% | 5.5% | 9.44× | 1.92 |
| Under 42.5 games | 53.3% | 52.0% | 95.7% | 0.54× | 1.92 |
| Over 41.5 games | 50.6% | 52.0% | 5.0% | 10.34× | 1.92 |
| Under 41.5 games | 49.4% | 48.0% | 95.0% | 0.51× | 2.08 |
| Over 42.5 games | 46.7% | 48.0% | 4.3% | 11.19× | 2.08 |
| Under 40.5 games | 45.4% | 48.0% | 94.5% | 0.51× | 2.08 |
| Over 43.5 games | 43.2% | 42.5% | 3.8% | 11.15× | 2.35 |
| Under 39.5 games | 41.6% | 42.5% | 93.9% | 0.45× | 2.35 |
| Over 44.5 games | 39.5% | 39.4% | 3.5% | 11.30× | 2.54 |
| Under 38.5 games | 37.8% | 39.4% | 93.0% | 0.42× | 2.54 |
| Over 45.5 games | 35.8% | 39.4% | 3.1% | 12.56× | 2.54 |
| Over 46.5 games | 32.7% | 33.8% | 2.9% | 11.61× | 2.96 |
| Under 36.5 games | 31.8% | 33.8% | 91.4% | 0.37× | 2.96 |
| Over 48.5 games | 26.1% | 26.3% | 2.2% | 11.75× | 3.80 |
| Under 34.5 games | 25.4% | 26.3% | 87.9% | 0.30× | 3.80 |
| Over 50.5 games | 19.5% | 20.9% | 1.6% | 13.08× | 4.77 |
Total sets 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 4 sets | 37.4% | 35.2% | 5.1% | 6.86× | 2.84 |
| Exactly 5 sets | 34.4% | 30.8% | 3.2% | 9.53× | 3.25 |
| Exactly 3 sets | 28.1% | 29.8% | 37.5% | 0.79× | 3.36 |