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Arizona State Sun Devils v San José State Spartans — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 25 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Arizona State Sun Devils win
99.6%
Draw
0.0%
San José State Spartans win
0.4%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 76.74–46.88 77-47 0% 62% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Arizona State Sun Devils to score 100+ 1.0% 0.4% 1.8% 0.20× 283.15
Arizona State Sun Devils to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.64× 283.35
Arizona State Sun Devils to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.91× 283.36
Arizona State Sun Devils to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7.58× 283.36
San José State Spartans to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.71× 283.36
San José State Spartans to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.74× 283.36
San José State Spartans to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 18.95× 283.36
San José State Spartans to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 37.89× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.32× 283.36
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Arizona State Sun Devils to win H1 92.9% 93.4% 56.4% 1.66× 1.07
San José State Spartans to win H1 5.6% 7.0% 39.9% 0.18× 14.19
H1 tied 1.4% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.88
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 73.5 90.3% 90.8% 85.6% 1.06× 1.10
H1 over 49.5 89.1% 87.7% 86.7% 1.01× 1.14
H1 under 69.5 81.2% 82.5% 76.2% 1.08× 1.21
H1 over 53.5 78.8% 77.4% 76.8% 1.01× 1.29
H1 under 66.5 71.7% 73.5% 67.1% 1.09× 1.36
H1 over 56.5 68.4% 67.4% 68.2% 0.99× 1.48
H1 under 64.5 64.3% 62.7% 60.7% 1.03× 1.59
H1 over 58.5 60.5% 62.7% 61.4% 1.02× 1.59
H1 under 62.5 56.2% 58.2% 53.7% 1.08× 1.72
H1 over 60.5 52.2% 52.6% 53.9% 0.98× 1.90
H1 under 61.5 52.0% 52.6% 49.8% 1.06× 1.90
H1 under 60.5 47.8% 47.4% 46.1% 1.03× 2.11
H1 over 61.5 48.0% 47.4% 50.2% 0.94× 2.11
H1 over 62.5 43.8% 41.8% 46.3% 0.90× 2.39
H1 under 58.5 39.5% 37.3% 38.6% 0.97× 2.68
H1 over 64.5 35.7% 37.3% 39.3% 0.95× 2.68
H1 under 56.5 31.6% 32.6% 31.8% 1.02× 3.07
H1 over 66.5 28.3% 26.5% 32.9% 0.81× 3.77
H1 under 53.5 21.2% 22.6% 23.2% 0.97× 4.43
H1 over 69.5 18.8% 17.5% 23.8% 0.73× 5.72
H1 under 49.5 10.9% 12.3% 13.3% 0.93× 8.14
H1 over 73.5 9.7% 9.2% 14.4% 0.64× 10.87
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Arizona State Sun Devils to win H2 94.1% 89.4% 56.0% 1.60× 1.12
San José State Spartans to win H2 4.7% 3.9% 40.6% 0.10× 25.35
H2 tied 1.2% 3.9% 3.4% 1.16× 25.38
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 79.5 89.7% 85.2% 82.0% 1.04× 1.17
H2 over 55.5 87.8% 85.2% 86.1% 0.99× 1.17
