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Air Force Falcons v Idaho State Bengals — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · NCAAB · 2027

NCAAB results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Air Force Falcons win
27.5%
Draw
0.0%
Idaho State Bengals win
72.5%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 68.99–75.20 69-75 0% 49% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Air Force Falcons to score 100+ 0.1% 0.4% 3.4% 0.10× 283.34
Air Force Falcons to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.52× 283.36
Air Force Falcons to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.87× 283.36
Air Force Falcons to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 19.47× 283.36
Idaho State Bengals to score 100+ 0.6% 0.4% 1.1% 0.33× 283.25
Idaho State Bengals to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.95× 283.35
Idaho State Bengals to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 12.98× 283.36
Idaho State Bengals to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 38.95× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.87× 283.35
H1 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Idaho State Bengals to win H1 61.5% 62.2% 38.2% 1.63× 1.61
Idaho State Bengals to win H1 61.5% 62.2% 38.2% 1.63× 1.61
Air Force Falcons to win H1 34.3% 33.1% 57.9% 0.57× 3.02
Air Force Falcons to win H1 34.2% 33.1% 57.9% 0.57× 3.02
H1 tied 4.3% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 tied 4.3% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 80.5 87.6% 87.7% 85.2% 1.03× 1.14
H1 over 56.5 86.5% 87.7% 87.5% 1.00× 1.14
H1 under 76.5 78.2% 77.4% 75.5% 1.03× 1.29
H1 under 76.5 79.0% 77.4% 75.5% 1.03× 1.29
H1 over 60.5 77.3% 77.4% 77.9% 0.99× 1.29
H1 over 60.5 76.6% 77.4% 77.9% 0.99× 1.29
H1 under 73.5 69.7% 67.4% 66.6% 1.01× 1.48
H1 under 73.5 69.1% 67.4% 66.6% 1.01× 1.48
H1 over 63.5 67.1% 67.4% 69.0% 0.98× 1.48
H1 over 63.5 67.6% 67.4% 69.0% 0.98× 1.48
H1 under 71.5 62.2% 62.7% 60.0% 1.04× 1.59
H1 under 71.5 62.6% 62.7% 60.0% 1.04× 1.59
H1 over 65.5 60.0% 62.7% 61.9% 1.01× 1.59
H1 over 65.5 60.3% 62.7% 61.9% 1.01× 1.59
H1 under 69.5 55.0% 58.2% 53.1% 1.10× 1.72
H1 under 69.5 54.9% 52.6% 53.1% 0.99× 1.90
H1 over 67.5 52.6% 52.6% 54.4% 0.97× 1.90
H1 over 67.5 52.7% 52.6% 54.4% 0.97× 1.90
H1 under 68.5 51.1% 52.6% 49.3% 1.07× 1.90
H1 under 68.5 51.2% 52.6% 49.3% 1.07× 1.90
H1 over 68.5 48.9% 47.4% 50.7% 0.93× 2.11
H1 over 68.5 48.8% 47.4% 50.7% 0.93× 2.11
H1 under 67.5 47.4% 47.4% 45.6% 1.04× 2.11
H1 under 67.5 47.3% 47.4% 45.6% 1.04× 2.11
H1 over 69.5 45.1% 47.4% 46.9% 1.01× 2.11
