Aryna Sabalenka v Kamilla Rakhimova — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 4 September 2026 · WTA · 2026

WTA Tour results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:04

Aryna Sabalenka

11:00

Kamilla Rakhimova

AI prediction

serve-hold No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Aryna Sabalenka win

91.1%

Draw

0.0%

Kamilla Rakhimova win

8.9%

9109

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
serve-hold	9109	13.20–8.14	2-0 67%	41%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Deciding set 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Match decided before the last set	70.0%	69.1%	66.1%	1.05×	1.45
Match to reach a 3rd set	30.0%	30.0%	33.9%	0.88×	3.34

First set 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aryna Sabalenka to win the first set	81.6%	81.0%	50.7%	1.60×	1.24
Kamilla Rakhimova to win the first set	18.4%	19.0%	49.3%	0.39×	5.26

First set / match 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aryna Sabalenka first set and match	78.8%	74.6%	42.5%	1.75×	1.34
Kamilla Rakhimova first set, Aryna Sabalenka match	12.3%	11.7%	9.6%	1.22×	8.55
Kamilla Rakhimova first set and match	6.1%	9.0%	39.7%	0.23×	11.15
Aryna Sabalenka first set, Kamilla Rakhimova match	2.8%	5.5%	8.2%	0.67×	18.05

Games handicap 36

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aryna Sabalenka +9.5 games	100.0%	95.6%	97.6%	0.98×	1.05
Aryna Sabalenka +6.5 games	99.5%	95.6%	83.7%	1.14×	1.05
Aryna Sabalenka +7.5 games	99.8%	95.6%	90.2%	1.06×	1.05
Aryna Sabalenka +8.5 games	99.9%	95.6%	94.4%	1.01×	1.05
Aryna Sabalenka +5.5 games	99.0%	95.6%	76.4%	1.25×	1.05
Aryna Sabalenka +4.5 games	98.3%	95.6%	70.0%	1.37×	1.05
Aryna Sabalenka +3.5 games	97.3%	95.6%	63.5%	1.51×	1.05
Aryna Sabalenka +2.5 games	96.0%	95.6%	59.2%	1.61×	1.05
Aryna Sabalenka +1.5 games	94.1%	87.5%	55.9%	1.57×	1.14
Kamilla Rakhimova +9.5 games	88.1%	80.3%	97.2%	0.83×	1.25
Kamilla Rakhimova +8.5 games	81.2%	74.5%	94.2%	0.79×	1.34
Aryna Sabalenka −1.5 games	80.0%	74.5%	48.3%	1.54×	1.34
Aryna Sabalenka −2.5 games	74.7%	65.2%	45.0%	1.45×	1.54
Kamilla Rakhimova +7.5 games	71.8%	65.1%	89.2%	0.73×	1.54
Aryna Sabalenka −3.5 games	68.4%	61.1%	40.2%	1.52×	1.64
Kamilla Rakhimova +6.5 games	60.7%	57.6%	82.1%	0.70×	1.74
Aryna Sabalenka −4.5 games	60.1%	57.6%	33.6%	1.72×	1.74
Aryna Sabalenka −5.5 games	50.5%	50.7%	25.7%	1.97×	1.97
Kamilla Rakhimova +5.5 games	49.5%	49.3%	74.3%	0.66×	2.03
Kamilla Rakhimova +4.5 games	39.9%	42.4%	66.4%	0.64×	2.36
Aryna Sabalenka −6.5 games	39.3%	42.4%	17.9%	2.37×	2.36
Kamilla Rakhimova +3.5 games	31.6%	38.9%	59.8%	0.65×	2.57
Aryna Sabalenka −7.5 games	28.2%	34.9%	10.8%	3.24×	2.87
Kamilla Rakhimova +2.5 games	25.3%	34.8%	55.0%	0.63×	2.87
Kamilla Rakhimova +1.5 games	20.0%	25.5%	51.7%	0.49×	3.92
Aryna Sabalenka −8.5 games	18.9%	25.5%	5.8%	4.43×	3.92
Aryna Sabalenka −9.5 games	11.9%	19.7%	2.8%	6.97×	5.08
Kamilla Rakhimova −1.5 games	5.9%	12.5%	44.1%	0.28×	7.98
Kamilla Rakhimova −2.5 games	4.0%	4.4%	40.8%	0.11×	22.88
Kamilla Rakhimova −3.5 games	2.7%	4.4%	36.5%	0.12×	22.89
Kamilla Rakhimova −4.5 games	1.7%	4.4%	30.0%	0.15×	22.90
Kamilla Rakhimova −5.5 games	1.0%	4.4%	23.6%	0.19×	22.91
Kamilla Rakhimova −6.5 games	0.5%	4.4%	16.3%	0.27×	22.91
Kamilla Rakhimova −7.5 games	0.2%	4.4%	9.8%	0.44×	22.91
Kamilla Rakhimova −8.5 games	0.1%	4.4%	5.6%	0.78×	22.91
Kamilla Rakhimova −9.5 games	0.0%	4.4%	2.4%	1.81×	22.91