H2 under 75.5 80.8% 81.8% 73.0% 1.12× 1.22
H2 over 59.5 77.3% 75.8% 77.0% 0.98× 1.32
H2 under 72.5 71.6% 72.2% 64.1% 1.13× 1.39
H2 over 62.5 67.0% 66.4% 68.3% 0.97× 1.51
H2 under 70.5 64.5% 61.6% 57.8% 1.07× 1.62
H2 over 64.5 59.3% 57.3% 62.1% 0.92× 1.74
H2 under 68.5 56.8% 57.3% 51.3% 1.12× 1.74
H2 under 67.5 52.8% 52.4% 47.9% 1.09× 1.91
H2 over 66.5 51.3% 52.4% 55.4% 0.95× 1.91
H2 under 66.5 48.7% 47.6% 44.6% 1.07× 2.10
H2 over 67.5 47.2% 47.6% 52.1% 0.91× 2.10
H2 over 68.5 43.2% 42.7% 48.7% 0.88× 2.34
H2 under 64.5 40.7% 42.7% 37.9% 1.13× 2.35
H2 over 70.5 35.5% 38.4% 42.2% 0.91× 2.61
H2 under 62.5 33.0% 33.6% 31.7% 1.06× 2.97
H2 over 72.5 28.4% 27.8% 36.0% 0.77× 3.59
H2 under 59.5 22.7% 24.2% 23.0% 1.05× 4.13
H2 over 75.5 19.2% 18.2% 27.0% 0.67× 5.50
H2 under 55.5 12.2% 14.8% 13.9% 1.06× 6.76
H2 over 79.5 10.3% 14.8% 18.0% 0.82× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Arizona State Sun Devils leading at half time 92.9% 94.0% 56.4% 1.67× 1.06
San José State Spartans leading at half time 5.6% 6.5% 39.9% 0.16× 15.27
Level at half time 1.4% 3.8% 3.7% 1.03× 26.44
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Arizona State Sun Devils −1.5 99.4% 97.4% 58.7% 1.66× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils +1.5 99.7% 97.4% 61.2% 1.59× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils +2.5 99.7% 97.4% 63.3% 1.54× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils +3.5 99.8% 97.4% 65.7% 1.48× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils +4.5 99.9% 97.4% 67.8% 1.44× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils +5.5 99.9% 97.4% 70.1% 1.39× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils +6.5 99.9% 97.4% 72.3% 1.35× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils +7.5 99.9% 97.4% 74.5% 1.31× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils +8.5 100.0% 97.4% 76.5% 1.27× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils +9.5 100.0% 97.4% 78.7% 1.24× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils +10.5 100.0% 97.4% 80.4% 1.21× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils +12.5 100.0% 97.4% 83.8% 1.16× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils +14.5 100.0% 97.4% 86.7% 1.12× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils +16.5 100.0% 97.4% 89.1% 1.09× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils +18.5 100.0% 97.4% 91.1% 1.07× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils +20.5 100.0% 97.4% 92.7% 1.05× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils −2.5 99.2% 97.4% 56.7% 1.72× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils −3.5 98.9% 97.4% 54.2% 1.80× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils −4.5 98.6% 97.4% 52.2% 