H1 over 69.5 45.0% 41.8% 46.9% 0.89× 2.39
H1 under 65.5 40.0% 37.3% 38.1% 0.98× 2.68
H1 under 65.5 39.7% 37.3% 38.1% 0.98× 2.68
H1 over 71.5 37.8% 37.3% 40.0% 0.93× 2.68
H1 over 71.5 37.4% 37.3% 40.0% 0.93× 2.68
H1 under 63.5 32.9% 32.6% 31.0% 1.05× 3.07
H1 under 63.5 32.4% 32.6% 31.0% 1.05× 3.07
H1 over 73.5 30.9% 32.6% 33.4% 0.98× 3.07
H1 over 73.5 30.3% 32.6% 33.4% 0.98× 3.07
H1 under 60.5 23.4% 22.6% 22.1% 1.02× 4.43
H1 under 60.5 22.7% 22.6% 22.1% 1.02× 4.43
H1 over 76.5 21.8% 22.6% 24.5% 0.92× 4.43
H1 over 76.5 21.0% 22.6% 24.5% 0.92× 4.43
H1 under 56.5 13.5% 12.3% 12.5% 0.98× 8.13
H1 over 80.5 12.4% 12.3% 14.8% 0.83× 8.14
H2 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Idaho State Bengals to win H2 62.5% 58.8% 38.5% 1.53× 1.70
Idaho State Bengals to win H2 62.5% 58.8% 38.9% 1.51× 1.70
Air Force Falcons to win H2 33.4% 36.3% 57.5% 0.63× 2.75
Air Force Falcons to win H2 33.4% 36.3% 56.9% 0.64× 2.75
H2 tied 4.1% 3.9% 4.1% 0.97× 25.35
H2 tied 4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 0.95× 25.35
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 88.5 86.6% 85.2% 79.8% 1.07× 1.17
H2 over 64.5 84.7% 81.8% 86.5% 0.95× 1.22
H2 under 84.5 78.1% 75.8% 74.1% 1.02× 1.32
H2 under 84.5 77.4% 75.8% 70.5% 1.07× 1.32
H2 over 68.5 75.4% 75.8% 75.7% 1.00× 1.32
H2 over 68.5 74.8% 72.2% 77.5% 0.93× 1.39
H2 under 81.5 69.2% 66.4% 65.8% 1.01× 1.51
H2 under 81.5 68.7% 66.4% 62.2% 1.07× 1.51
H2 over 71.5 66.0% 66.4% 66.4% 1.00× 1.51
H2 over 71.5 65.6% 66.4% 68.8% 0.97× 1.51
H2 under 79.5 62.5% 61.6% 59.8% 1.03× 1.62
H2 under 79.5 62.1% 61.6% 56.2% 1.10× 1.62
H2 over 73.5 59.1% 57.3% 60.4% 0.95× 1.74
H2 over 73.5 58.8% 57.3% 63.1% 0.91× 1.74
H2 under 77.5 55.4% 57.3% 53.0% 1.08× 1.74
H2 under 77.5 55.2% 57.3% 49.8% 1.15× 1.74
H2 over 75.5 51.9% 52.4% 53.4% 0.98× 1.91
H2 under 76.5 51.8% 52.4% 49.7% 1.05× 1.91
H2 over 75.5 51.8% 52.4% 56.4% 0.93× 1.91
H2 under 76.5 51.7% 52.4% 46.6% 1.12× 1.91
H2 under 75.5 48.1% 47.6% 46.6% 1.02× 2.10
H2 over 76.5 48.2% 47.6% 50.3% 0.95× 2.10
H2 under 75.5 48.2% 47.6% 43.6% 1.09× 2.10
H2 over 76.5 48.3% 47.6% 53.4% 0.89× 2.10
H2 over 77.5 44.8% 42.7% 50.2% 0.85× 2.34
H2 over 77.5 44.6% 42.7% 47.0% 0.91× 2.34
H2 under 73.5 40.9% 42.7% 39.6% 1.08× 2.35
H2 under 73.5 41.2% 42.7% 36.9% 1.16× 2.34
H2 over 79.5 37.9% 38.4% 43.8% 0.88× 2.61
H2 over 79.5 37.5% 38.4% 40.3% 0.95× 2.61
H2 under 71.5 34.4% 33.6% 31.2% 1.08× 2.97
H2 under 71.5 34.0% 33.6% 33.6% 1.00× 2.97
H2 over 81.5 30.8% 33.6% 34.2% 0.98× 2.97
H2 over 81.5 31.3% 33.6% 37.8% 0.89× 2.97
H2 under 68.5 25.2% 27.8% 22.5% 1.24× 3.59
