Luciano Darderi v Dane Sweeny — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · ATP · 2026

ATP Tour results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:04

Luciano Darderi

00:00

Dane Sweeny

AI prediction

serve-hold No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Luciano Darderi win

68.2%

Draw

0.0%

Dane Sweeny win

31.8%

68032

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
serve-hold	68032	22.00–19.67	3-1 26%	51%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Deciding set 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Match decided before the last set	65.4%	68.2%	96.8%	0.70×	1.47
Match to reach a 5th set	34.6%	30.8%	3.2%	9.54×	3.24

First set 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Luciano Darderi to win the first set	59.9%	57.8%	49.4%	1.17×	1.73
Dane Sweeny to win the first set	40.1%	42.2%	50.6%	0.83×	2.37

First set / match 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Luciano Darderi first set and match	49.2%	49.6%	39.4%	1.26×	2.02
Dane Sweeny first set, Luciano Darderi match	19.0%	30.5%	9.9%	3.07×	3.28
Dane Sweeny first set and match	21.1%	28.6%	40.7%	0.70×	3.49
Luciano Darderi first set, Dane Sweeny match	10.8%	11.7%	10.0%	1.17×	8.55

Games handicap 36

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Luciano Darderi +9.5 games	98.7%	95.6%	98.0%	0.98×	1.05
Luciano Darderi +8.5 games	97.9%	95.6%	95.8%	1.00×	1.05
Luciano Darderi +7.5 games	96.7%	95.6%	93.4%	1.02×	1.05
Luciano Darderi +6.5 games	95.1%	95.6%	88.6%	1.08×	1.05
Luciano Darderi +5.5 games	92.9%	87.5%	82.6%	1.06×	1.14
Dane Sweeny +9.5 games	91.5%	87.5%	97.9%	0.89×	1.14
Luciano Darderi +4.5 games	90.0%	80.3%	74.7%	1.08×	1.25
Dane Sweeny +8.5 games	87.9%	80.3%	95.9%	0.84×	1.25
Luciano Darderi +3.5 games	86.3%	80.3%	66.5%	1.21×	1.25
Dane Sweeny +7.5 games	83.4%	74.5%	93.0%	0.80×	1.34
Luciano Darderi +2.5 games	81.7%	74.5%	59.1%	1.26×	1.34
Dane Sweeny +6.5 games	78.1%	69.9%	88.1%	0.79×	1.43
Luciano Darderi +1.5 games	76.4%	69.9%	54.1%	1.29×	1.43
Dane Sweeny +5.5 games	72.0%	65.1%	80.4%	0.81×	1.54
Dane Sweeny +4.5 games	65.4%	61.1%	72.8%	0.84×	1.64
Dane Sweeny +3.5 games	58.3%	53.6%	65.2%	0.82×	1.87
Luciano Darderi −1.5 games	56.8%	53.6%	44.9%	1.19×	1.87
Dane Sweeny +2.5 games	50.8%	50.7%	59.5%	0.85×	1.97
Luciano Darderi −2.5 games	49.2%	49.3%	40.5%	1.22×	2.03
Dane Sweeny +1.5 games	43.2%	46.4%	55.1%	0.84×	2.15
Luciano Darderi −3.5 games	41.7%	46.4%	34.8%	1.33×	2.15
Luciano Darderi −4.5 games	34.6%	38.9%	27.2%	1.43×	2.57
Luciano Darderi −5.5 games	28.0%	34.9%	19.6%	1.78×	2.87
Dane Sweeny −1.5 games	23.7%	30.1%	45.9%	0.66×	3.32
Luciano Darderi −6.5 games	21.9%	30.1%	11.9%	2.53×	3.32
Dane Sweeny −2.5 games	18.3%	25.5%	40.9%	0.62×	3.92
Luciano Darderi −7.5 games	16.6%	25.5%	7.0%	3.63×	3.92
Dane Sweeny −3.5 games	13.7%	19.7%	33.5%	0.59×	5.08
Luciano Darderi −8.5 games	12.1%	19.7%	4.1%	4.77×	5.08
Dane Sweeny −4.5 games	10.0%	19.7%	25.3%	0.78×	5.08
Luciano Darderi −9.5 games	8.5%	12.5%	2.1%	6.03×	7.97
Dane Sweeny −5.5 games	7.1%	12.5%	17.4%	0.72×	7.98
Dane Sweeny −6.5 games	4.9%	4.4%	11.4%	0.38×	22.87
Dane Sweeny −7.5 games	3.3%	4.4%	6.6%	0.66×	22.89
Dane Sweeny −8.5 games	2.1%	4.4%	4.2%	1.05×	22.90
Dane Sweeny −9.5 games	1.3%	4.4%	2.0%	2.13×	22.90

