Madison Keys v Zheng Qinwen — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · WTA · 2026

WTA Tour results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:04

Madison Keys

00:00

Zheng Qinwen

AI prediction

serve-hold No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Madison Keys win

79.5%

Draw

0.0%

Zheng Qinwen win

20.5%

80020

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
serve-hold	80020	13.25–9.86	2-0 50%	42%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Deciding set 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Match decided before the last set	58.8%	56.9%	66.1%	0.86×	1.76
Match to reach a 3rd set	41.3%	37.6%	33.9%	1.11×	2.66

First set 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Madison Keys to win the first set	70.9%	67.6%	50.7%	1.33×	1.48
Zheng Qinwen to win the first set	29.1%	32.4%	49.3%	0.66×	3.09

First set / match 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Madison Keys first set and match	64.9%	52.0%	42.5%	1.22×	1.92
Zheng Qinwen first set, Madison Keys match	14.6%	11.7%	9.6%	1.23×	8.54
Zheng Qinwen first set and match	14.5%	11.7%	39.7%	0.29×	8.54
Madison Keys first set, Zheng Qinwen match	6.0%	9.0%	8.2%	1.09×	11.15

Games handicap 36

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Madison Keys +8.5 games	99.5%	95.6%	94.4%	1.01×	1.05
Madison Keys +9.5 games	99.8%	95.6%	97.6%	0.98×	1.05
Madison Keys +7.5 games	99.0%	95.6%	90.2%	1.06×	1.05
Madison Keys +6.5 games	98.2%	95.6%	83.7%	1.14×	1.05
Madison Keys +5.5 games	96.9%	95.6%	76.4%	1.25×	1.05
Madison Keys +4.5 games	95.1%	95.6%	70.0%	1.37×	1.05
Madison Keys +3.5 games	92.7%	87.5%	63.5%	1.38×	1.14
Zheng Qinwen +9.5 games	92.7%	87.5%	97.2%	0.90×	1.14
Madison Keys +2.5 games	89.9%	80.3%	59.2%	1.36×	1.25
Zheng Qinwen +8.5 games	88.2%	80.3%	94.2%	0.85×	1.25
Madison Keys +1.5 games	86.3%	80.3%	55.9%	1.44×	1.25
Zheng Qinwen +7.5 games	81.9%	74.5%	89.2%	0.84×	1.34
Zheng Qinwen +6.5 games	74.0%	65.2%	82.1%	0.79×	1.54
Madison Keys −1.5 games	66.2%	61.1%	48.3%	1.26×	1.64
Zheng Qinwen +5.5 games	65.3%	61.1%	74.3%	0.82×	1.64
Madison Keys −2.5 games	59.3%	53.6%	45.0%	1.19×	1.87
Zheng Qinwen +4.5 games	56.6%	53.6%	66.4%	0.81×	1.87
Madison Keys −3.5 games	52.0%	50.7%	40.2%	1.26×	1.97
Zheng Qinwen +3.5 games	48.0%	49.3%	59.8%	0.83×	2.03
Madison Keys −4.5 games	43.4%	46.4%	33.6%	1.38×	2.15
Zheng Qinwen +2.5 games	40.7%	46.4%	55.0%	0.84×	2.15
Madison Keys −5.5 games	34.7%	38.9%	25.7%	1.51×	2.57
Zheng Qinwen +1.5 games	33.8%	38.9%	51.7%	0.75×	2.57
Madison Keys −6.5 games	26.0%	34.8%	17.9%	1.95×	2.87
Madison Keys −7.5 games	18.1%	25.5%	10.8%	2.37×	3.92
Zheng Qinwen −1.5 games	13.7%	19.7%	44.1%	0.45×	5.08
Madison Keys −8.5 games	11.8%	19.7%	5.8%	3.42×	5.08
Zheng Qinwen −2.5 games	10.1%	19.7%	40.8%	0.48×	5.08
Madison Keys −9.5 games	7.3%	12.5%	2.8%	4.44×	7.98
Zheng Qinwen −3.5 games	7.3%	12.5%	36.5%	0.34×	7.98
Zheng Qinwen −4.5 games	4.9%	4.4%	30.0%	0.15×	22.87
Zheng Qinwen −5.5 games	3.1%	4.4%	23.6%	0.19×	22.89
Zheng Qinwen −6.5 games	1.8%	4.4%	16.3%	0.27×	22.90
Zheng Qinwen −7.5 games	1.0%	4.4%	9.8%	0.44×	22.91
Zheng Qinwen −8.5 games	0.5%	4.4%	5.6%	0.78×	22.91
Zheng Qinwen −9.5 games	0.2%	4.4%	2.4%	1.81×	22.91