H2 under 68.5 24.6% 24.2% 24.3% 1.00× 4.13
H2 over 84.5 22.6% 24.2% 29.5% 0.82× 4.13
H2 over 84.5 21.9% 24.2% 25.9% 0.94× 4.13
H2 under 64.5 15.3% 18.2% 13.5% 1.34× 5.50
H2 over 88.5 13.4% 14.8% 20.2% 0.73× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Idaho State Bengals leading at half time 61.5% 62.5% 38.2% 1.64× 1.60
Air Force Falcons leading at half time 34.3% 32.8% 57.9% 0.57× 3.05
Level at half time 4.3% 3.8% 3.9% 0.97× 26.40
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Idaho State Bengals +20.5 99.3% 97.4% 86.5% 1.13× 1.03
Idaho State Bengals +12.5 95.8% 97.4% 72.4% 1.35× 1.03
Idaho State Bengals +14.5 97.2% 97.4% 77.2% 1.26× 1.03
Idaho State Bengals +16.5 98.2% 97.4% 80.7% 1.21× 1.03
Idaho State Bengals +18.5 98.9% 97.4% 83.9% 1.16× 1.03
Idaho State Bengals +9.5 92.6% 91.1% 64.5% 1.41× 1.10
Idaho State Bengals +10.5 93.8% 91.1% 67.4% 1.35× 1.10
Idaho State Bengals +8.5 91.2% 91.1% 61.5% 1.48× 1.10
Air Force Falcons +20.5 90.6% 91.1% 96.5% 0.94× 1.10
Idaho State Bengals +7.5 89.6% 85.9% 58.7% 1.46× 1.16
Idaho State Bengals +6.5 87.8% 85.9% 55.7% 1.54× 1.16
Air Force Falcons +18.5 87.1% 85.9% 95.4% 0.90× 1.16
Idaho State Bengals +5.5 85.8% 85.9% 53.0% 1.62× 1.16
Idaho State Bengals +4.5 83.6% 81.1% 49.3% 1.64× 1.23
Air Force Falcons +16.5 82.6% 81.1% 94.0% 0.86× 1.23
Idaho State Bengals +3.5 81.1% 81.1% 45.9% 1.77× 1.23
Idaho State Bengals +2.5 78.5% 76.5% 42.3% 1.81× 1.31
Air Force Falcons +14.5 77.4% 76.5% 92.2% 0.83× 1.31
Idaho State Bengals +1.5 75.6% 76.5% 39.2% 1.95× 1.31
Air Force Falcons +12.5 71.3% 71.6% 89.9% 0.80× 1.40
Idaho State Bengals −1.5 69.1% 66.7% 34.6% 1.93× 1.50
Idaho State Bengals −2.5 65.6% 66.7% 32.0% 2.08× 1.50
Air Force Falcons +10.5 64.5% 61.9% 87.2% 0.71× 1.62
Idaho State Bengals −3.5 61.9% 61.9% 29.3% 2.12× 1.62
Air Force Falcons +9.5 60.9% 61.9% 85.3% 0.73× 1.62
Idaho State Bengals −4.5 58.1% 57.1% 26.3% 2.17× 1.75
Air Force Falcons +8.5 57.1% 57.1% 83.3% 0.68× 1.75
Idaho State Bengals −5.5 54.3% 52.4% 23.6% 2.22× 1.91
Air Force Falcons +7.5 53.4% 52.4% 81.0% 0.65× 1.91
Idaho State Bengals −6.5 50.5% 52.4% 21.2% 2.47× 1.91
Air Force Falcons +6.5 49.5% 47.6% 78.8% 0.60× 2.10
Idaho State Bengals −7.5 46.6% 47.6% 19.0% 2.50× 2.10
Air Force Falcons +5.5 45.7% 47.6% 76.4% 0.62× 2.10
Idaho State Bengals −8.5 42.9% 42.9% 16.7% 2.58× 2.33
Air Force Falcons +4.5 41.9% 42.9% 73.7% 0.58× 2.33
Idaho State Bengals −9.5 39.1% 38.1% 14.7% 2.60× 2.63
Air Force Falcons +3.5 38.1% 38.1% 70.8% 0.54× 2.63
Idaho State Bengals −10.5 35.5% 38.1% 12.8% 2.97× 2.63
Air Force Falcons +2.5 34.4% 33.3% 68.0% 0.49× 3.01