Match winner 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aryna Sabalenka to win	91.1%	89.3%	52.1%	1.72×	1.12
Kamilla Rakhimova to win	8.9%	10.7%	47.9%	0.22×	9.37

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of games	49.7%	50.5%	50.1%	1.01×	1.98
Even number of games	50.3%	49.5%	49.9%	0.99×	2.02

Set handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Kamilla Rakhimova +2.5 sets	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	0.98×	1.02
Aryna Sabalenka +2.5 sets	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	0.98×	1.02
Aryna Sabalenka +1.5 sets	96.6%	98.3%	68.4%	1.44×	1.02
Aryna Sabalenka −1.5 sets	66.6%	61.4%	34.6%	1.78×	1.63
Kamilla Rakhimova +1.5 sets	33.4%	38.6%	65.4%	0.59×	2.59
Kamilla Rakhimova −1.5 sets	3.4%	1.7%	31.6%	0.05×	58.44
Aryna Sabalenka −2.5 sets	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	78.68×	58.93
Kamilla Rakhimova −2.5 sets	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	78.68×	58.93

Set score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aryna Sabalenka to win 2-0	66.6%	64.8%	34.6%	1.87×	1.54
Aryna Sabalenka to win 2-1	24.5%	20.1%	17.5%	1.15×	4.98
Kamilla Rakhimova to win 2-1	5.5%	12.1%	16.4%	0.74×	8.29
Kamilla Rakhimova to win 2-0	3.4%	5.3%	31.6%	0.17×	18.87

Straight sets 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Match in straight sets	70.0%	67.6%	66.1%	1.02×	1.48
Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets	66.6%	67.1%	34.6%	1.94×	1.49
At least one set dropped	30.0%	35.5%	33.9%	1.05×	2.81
Kamilla Rakhimova in straight sets	3.4%	6.1%	31.6%	0.19×	16.27

Total games 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 13.5 games	98.9%	93.6%	98.0%	0.95×	1.07
Over 15.5 games	91.2%	88.8%	89.2%	1.00×	1.13
Under 29.5 games	91.0%	88.8%	86.8%	1.02×	1.13
Under 27.5 games	84.5%	79.1%	79.2%	1.00×	1.27
Under 25.5 games	77.1%	74.3%	72.0%	1.03×	1.35
Over 17.5 games	73.1%	73.6%	71.7%	1.03×	1.36
Under 24.5 games	72.9%	73.6%	68.6%	1.07×	1.36
Under 23.5 games	70.1%	73.6%	66.2%	1.11×	1.36
Under 22.5 games	65.8%	66.2%	62.3%	1.06×	1.51
Over 18.5 games	63.2%	60.6%	62.5%	0.97×	1.65
Under 21.5 games	59.2%	57.5%	57.4%	1.00×	1.74
Over 19.5 games	54.2%	52.0%	54.3%	0.96×	1.92
Under 20.5 games	53.4%	52.0%	52.8%	0.99×	1.92
Over 20.5 games	46.6%	48.0%	47.3%	1.02×	2.08
Under 19.5 games	45.8%	48.0%	45.7%	1.05×	2.08
Over 21.5 games	40.8%	42.5%	42.6%	1.00×	2.35
Under 18.5 games	36.8%	39.4%	37.5%	1.05×	2.54
Over 22.5 games	34.2%	33.8%	37.7%	0.90×	2.95
Over 23.5 games	29.9%	26.4%	33.8%	0.78×	3.79
Over 24.5 games	27.1%	26.4%	31.4%	0.84×	3.80
Under 17.5 games	26.9%	26.4%	28.3%	0.93×	3.80
Over 25.5 games	22.9%	25.7%	28.0%	0.92×	3.90
Over 27.5 games	15.5%	20.9%	20.8%	1.01×	4.78
Over 29.5 games	9.0%	11.2%	13.2%	0.85×	8.94
Under 15.5 games	8.8%	11.2%	10.8%	1.04×	8.94
Under 13.5 games	1.1%	6.4%	2.0%	3.21×	15.51

Total sets 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 sets	70.0%	69.1%	66.1%	1.05×	1.45
Exactly 3 sets	30.0%	30.0%	33.9%	0.88×	3.34

Aryna Sabalenka v Kamilla Rakhimova — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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