1.87× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils −5.5 98.2% 97.4% 49.7% 1.96× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils −6.5 97.7% 97.4% 47.6% 2.05× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils −7.5 97.2% 97.4% 44.8% 2.18× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils −8.5 96.5% 97.4% 42.0% 2.32× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils −9.5 95.7% 97.4% 39.3% 2.48× 1.03
Arizona State Sun Devils −10.5 94.7% 91.1% 36.8% 2.48× 1.10
Arizona State Sun Devils −12.5 92.4% 91.1% 32.1% 2.84× 1.10
Arizona State Sun Devils −14.5 89.3% 85.9% 27.9% 3.08× 1.16
Arizona State Sun Devils −16.5 85.4% 85.9% 24.3% 3.54× 1.16
Arizona State Sun Devils −18.5 80.7% 81.1% 20.7% 3.92× 1.23
Arizona State Sun Devils −20.5 75.1% 76.5% 18.0% 4.25× 1.31
San José State Spartans +20.5 24.9% 23.5% 82.0% 0.29× 4.25
San José State Spartans +18.5 19.3% 18.9% 79.3% 0.24× 5.29
San José State Spartans +16.5 14.6% 14.1% 75.7% 0.19× 7.09
San José State Spartans +14.5 10.7% 14.1% 72.1% 0.20× 7.09
San José State Spartans +12.5 7.6% 8.9% 67.9% 0.13× 11.25
San José State Spartans +10.5 5.3% 8.9% 63.2% 0.14× 11.25
San José State Spartans +2.5 0.8% 2.6% 43.3% 0.06× 38.74
San José State Spartans +3.5 1.1% 2.6% 45.8% 0.06× 38.74
San José State Spartans +4.5 1.4% 2.6% 47.8% 0.05× 38.73
San José State Spartans +5.5 1.8% 2.6% 50.3% 0.05× 38.73
San José State Spartans +6.5 2.3% 2.6% 52.4% 0.05× 38.73
San José State Spartans +7.5 2.8% 2.6% 55.2% 0.05× 38.73
San José State Spartans +8.5 3.5% 2.6% 58.0% 0.04× 38.73
San José State Spartans +9.5 4.3% 2.6% 60.7% 0.04× 38.72
San José State Spartans +1.5 0.6% 2.6% 41.3% 0.06× 38.74
San José State Spartans −1.5 0.3% 2.6% 38.8% 0.07× 38.74
San José State Spartans −2.5 0.3% 2.6% 36.7% 0.07× 38.74
San José State Spartans −3.5 0.2% 2.6% 34.3% 0.08× 38.74
San José State Spartans −4.5 0.1% 2.6% 32.2% 0.08× 38.74
San José State Spartans −5.5 0.1% 2.6% 29.9% 0.09× 38.74
San José State Spartans −6.5 0.1% 2.6% 27.7% 0.09× 38.74
San José State Spartans −7.5 0.1% 2.6% 25.5% 0.10× 38.74
San José State Spartans −8.5 0.0% 2.6% 23.5% 0.11× 38.74
San José State Spartans −9.5 0.0% 2.6% 21.3% 0.12× 38.74
San José State Spartans −10.5 0.0% 2.6% 19.6% 0.13× 38.74
San José State Spartans −12.5 0.0% 2.6% 16.2% 0.16× 38.74
San José State Spartans −14.5 0.0% 2.6% 13.3% 0.19× 38.74
San José State Spartans −16.5 0.0% 2.6% 10.9% 0.24× 38.74
San José State Spartans −18.5 0.0% 2.6% 8.9% 0.29× 38.74
San José State Spartans −20.5 0.0% 2.6% 7.3% 0.35× 38.74
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 71.7% 67.1% 66.7% 1.01× 1.49
1st half highest scoring 28.3% 32.9% 33.3% 0.99× 3.04
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 highest scoring 34.3% 31.9% 31.2% 1.02× 3.14