Air Force Falcons +1.5 30.9% 33.3% 65.4% 0.51× 3.01
Idaho State Bengals −12.5 28.7% 28.4% 10.1% 2.81× 3.53
Air Force Falcons −1.5 24.4% 23.5% 60.8% 0.39× 4.25
Air Force Falcons −2.5 21.5% 23.5% 57.7% 0.41× 4.25
Idaho State Bengals −14.5 22.6% 23.5% 7.8% 3.01× 4.25
Air Force Falcons −3.5 18.9% 18.9% 54.1% 0.35× 5.29
Idaho State Bengals −16.5 17.4% 18.9% 6.0% 3.17× 5.29
Air Force Falcons −4.5 16.4% 18.9% 50.7% 0.37× 5.30
Air Force Falcons −5.5 14.2% 14.1% 47.0% 0.30× 7.09
Air Force Falcons −6.5 12.2% 14.1% 44.3% 0.32× 7.09
Idaho State Bengals −18.5 12.9% 14.1% 4.6% 3.09× 7.09
Air Force Falcons −7.5 10.4% 14.1% 41.3% 0.34× 7.09
Air Force Falcons −8.5 8.8% 8.9% 38.5% 0.23× 11.25
Idaho State Bengals −20.5 9.4% 8.9% 3.5% 2.57× 11.25
Air Force Falcons −9.5 7.4% 8.9% 35.5% 0.25× 11.25
Air Force Falcons −10.5 6.2% 8.9% 32.6% 0.27× 11.25
Air Force Falcons −12.5 4.2% 2.6% 27.6% 0.09× 38.72
Air Force Falcons −14.5 2.8% 2.6% 22.8% 0.11× 38.73
Air Force Falcons −16.5 1.8% 2.6% 19.3% 0.13× 38.73
Air Force Falcons −18.5 1.1% 2.6% 16.1% 0.16× 38.74
Air Force Falcons −20.5 0.7% 2.6% 13.5% 0.19× 38.74
Highest scoring half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 highest scoring 78.7% 71.6% 70.4% 1.02× 1.40
2nd half highest scoring 77.1% 71.6% 72.5% 0.99× 1.40
1st half highest scoring 22.9% 28.4% 27.5% 1.03× 3.53
H1 highest scoring 21.3% 28.4% 29.6% 0.96× 3.53
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Idaho State Bengals at HT / Idaho State Bengals at FT 53.0% 51.1% 25.8% 1.98× 1.96
Air Force Falcons at HT / Air Force Falcons at FT 17.7% 15.5% 48.6% 0.32× 6.47
Air Force Falcons at HT / Idaho State Bengals at FT 16.5% 15.5% 9.3% 1.66× 6.47
Idaho State Bengals at HT / Air Force Falcons at FT 8.4% 8.3% 12.4% 0.67× 12.08
Level at HT / Idaho State Bengals at FT 3.0% 2.1% 1.6% 1.28× 47.74
Level at HT / Air Force Falcons at FT 1.3% 2.1% 2.3% 0.92× 47.77
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Idaho State Bengals to win 72.5% 68.7% 36.8% 1.87× 1.46
Air Force Falcons to win 27.5% 31.3% 63.2% 0.49× 3.20
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 51.6% 50.5% 51.6% 0.98× 1.98
Air Force Falcons even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Idaho State Bengals even 50.0% 50.5% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
Air Force Falcons odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Idaho State Bengals odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.6% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 48.4% 49.5% 48.4% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 92.8% 94.0% 94.2% 1.00× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 7.2% 6.0% 5.8% 1.04× 16.65