Match winner 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Madison Keys to win	79.5%	65.6%	52.1%	1.26×	1.52
Zheng Qinwen to win	20.5%	34.4%	47.9%	0.72×	2.91

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of games	49.7%	50.5%	50.1%	1.01×	1.98
Even number of games	50.3%	49.5%	49.9%	0.99×	2.02

Set handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Zheng Qinwen +2.5 sets	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	0.98×	1.02
Madison Keys +2.5 sets	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	0.98×	1.02
Madison Keys +1.5 sets	91.5%	86.0%	68.4%	1.26×	1.16
Madison Keys −1.5 sets	50.3%	55.4%	34.6%	1.60×	1.81
Zheng Qinwen +1.5 sets	49.7%	44.6%	65.4%	0.68×	2.24
Zheng Qinwen −1.5 sets	8.5%	14.0%	31.6%	0.44×	7.13
Madison Keys −2.5 sets	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	78.68×	58.93
Zheng Qinwen −2.5 sets	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	78.68×	58.93

Set score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Madison Keys to win 2-0	50.3%	49.0%	34.6%	1.42×	2.04
Madison Keys to win 2-1	29.3%	21.8%	17.5%	1.24×	4.60
Zheng Qinwen to win 2-1	12.0%	18.3%	16.4%	1.12×	5.46
Zheng Qinwen to win 2-0	8.5%	12.2%	31.6%	0.39×	8.22

Straight sets 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Madison Keys in straight sets	50.3%	56.2%	34.6%	1.62×	1.78
Match in straight sets	58.8%	55.4%	66.1%	0.84×	1.81
At least one set dropped	41.3%	39.8%	33.9%	1.17×	2.51
Zheng Qinwen in straight sets	8.5%	13.0%	31.6%	0.41×	7.70

Total games 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 15.5 games	95.3%	93.4%	89.2%	1.05×	1.07
Under 31.5 games	91.5%	88.8%	93.4%	0.95×	1.13
Under 29.5 games	83.5%	79.1%	86.8%	0.91×	1.27
Over 17.5 games	82.6%	79.1%	71.7%	1.10×	1.27
Under 27.5 games	74.2%	73.7%	79.2%	0.93×	1.36
Under 26.5 games	69.8%	66.2%	75.9%	0.87×	1.51
Over 19.5 games	66.4%	66.2%	54.3%	1.22×	1.51
Under 25.5 games	65.0%	60.6%	72.0%	0.84×	1.65
Under 24.5 games	60.4%	60.6%	68.6%	0.88×	1.65
Over 20.5 games	59.3%	57.5%	47.3%	1.22×	1.74
Under 23.5 games	57.6%	57.5%	66.2%	0.87×	1.74
Over 21.5 games	53.8%	52.0%	42.6%	1.22×	1.92
Under 22.5 games	53.0%	52.0%	62.3%	0.83×	1.92
Over 22.5 games	47.0%	48.0%	37.7%	1.27×	2.08
Under 21.5 games	46.2%	48.0%	57.4%	0.84×	2.08
Over 23.5 games	42.4%	42.5%	33.8%	1.26×	2.35
Under 20.5 games	40.7%	42.5%	52.8%	0.81×	2.35
Over 24.5 games	39.6%	39.4%	31.4%	1.25×	2.54
Over 25.5 games	35.0%	39.4%	28.0%	1.41×	2.54
Under 19.5 games	33.6%	33.8%	45.7%	0.74×	2.96
Over 26.5 games	30.2%	33.8%	24.1%	1.40×	2.96
Over 27.5 games	25.8%	26.3%	20.8%	1.27×	3.80
Under 17.5 games	17.4%	20.9%	28.3%	0.74×	4.78
Over 29.5 games	16.5%	20.9%	13.2%	1.59×	4.78
Over 31.5 games	8.5%	11.2%	6.6%	1.69×	8.94
Under 15.5 games	4.7%	6.6%	10.8%	0.61×	15.16

Total sets 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 sets	58.8%	56.9%	66.1%	0.86×	1.76
Exactly 3 sets	41.3%	37.6%	33.9%	1.11×	2.66

Madison Keys v Zheng Qinwen — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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