Q3 highest scoring 32.5% 31.9% 31.3% 1.02× 3.14
Q1 highest scoring 17.3% 18.3% 19.6% 0.94× 5.46
Q2 highest scoring 15.8% 18.3% 17.9% 1.02× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Arizona State Sun Devils at HT / Arizona State Sun Devils at FT 92.8% 94.0% 48.3% 1.95× 1.06
San José State Spartans at HT / Arizona State Sun Devils at FT 5.4% 8.3% 9.8% 0.85× 12.10
Arizona State Sun Devils at HT / San José State Spartans at FT 0.2% 2.1% 8.2% 0.26× 47.79
Level at HT / Arizona State Sun Devils at FT 1.4% 2.1% 1.9% 1.09× 47.77
San José State Spartans at HT / San José State Spartans at FT 0.3% 2.1% 30.1% 0.07× 47.79
Level at HT / San José State Spartans at FT 0.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.20× 47.79
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Arizona State Sun Devils to win 99.6% 97.5% 59.9% 1.63× 1.03
San José State Spartans to win 0.4% 2.5% 40.1% 0.06× 39.86
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Arizona State Sun Devils even 50.0% 50.5% 49.4% 1.02× 1.98
San José State Spartans even 51.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Total points odd 50.1% 50.5% 51.5% 0.98× 1.98
Arizona State Sun Devils odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.6% 0.98× 2.02
San José State Spartans odd 49.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Total points even 49.9% 49.5% 48.5% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 99.1% 97.0% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Match to go to overtime 0.9% 3.0% 4.4% 0.67× 33.60
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Arizona State Sun Devils to win Q1 82.9% 85.8% 54.7% 1.57× 1.17
San José State Spartans to win Q1 13.5% 11.4% 40.4% 0.28× 8.74
Q1 tied 3.7% 4.2% 4.9% 0.85× 23.98
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 over 22.5 89.7% 87.4% 88.8% 0.98× 1.14
Q1 under 38.5 88.3% 87.4% 84.8% 1.03× 1.14
Q1 over 25.5 78.8% 76.9% 77.6% 0.99× 1.30
Q1 under 35.5 76.8% 76.9% 73.2% 1.05× 1.30
Q1 over 27.5 68.8% 67.6% 67.7% 1.00× 1.48
Q1 under 33.5 66.6% 67.6% 64.0% 1.06× 1.48
Q1 over 29.5 57.3% 58.6% 56.9% 1.03× 1.71
Q1 under 31.5 54.9% 52.7% 54.0% 0.98× 1.90
Q1 over 30.5 51.2% 52.7% 51.2% 1.03× 1.90
Q1 under 30.5 48.8% 47.3% 48.8% 0.97× 2.11
Q1 over 31.5 45.1% 47.3% 46.0% 1.03× 2.11
Q1 under 29.5 42.7% 41.4% 43.1% 0.96× 2.42
Q1 over 33.5 33.4% 32.4% 36.0% 0.90× 3.08
Q1 under 27.5 31.2% 32.4% 32.3% 1.00× 3.08
Q1 over 35.5 23.2% 23.1% 26.8% 0.86× 4.33
Q1 under 25.5 21.2% 23.1% 22.4% 1.03× 4.33
Q1 over 38.5 11.7% 12.6% 15.2% 0.83× 7.95
Q1 under 22.5 10.3% 12.6% 11.2% 1.12× 7.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Arizona State Sun Devils to win Q2 82.1% 84.9% 52.9% 1.61× 1.18
San José State Spartans to win Q2 14.2% 7.8% 41.5% 0.19× 12.78
Q2 tied 3.7% 4.4% 5.7% 0.77× 22.92