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Air Force Falcons under 79.5 86.1% 83.9% 61.6% 1.36× 1.19
Idaho State Bengals under 85.5 85.7% 83.9% 88.8% 0.94× 1.19
Idaho State Bengals over 65.5 84.8% 80.7% 67.8% 1.19× 1.24
Air Force Falcons over 59.5 83.3% 80.7% 92.0% 0.88× 1.24
Air Force Falcons under 76.5 78.2% 75.1% 52.3% 1.44× 1.33
Idaho State Bengals over 68.5 76.2% 75.1% 58.4% 1.29× 1.33
Idaho State Bengals under 82.5 77.4% 75.1% 83.3% 0.90× 1.33
Air Force Falcons over 62.5 74.4% 70.7% 87.3% 0.81× 1.41
Air Force Falcons under 74.5 71.7% 70.7% 45.9% 1.54× 1.41
Idaho State Bengals under 80.5 70.6% 70.7% 78.8% 0.90× 1.41
Idaho State Bengals over 70.5 69.3% 66.4% 51.4% 1.29× 1.51
Air Force Falcons over 64.5 67.3% 66.4% 83.3% 0.80× 1.51
Air Force Falcons under 72.5 64.5% 61.2% 39.2% 1.56× 1.63
Idaho State Bengals under 78.5 63.0% 61.2% 73.7% 0.83× 1.63
Idaho State Bengals over 72.5 61.6% 61.2% 44.7% 1.37× 1.63
Air Force Falcons over 66.5 59.6% 57.1% 78.7% 0.73× 1.75
Air Force Falcons under 70.5 56.6% 57.1% 33.3% 1.71× 1.75
Idaho State Bengals under 76.5 54.9% 52.3% 67.9% 0.77× 1.91
Air Force Falcons over 68.5 51.5% 52.3% 72.7% 0.72× 1.91
Air Force Falcons under 69.5 52.5% 52.3% 30.4% 1.72× 1.91
Idaho State Bengals over 74.5 53.5% 52.3% 38.3% 1.36× 1.91
Idaho State Bengals under 75.5 50.7% 52.3% 64.7% 0.81× 1.91
Idaho State Bengals over 75.5 49.3% 47.7% 35.3% 1.35× 2.09
Air Force Falcons under 68.5 48.5% 47.7% 27.3% 1.75× 2.09
Air Force Falcons over 69.5 47.5% 47.7% 69.6% 0.69× 2.09
Idaho State Bengals under 74.5 46.5% 47.7% 61.7% 0.77× 2.09
Idaho State Bengals over 76.5 45.1% 47.7% 32.1% 1.49× 2.09
Air Force Falcons over 70.5 43.4% 42.9% 66.7% 0.64× 2.33
Air Force Falcons under 66.5 40.4% 42.9% 21.3% 2.01× 2.33
Idaho State Bengals under 72.5 38.4% 38.8% 55.3% 0.70× 2.58
Idaho State Bengals over 78.5 37.0% 38.8% 26.3% 1.48× 2.58
Air Force Falcons over 72.5 35.6% 38.8% 60.8% 0.64× 2.58
Air Force Falcons under 64.5 32.7% 33.6% 16.7% 2.01× 2.98
Idaho State Bengals under 70.5 30.7% 33.6% 48.7% 0.69× 2.98
Idaho State Bengals over 80.5 29.4% 29.3% 21.2% 1.38× 3.42
Air Force Falcons over 74.5 28.3% 29.3% 54.1% 0.54× 3.42
Air Force Falcons under 62.5 25.6% 29.3% 12.7% 2.31× 3.42
Idaho State Bengals under 68.5 23.8% 24.9% 41.6% 0.60× 4.02
Idaho State Bengals over 82.5 22.6% 24.9% 16.7% 1.49× 4.02
Air Force Falcons over 76.5 21.8% 24.9% 47.7% 0.52× 4.02
Air Force Falcons under 59.5 16.8% 19.3% 8.0% 2.40× 5.18
Idaho State Bengals under 65.5 15.2% 19.3% 32.2% 0.60× 5.18
