Wu Yibing v Carlos Alcaraz — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 4 September 2026 · ATP · 2026

ATP Tour results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:04

Wu Yibing

13:00

Carlos Alcaraz

AI prediction

serve-hold No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Wu Yibing win

4.3%

Draw

0.0%

Carlos Alcaraz win

95.8%

4096

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
serve-hold	4096	13.89–20.93	0-3 56%	40%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Deciding set 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Match decided before the last set	87.1%	78.9%	96.8%	0.82×	1.27
Match to reach a 5th set	12.9%	21.1%	3.2%	6.53×	4.73

First set 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Carlos Alcaraz to win the first set	82.2%	81.1%	50.6%	1.60×	1.23
Wu Yibing to win the first set	17.8%	18.9%	49.4%	0.38×	5.30

First set / match 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Carlos Alcaraz first set and match	80.6%	76.3%	40.7%	1.87×	1.31
Wu Yibing first set, Carlos Alcaraz match	15.2%	30.2%	10.0%	3.02×	3.31
Wu Yibing first set and match	2.6%	5.5%	39.4%	0.14×	18.07
Carlos Alcaraz first set, Wu Yibing match	1.6%	5.5%	9.9%	0.55×	18.26

Games handicap 36

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Carlos Alcaraz +8.5 games	99.9%	95.6%	95.9%	1.00×	1.05
Carlos Alcaraz +9.5 games	100.0%	95.6%	97.9%	0.98×	1.05
Carlos Alcaraz +5.5 games	99.5%	95.6%	80.4%	1.19×	1.05
Carlos Alcaraz +6.5 games	99.7%	95.6%	88.1%	1.09×	1.05
Carlos Alcaraz +7.5 games	99.9%	95.6%	93.0%	1.03×	1.05
Carlos Alcaraz +3.5 games	98.6%	95.6%	65.2%	1.47×	1.05
Carlos Alcaraz +4.5 games	99.2%	95.6%	72.8%	1.31×	1.05
Carlos Alcaraz +2.5 games	97.7%	95.6%	59.5%	1.61×	1.05
Carlos Alcaraz +1.5 games	96.4%	95.6%	55.1%	1.73×	1.05
Carlos Alcaraz −1.5 games	88.9%	80.3%	45.9%	1.75×	1.25
Carlos Alcaraz −2.5 games	84.3%	74.5%	40.9%	1.82×	1.34
Carlos Alcaraz −3.5 games	78.6%	69.9%	33.5%	2.09×	1.43
Carlos Alcaraz −4.5 games	72.3%	65.1%	25.3%	2.57×	1.54
Wu Yibing +9.5 games	70.3%	65.1%	98.0%	0.66×	1.54
Carlos Alcaraz −5.5 games	65.1%	61.1%	17.4%	3.51×	1.64
Wu Yibing +8.5 games	61.3%	57.6%	95.8%	0.60×	1.74
Carlos Alcaraz −6.5 games	56.9%	53.6%	11.4%	4.70×	1.87
Wu Yibing +7.5 games	52.0%	50.7%	93.4%	0.54×	1.97
Carlos Alcaraz −7.5 games	48.0%	49.3%	6.6%	7.44×	2.03
Wu Yibing +6.5 games	43.1%	46.4%	88.6%	0.52×	2.15
Carlos Alcaraz −8.5 games	38.7%	42.4%	4.2%	10.19×	2.36
Wu Yibing +5.5 games	34.9%	38.9%	82.6%	0.47×	2.57
Carlos Alcaraz −9.5 games	29.7%	34.9%	2.0%	17.02×	2.87
Wu Yibing +4.5 games	27.7%	34.9%	74.7%	0.47×	2.87
Wu Yibing +3.5 games	21.4%	30.1%	66.5%	0.45×	3.33
Wu Yibing +2.5 games	15.7%	25.5%	59.1%	0.43×	3.93
Wu Yibing +1.5 games	11.1%	19.7%	54.1%	0.36×	5.08
Wu Yibing −1.5 games	3.6%	4.4%	44.9%	0.10×	22.88
Wu Yibing −2.5 games	2.3%	4.4%	40.5%	0.11×	22.90
Wu Yibing −3.5 games	1.4%	4.4%	34.8%	0.13×	22.90
Wu Yibing −4.5 games	0.8%	4.4%	27.2%	0.16×	22.91
Wu Yibing −5.5 games	0.5%	4.4%	19.6%	0.22×	22.91
Wu Yibing −6.5 games	0.3%	4.4%	11.9%	0.37×	22.91
Wu Yibing −7.5 games	0.1%	4.4%	7.0%	0.62×	22.91
Wu Yibing −8.5 games	0.1%	4.4%	4.1%	1.06×	22.91
Wu Yibing −9.5 games	0.0%	4.4%	2.1%	2.10×	22.91