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 38.5 89.2% 87.3% 85.6% 1.02× 1.15
Q2 over 22.5 88.7% 87.3% 87.4% 1.00× 1.15
Q2 under 35.5 78.3% 76.8% 74.6% 1.03× 1.30
Q2 over 25.5 77.3% 76.8% 76.2% 1.01× 1.30
Q2 under 33.5 68.3% 67.4% 65.6% 1.03× 1.49
Q2 over 27.5 67.1% 67.4% 66.7% 1.01× 1.49
Q2 under 31.5 56.8% 58.2% 55.7% 1.04× 1.72
Q2 over 29.5 55.3% 58.2% 55.8% 1.04× 1.72
Q2 under 30.5 50.7% 52.7% 50.1% 1.05× 1.90
Q2 over 30.5 49.3% 47.3% 49.9% 0.95× 2.11
Q2 under 29.5 44.7% 41.8% 44.2% 0.95× 2.39
Q2 over 31.5 43.2% 41.8% 44.3% 0.94× 2.39
Q2 under 27.5 32.9% 32.6% 33.3% 0.98× 3.06
Q2 over 33.5 31.7% 32.6% 34.4% 0.95× 3.06
Q2 under 25.5 22.7% 23.2% 23.8% 0.97× 4.31
Q2 over 35.5 21.7% 23.2% 25.4% 0.91× 4.31
Q2 under 22.5 11.3% 12.7% 12.6% 1.01× 7.90
Q2 over 38.5 10.8% 12.7% 14.4% 0.88× 7.90
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Arizona State Sun Devils to win Q3 84.4% 85.8% 53.3% 1.61× 1.17
San José State Spartans to win Q3 12.2% 11.3% 41.8% 0.27× 8.83
Q3 tied 3.3% 4.3% 4.9% 0.86× 23.47
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 41.5 88.6% 87.2% 85.1% 1.03× 1.15
Q3 over 25.5 88.3% 87.2% 86.9% 1.00× 1.15
Q3 under 38.5 77.6% 77.3% 73.9% 1.05× 1.29
Q3 over 28.5 77.0% 77.3% 76.4% 1.01× 1.29
Q3 under 36.5 67.8% 67.8% 64.6% 1.05× 1.48
Q3 over 30.5 66.9% 67.8% 66.8% 1.01× 1.48
Q3 under 34.5 56.5% 58.4% 54.6% 1.07× 1.71
Q3 over 32.5 55.4% 58.4% 56.1% 1.04× 1.71
Q3 under 33.5 50.6% 52.3% 49.1% 1.07× 1.91
Q3 over 33.5 49.4% 47.7% 50.9% 0.94× 2.10
Q3 under 32.5 44.6% 41.6% 43.9% 0.95× 2.40
Q3 over 34.5 43.5% 41.6% 45.4% 0.92× 2.40
Q3 under 30.5 33.1% 32.2% 33.2% 0.97× 3.10
Q3 over 36.5 32.2% 32.2% 35.4% 0.91× 3.10
Q3 under 28.5 23.0% 22.7% 23.6% 0.96× 4.40
Q3 over 38.5 22.4% 22.7% 26.1% 0.87× 4.40
Q3 under 25.5 11.7% 12.8% 13.1% 0.98× 7.83
Q3 over 41.5 11.4% 12.8% 14.9% 0.86× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Arizona State Sun Devils to win Q4 83.9% 75.0% 52.8% 1.42× 1.33
San José State Spartans to win Q4 12.7% 17.8% 41.5% 0.43× 5.63
Q4 tied 3.4% 5.2% 5.7% 0.91× 19.31
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 over 25.5 87.1% 85.6% 86.1% 0.99× 1.17
Q4 under 41.5 87.0% 85.6% 83.6% 1.02× 1.17
Q4 under 38.5 76.0% 76.9% 73.1% 1.05× 1.30
Q4 over 28.5 75.9% 76.9% 75.1% 1.02× 1.30
Q4 under 36.5 66.5% 67.4% 64.3% 1.05× 1.48
Q4 over 30.5 66.3% 67.4% 66.3% 1.02× 1.48
Q4 over 32.5 55.5% 58.4% 55.4% 1.05× 1.71
Q4 under 34.5 55.7% 58.4% 54.4% 1.07× 1.71
Q4 under 33.5 50.2% 52.5% 49.6% 1.06× 1.91
Q4 over 33.5 49.8% 47.5% 50.4% 0.94× 2.11
Q4 under 32.5 44.5% 41.6% 44.6% 0.93× 2.40
Q4 over 34.5 44.3% 41.6% 45.6% 0.91× 2.40
Q4 under 30.5 33.7% 32.6% 33.7% 0.97× 3.07
Q4 over 36.5 33.5% 32.6% 35.7% 0.91× 3.07
Q4 under 28.5 24.1% 23.1% 24.9% 0.93× 4.33