Idaho State Bengals over 85.5 14.3% 16.1% 11.2% 1.44× 6.21
Air Force Falcons over 79.5 13.9% 16.1% 38.4% 0.42× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 124.5 points 89.2% 85.0% 89.3% 0.95× 1.18
Under 164.5 points 89.7% 85.0% 82.3% 1.03× 1.18
Under 159.5 points 83.1% 80.6% 75.0% 1.07× 1.24
Over 129.5 points 82.1% 80.6% 83.3% 0.97× 1.24
Under 154.5 points 74.0% 70.8% 66.4% 1.07× 1.41
Over 134.5 points 72.8% 70.8% 74.7% 0.95× 1.41
Under 151.5 points 67.6% 65.9% 60.6% 1.09× 1.52
Over 137.5 points 66.2% 65.9% 69.0% 0.95× 1.52
Under 149.5 points 63.0% 61.5% 56.3% 1.09× 1.63
Over 139.5 points 61.5% 61.5% 64.6% 0.95× 1.63
Under 147.5 points 58.2% 56.5% 52.2% 1.08× 1.77
Over 141.5 points 56.7% 56.5% 60.4% 0.94× 1.77
Under 145.5 points 53.3% 52.3% 48.2% 1.09× 1.91
Over 143.5 points 51.7% 52.3% 56.3% 0.93× 1.91
Under 144.5 points 50.7% 52.3% 45.9% 1.14× 1.91
Over 144.5 points 49.3% 47.7% 54.1% 0.88× 2.10
Under 143.5 points 48.3% 47.7% 43.7% 1.09× 2.10
Over 145.5 points 46.7% 47.7% 51.8% 0.92× 2.10
Under 141.5 points 43.3% 43.5% 39.6% 1.10× 2.30
Over 147.5 points 41.8% 43.5% 47.8% 0.91× 2.30
Under 139.5 points 38.5% 38.5% 35.4% 1.09× 2.60
Over 149.5 points 37.0% 38.5% 43.7% 0.88× 2.60
Under 137.5 points 33.8% 34.1% 31.0% 1.10× 2.93
Over 151.5 points 32.4% 34.1% 39.4% 0.87× 2.93
Under 134.5 points 27.2% 29.2% 25.3% 1.15× 3.43
Over 154.5 points 26.0% 29.2% 33.6% 0.87× 3.43
Under 129.5 points 17.9% 19.4% 16.7% 1.16× 5.15
Over 159.5 points 16.9% 19.4% 25.0% 0.78× 5.15
Under 124.5 points 10.8% 15.0% 10.7% 1.39× 6.69
Over 164.5 points 10.3% 15.0% 17.7% 0.84× 6.69
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Idaho State Bengals to win both halves 35.0% 31.3% 14.5% 2.15× 3.20
Air Force Falcons to win both halves 8.4% 8.8% 33.2% 0.27× 11.31
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Idaho State Bengals by 6-10 18.8% 16.8% 10.8% 1.55× 5.97
Idaho State Bengals by 1-5 18.2% 16.8% 13.2% 1.27× 5.97
Idaho State Bengals by 11-15 15.6% 16.8% 6.1% 2.77× 5.97
Air Force Falcons by 1-5 13.3% 12.3% 16.2% 0.76× 8.11
Idaho State Bengals by 16-20 10.5% 12.3% 3.3% 3.71× 8.11
Air Force Falcons by 6-10 8.0% 7.5% 14.4% 0.52× 13.40
Idaho State Bengals by 21-25 5.7% 7.5% 1.9% 3.90× 13.40
Air Force Falcons by 11-15 3.9% 2.0% 11.6% 0.18× 49.29
Idaho State Bengals by 26+ 3.7% 2.0% 1.6% 1.30× 49.30
Air Force Falcons by 16-20 1.6% 2.0% 7.6% 0.27× 49.31
Air Force Falcons by 21-25 0.5% 2.0% 5.6% 0.36× 49.32
Air Force Falcons by 26+ 0.2% 2.0% 7.9% 0.26× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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