Match winner 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Carlos Alcaraz to win	95.8%	94.6%	50.7%	1.87×	1.06
Wu Yibing to win	4.3%	5.4%	49.3%	0.11×	18.51

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of games	50.0%	50.5%	50.3%	1.00×	1.98
Even number of games	50.0%	49.5%	49.7%	1.00×	2.02

Set handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Carlos Alcaraz +3.5 sets	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	0.98×	1.02
Wu Yibing +3.5 sets	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	0.98×	1.02
Carlos Alcaraz +2.5 sets	99.4%	98.3%	96.2%	1.02×	1.02
Carlos Alcaraz +1.5 sets	98.0%	98.3%	67.6%	1.45×	1.02
Carlos Alcaraz −1.5 sets	85.2%	77.4%	33.8%	2.29×	1.29
Carlos Alcaraz −2.5 sets	55.5%	58.7%	3.0%	19.28×	1.71
Wu Yibing +2.5 sets	44.5%	41.3%	97.0%	0.43×	2.42
Wu Yibing +1.5 sets	14.8%	22.6%	66.3%	0.34×	4.42
Wu Yibing −1.5 sets	2.0%	1.7%	32.4%	0.05×	58.65
Wu Yibing −2.5 sets	0.6%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.85
Wu Yibing −3.5 sets	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	52.99×	58.93
Carlos Alcaraz −3.5 sets	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	52.99×	58.93

Set score 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Carlos Alcaraz to win 3-0	55.5%	50.5%	3.0%	16.60×	1.98
Carlos Alcaraz to win 3-1	29.7%	21.8%	3.0%	7.23×	4.59
Carlos Alcaraz to win 3-2	10.6%	18.3%	1.4%	12.69×	5.47
Wu Yibing to win 3-2	2.3%	5.2%	1.8%	2.86×	19.16
Wu Yibing to win 3-1	1.4%	5.2%	2.1%	2.40×	19.41
Wu Yibing to win 3-0	0.6%	5.1%	3.8%	1.34×	19.65

Straight sets 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Match in straight sets	56.1%	55.3%	6.8%	8.11×	1.81
Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets	55.5%	55.3%	3.0%	18.17×	1.81
At least one set dropped	43.9%	39.9%	93.2%	0.43×	2.51
Wu Yibing in straight sets	0.6%	5.8%	3.8%	1.54×	17.10

Total games 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 43.5 games	84.5%	79.1%	96.2%	0.82×	1.27
Over 27.5 games	82.2%	79.1%	36.7%	2.15×	1.27
Under 41.5 games	79.6%	74.4%	95.0%	0.78×	1.34
Under 39.5 games	73.6%	73.7%	93.9%	0.78×	1.36
Under 38.5 games	70.1%	73.6%	93.0%	0.79×	1.36
Over 29.5 games	69.7%	66.2%	29.8%	2.22×	1.51
Under 37.5 games	66.7%	66.2%	91.9%	0.72×	1.51
Under 36.5 games	63.6%	60.6%	91.4%	0.66×	1.65
Under 35.5 games	59.9%	57.5%	90.0%	0.64×	1.74
Over 31.5 games	57.5%	57.5%	20.5%	2.80×	1.74
Under 34.5 games	55.6%	57.5%	87.9%	0.65×	1.74
Over 32.5 games	52.1%	52.0%	16.5%	3.15×	1.92
Under 33.5 games	52.0%	52.0%	86.2%	0.60×	1.92
Under 32.5 games	47.9%	48.0%	83.5%	0.57×	2.08
Over 33.5 games	48.0%	48.0%	13.8%	3.49×	2.08
Over 34.5 games	44.4%	42.5%	12.1%	3.50×	2.35
Under 31.5 games	42.5%	42.5%	79.5%	0.53×	2.35
Over 35.5 games	40.1%	42.5%	10.0%	4.25×	2.35
Over 36.5 games	36.4%	39.4%	8.6%	4.56×	2.54
Over 37.5 games	33.3%	33.8%	8.1%	4.18×	2.96
Under 29.5 games	30.4%	33.8%	70.2%	0.48×	2.96
Over 38.5 games	29.9%	26.4%	7.0%	3.78×	3.79
Over 39.5 games	26.4%	26.3%	6.1%	4.33×	3.80
Over 41.5 games	20.4%	25.6%	5.0%	5.10×	3.90
Under 27.5 games	17.8%	20.9%	63.3%	0.33×	4.78
Over 43.5 games	15.5%	20.9%	3.8%	5.49×	4.78

Total sets 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 sets	56.1%	56.8%	37.5%	1.51×	1.76
Exactly 4 sets	31.1%	30.2%	5.1%	5.89×	3.32
Exactly 5 sets	12.9%	21.1%	3.2%	6.53×	4.73

Wu Yibing v Carlos Alcaraz — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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