Q4 over 38.5 24.0% 23.1% 26.9% 0.86× 4.33
Q4 under 25.5 13.0% 14.4% 13.9% 1.04× 6.95
Q4 over 41.5 13.0% 14.4% 16.4% 0.88× 6.95
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San José State Spartans under 60.5 91.0% 86.4% 44.4% 1.95× 1.16
Arizona State Sun Devils under 88.5 87.4% 83.9% 93.1% 0.90× 1.19
Arizona State Sun Devils over 68.5 83.9% 80.7% 45.6% 1.77× 1.24
San José State Spartans under 57.5 84.0% 80.7% 34.9% 2.32× 1.24
San José State Spartans over 43.5 81.6% 80.7% 93.7% 0.86× 1.24
Arizona State Sun Devils under 85.5 79.6% 75.1% 90.2% 0.83× 1.33
San José State Spartans under 55.5 77.6% 75.1% 29.2% 2.57× 1.33
San José State Spartans over 40.5 95.8% 75.1% 96.4% 0.78× 1.33
Arizona State Sun Devils over 71.5 74.8% 70.7% 37.0% 1.91× 1.41
Arizona State Sun Devils under 83.5 73.0% 70.7% 87.7% 0.81× 1.41
San José State Spartans over 45.5 71.0% 70.7% 91.3% 0.77× 1.41
San José State Spartans under 53.5 69.8% 66.4% 23.7% 2.80× 1.51
Arizona State Sun Devils over 73.5 67.5% 66.4% 31.5% 2.11× 1.51
Arizona State Sun Devils under 81.5 65.6% 66.4% 84.6% 0.79× 1.51
San José State Spartans under 51.5 60.7% 61.2% 19.0% 3.22× 1.63
San José State Spartans over 47.5 60.1% 61.2% 88.4% 0.69× 1.63
Arizona State Sun Devils over 75.5 59.5% 57.1% 26.8% 2.13× 1.75
Arizona State Sun Devils under 79.5 57.4% 57.1% 81.3% 0.70× 1.75
San José State Spartans under 50.5 55.8% 57.1% 16.9% 3.39× 1.75
Arizona State Sun Devils over 77.5 51.1% 52.3% 22.6% 2.31× 1.91
Arizona State Sun Devils under 78.5 53.2% 52.3% 79.4% 0.66× 1.91
San José State Spartans under 49.5 50.6% 52.3% 14.9% 3.50× 1.91
San José State Spartans over 49.5 49.4% 47.7% 85.1% 0.56× 2.09
Arizona State Sun Devils under 77.5 48.9% 47.7% 77.4% 0.62× 2.09
Arizona State Sun Devils over 78.5 46.8% 47.7% 20.6% 2.31× 2.09
San José State Spartans over 50.5 44.2% 42.9% 83.1% 0.52× 2.33
Arizona State Sun Devils over 79.5 42.6% 42.9% 18.7% 2.29× 2.33
Arizona State Sun Devils under 75.5 40.5% 42.9% 73.2% 0.59× 2.33
San José State Spartans under 47.5 39.9% 38.8% 11.6% 3.34× 2.58
San José State Spartans over 51.5 39.3% 38.8% 81.0% 0.48× 2.58
Arizona State Sun Devils over 81.5 34.4% 33.6% 15.4% 2.18× 2.98
Arizona State Sun Devils under 73.5 32.5% 33.6% 68.5% 0.49× 2.98
San José State Spartans over 53.5 30.2% 33.6% 76.3% 0.44× 2.98
San José State Spartans under 45.5 29.0% 29.3% 8.7% 3.38× 3.42
Arizona State Sun Devils over 83.5 27.0% 29.3% 12.3% 2.38× 3.42
Arizona State Sun Devils under 71.5 25.2% 29.3% 63.0% 0.46× 3.42
San José State Spartans under 40.5 4.2% 24.9% 3.6% 6.87× 4.02
San José State Spartans over 55.5 22.4% 24.9% 70.8% 0.35× 4.02
Arizona State Sun Devils over 85.5 20.4% 24.9% 9.8% 2.54× 4.02
San José State Spartans under 43.5 18.4% 19.3% 6.3% 3.05× 5.18
Arizona State Sun Devils under 68.5 16.1% 19.3% 54.4% 0.35× 5.18