Match winner 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Luciano Darderi to win	68.2%	61.7%	49.3%	1.25×	1.62
Dane Sweeny to win	31.8%	38.3%	50.7%	0.76×	2.61

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of games	50.0%	50.5%	49.7%	1.02×	1.98
Odd number of games	50.0%	49.5%	50.3%	0.99×	2.02

Set handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Dane Sweeny +3.5 sets	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	0.98×	1.02
Luciano Darderi +3.5 sets	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	0.98×	1.02
Luciano Darderi +2.5 sets	93.6%	86.1%	97.0%	0.89×	1.16
Luciano Darderi +1.5 sets	82.0%	75.0%	66.3%	1.13×	1.33
Dane Sweeny +2.5 sets	78.5%	72.4%	96.2%	0.75×	1.38
Dane Sweeny +1.5 sets	52.6%	55.5%	67.6%	0.82×	1.80
Luciano Darderi −1.5 sets	47.4%	44.5%	32.4%	1.38×	2.25
Luciano Darderi −2.5 sets	21.5%	27.6%	3.8%	7.24×	3.63
Dane Sweeny −1.5 sets	18.0%	25.0%	33.8%	0.74×	4.00
Dane Sweeny −2.5 sets	6.4%	13.9%	3.0%	4.57×	7.19
Luciano Darderi −3.5 sets	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	52.99×	58.93
Dane Sweeny −3.5 sets	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	52.99×	58.93

Set score 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Luciano Darderi to win 3-1	25.9%	21.7%	2.1%	10.13×	4.60
Luciano Darderi to win 3-0	21.5%	20.0%	3.8%	5.26×	4.99
Luciano Darderi to win 3-2	20.7%	20.0%	1.8%	10.98×	4.99
Dane Sweeny to win 3-2	13.9%	18.4%	1.4%	12.74×	5.45
Dane Sweeny to win 3-1	11.6%	18.3%	3.0%	6.08×	5.46
Dane Sweeny to win 3-0	6.4%	12.1%	3.0%	3.97×	8.27

Straight sets 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
At least one set dropped	72.0%	66.2%	93.2%	0.71×	1.51
Match in straight sets	28.0%	28.8%	6.8%	4.23×	3.47
Luciano Darderi in straight sets	21.5%	25.9%	3.8%	6.79×	3.86
Dane Sweeny in straight sets	6.4%	12.9%	3.0%	4.23×	7.76

Total games 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 50.5 games	80.3%	79.1%	98.4%	0.80×	1.27
Over 34.5 games	74.8%	73.7%	12.1%	6.07×	1.36
Under 48.5 games	73.8%	73.7%	97.8%	0.75×	1.36
Over 36.5 games	68.4%	66.2%	8.6%	7.65×	1.51
Under 46.5 games	67.1%	66.2%	97.1%	0.68×	1.51
Under 45.5 games	64.0%	60.6%	96.9%	0.63×	1.65
Over 38.5 games	62.4%	60.6%	7.0%	8.68×	1.65
Under 44.5 games	60.3%	60.6%	96.5%	0.63×	1.65
Over 39.5 games	58.6%	57.5%	6.1%	9.45×	1.74
Under 43.5 games	56.7%	57.5%	96.2%	0.60×	1.74
Over 40.5 games	54.8%	52.0%	5.5%	9.44×	1.92
Under 42.5 games	53.1%	52.0%	95.7%	0.54×	1.92
Over 41.5 games	50.8%	52.0%	5.0%	10.34×	1.92
Under 41.5 games	49.2%	48.0%	95.0%	0.51×	2.08
Over 42.5 games	46.9%	48.0%	4.3%	11.19×	2.08
Under 40.5 games	45.2%	48.0%	94.5%	0.51×	2.08
Over 43.5 games	43.3%	42.5%	3.8%	11.15×	2.35
Under 39.5 games	41.4%	42.5%	93.9%	0.45×	2.35
Over 44.5 games	39.7%	39.4%	3.5%	11.30×	2.54
Under 38.5 games	37.6%	39.4%	93.0%	0.42×	2.54
Over 45.5 games	36.0%	39.4%	3.1%	12.56×	2.54
Over 46.5 games	32.9%	33.8%	2.9%	11.61×	2.96
Under 36.5 games	31.6%	33.8%	91.4%	0.37×	2.96
Over 48.5 games	26.2%	26.3%	2.2%	11.75×	3.80
Under 34.5 games	25.2%	26.3%	87.9%	0.30×	3.80
Over 50.5 games	19.7%	21.0%	1.6%	13.09×	4.77

Total sets 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 4 sets	37.4%	35.2%	5.1%	6.86×	2.84
Exactly 5 sets	34.6%	30.8%	3.2%	9.54×	3.24
Exactly 3 sets	28.0%	29.7%	37.5%	0.79×	3.36

Luciano Darderi v Dane Sweeny — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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