San José State Spartans over 57.5 16.0% 19.3% 65.1% 0.30× 5.18
Arizona State Sun Devils over 88.5 12.6% 16.1% 6.9% 2.32× 6.21
San José State Spartans over 60.5 9.0% 13.6% 55.6% 0.24× 7.37
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 108.5 points 94.4% 88.8% 88.9% 1.00× 1.13
Under 148.5 points 93.7% 88.8% 83.7% 1.06× 1.13
Under 143.5 points 88.1% 85.0% 76.7% 1.11× 1.18
Over 113.5 points 87.5% 85.0% 81.9% 1.04× 1.18
Under 138.5 points 79.4% 75.6% 67.9% 1.11× 1.32
Over 118.5 points 76.5% 75.6% 73.6% 1.03× 1.32
Under 135.5 points 72.6% 70.8% 62.4% 1.14× 1.41
Over 121.5 points 68.3% 65.9% 67.7% 0.97× 1.52
Under 133.5 points 67.5% 65.9% 58.0% 1.14× 1.52
Over 123.5 points 62.4% 61.5% 63.3% 0.97× 1.63
Under 131.5 points 62.0% 61.5% 53.9% 1.14× 1.63
Over 125.5 points 56.2% 56.5% 59.5% 0.95× 1.77
Under 129.5 points 56.1% 56.5% 49.5% 1.14× 1.77
Under 128.5 points 53.1% 52.3% 47.2% 1.11× 1.91
Over 127.5 points 50.0% 52.3% 55.1% 0.95× 1.91
Under 127.5 points 50.0% 47.7% 44.9% 1.06× 2.10
Over 128.5 points 46.9% 47.7% 52.8% 0.90× 2.10
Under 125.5 points 43.8% 43.5% 40.5% 1.07× 2.30
Over 129.5 points 43.9% 43.5% 50.5% 0.86× 2.30
Over 131.5 points 38.0% 38.5% 46.1% 0.84× 2.60
Under 123.5 points 37.6% 38.5% 36.7% 1.05× 2.60
Under 121.5 points 31.7% 34.1% 32.3% 1.06× 2.93
Over 133.5 points 32.5% 34.1% 42.0% 0.81× 2.93
Over 135.5 points 27.4% 29.2% 37.6% 0.78× 3.43
Under 118.5 points 23.5% 24.4% 26.4% 0.92× 4.10
Over 138.5 points 20.6% 24.4% 32.1% 0.76× 4.10
Under 113.5 points 12.5% 15.0% 18.1% 0.83× 6.69
Over 143.5 points 11.9% 15.0% 23.3% 0.64× 6.69
Over 148.5 points 6.3% 11.2% 16.3% 0.68× 8.97
Under 108.5 points 5.6% 11.2% 11.1% 1.01× 8.97
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Arizona State Sun Devils to win both halves 87.2% 86.2% 36.0% 2.39× 1.16
San José State Spartans to win both halves 0.1% 3.0% 20.4% 0.15× 33.85
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Arizona State Sun Devils by 26+ 57.9% 62.5% 12.6% 4.96× 1.60
Arizona State Sun Devils by 21-25 17.2% 16.8% 5.4% 3.11× 5.97
Arizona State Sun Devils by 16-20 12.4% 12.3% 8.0% 1.53× 8.11
Arizona State Sun Devils by 11-15 7.3% 7.5% 10.8% 0.69× 13.40
Arizona State Sun Devils by 6-10 3.5% 2.0% 12.9% 0.16× 49.30
Arizona State Sun Devils by 1-5 1.4% 2.0% 10.2% 0.20× 49.32
San José State Spartans by 1-5 0.3% 2.0% 10.2% 0.20× 49.33
San José State Spartans by 6-10 0.1% 2.0% 10.3% 0.20× 49.33
San José State Spartans by 11-15 0.0% 2.0% 7.6% 0.27× 49.33
San José State Spartans by 16-20 0.0% 2.0% 4.8% 0.43× 49.33
San José State Spartans by 21-25 0.0% 2.0% 2.7% 0.76× 49.33
San José State Spartans by 26+ 0.0% 2.0% 4.6% 0.44× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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